Markets spent the week toggling between earnings euphoria and macro fatigue. The tone started upbeat with Monday’s session, implying that traders were finally exhaling after weeks of shutdown noise and moving on even with the data handicap. Tech and AI hit fresh highs and yields slipped below 4.2%. Optimism peaked midweek, and despite a brief drop early Thursday the rally recovered quickly.
By Thursday, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley joined JPMorgan and Citi in showing credit resilience, while TSMC’s blowout numbers reinforced AI as a structural backbone of growth. Despite the continuing concentration, small caps did not lag and extended record runs on rate-cut optimism. Through all of this, gold continued to soar, easily sailing past $4,200.
A deeper look however, reveals the cracks. Oil stayed below $60 amid softening demand, and the dollar weakened… subtle signs that global slowdown anxiety hadn’t vanished. As the week closed, even after a strong tape, trader sentiment appeared to be relieved but restless. This is still the kind of rally that feels more like a sigh of relief than a move of conviction
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Next week opens on a knife’s edge of earnings momentum versus policy risk. With Powell’s dovish tone still echoing, futures fully price an October 29 rate cut… but markets will now demand data to justify it. The next big catalysts:
Major earnings from Tesla, Netflix, and Procter & Gamble, which will test both consumer and tech sentiment.
PMI data for a real-time (shutdown-exempted) pulse on growth.
And geopolitical flow: U.S.–China tariff diplomacy and Middle East shipping headlines, both wildcards for commodities.
Friday’s measured exhale, saw traders tentatively approaching risk, but keeping their hedges close. That’s the story in miniature: a market that wants to believe the worst is behind it, but still checks the exits before it dances.