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Today’s Bonus Story

Netflix Just Set a Hard Low—Is This The Start of a 40% Rally?

Authored by Sam Quirke. Published: 1/30/2026. 

Key Takeaways

• Netflix stock has stabilized after a brutal selloff, with last week’s earnings removing a major overhang.
• The stock is continuing to trade above its recent low as expectations build for a recovery rally. 
• Analysts are calling for as much as 40% upside in the months ahead. 

Shares of Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) may finally be showing signs that the worst is over. Falling as much as 40% from last summer’s all-time high, Netflix was among the worst-performing mega-cap stocks in 2025. Sentiment had become depressed, growth prospects had dimmed, and the company entered its Jan. 20 earnings report with low expectations. 

That may have helped: Netflix shares put in a clear low immediately after its Q4 earnings reportand have held support since.

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After the preceding selloff, a meaningful shift in tone appears to be emerging. With earnings now out of the way and much of the downside already priced in, the risk-reward balance is tilting in favor of the bulls—let’s take a closer look at how good it could get. 

The Earnings Band-Aid Has Been Ripped Off

The Q4 report wasn’t a blowout, but it didn’t need to be. Netflix topped analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings, enough to challenge the prevailing bearish narrative and force skeptics to reassess.

Revenue was up more than 17% year-over-year, free cash flow came in strong, and a global audience is approaching a billion users. Against that backdrop, the bearish case looks increasingly hard to defend.

After months of selling, the market was primed for further disappointment. Instead, Netflix delivered solid, resilient results consistent with a business that is still growing—just not at the rapid pace investors once expected. 

Importantly, the report removed a major source of uncertainty. Investors had been waiting to see whether Netflix would stumble again; with that hurdle cleared, the stock has some room to breathe.

Price Action Is Starting to Look Good

From a technical perspective, the post-earnings price action is encouraging. After gapping down the morning after the release, Netflix shares immediately bounced. Whether the stock can break its multi-month downtrend remains to be seen, but this is a positive start. 

This matters given the broader market backdrop. Equity markets have shifted back into risk-on mode recently, with the S&P 500 registering fresh record highs. In that environment, deeply discounted mega-cap names with improving fundamentals and bullish price action tend to attract buyers.

Analysts Are Leaning Back In

It’s no surprise analysts are beginning to turn more positive on Netflix. In the week since earnings, firms such as Loop Capital, UBS Group, and Robert W. Baird have reiterated Buy or equivalent ratings. Baird’s $120 price target is notable, implying upside of more than 40% from current levels.

Wedbush has also adopted a bullish view, highlighting Netflix’s advertising business as a key upside driver. The firm expects ad revenue to at least double through 2026, with further upside as pricing power and engagement improve. When multiple firms converge on a recovery thesis after a prolonged selloff, it’s a clear sign sentiment is shifting.

The Outlook From Here

That said, Netflix is not risk-free. Bears will point to significant uncertainty around the ongoing bidding dynamics for Warner Bros.

There is, however, a growing sense that once that deal is resolved—whatever the outcome—a major overhang will be lifted. Markets dislike uncertainty almost as much as bad news, and Netflix has been trading under that cloud for months.

The key for now is price action. If Netflix can continue holding above last week’s low in the coming weeks, it would lay important groundwork for a sustained recovery.

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