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Special Report

Five Below and Dollar Tree Earnings Signal a Shopper Shift

Author: Chris Markoch. Posted: 12/7/2025. 

Key Points

• Five Below delivered strong Q3 results with double-digit growth, rising comps, and raised guidance, signaling robust consumer interest in affordable discretionary goods.
• Dollar Tree also beat earnings expectations but showed a shift toward essentials, with margin pressure and declining consolidated revenue after divesting Family Dollar.
• Both stocks are breaking out similarly to 2022, suggesting potential inflationary pressures and a broader consumer shift toward value-driven shopping behavior.

Investors received solid third-quarter earnings reports from Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Five Below, Inc. (NASDAQ: FIVE) on Dec. 3. Both companies beat revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS).

Notably, both stocks are breaking out in a pattern similar to 2022, when inflation peaked and consumers shifted sharply toward value retailers.

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Much of the commentary has focused on a more “choiceful” customer — a polite way of saying consumers are bargain hunting. For investors, the renewed strength in discount retail may reflect more than price sensitivity—it could signal a broader shift in consumer behavior.

As the old saying goes: history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Are these earnings simply evidence of consumer resilience, or a prelude to renewed inflationary pressure?

Five Below: A Clean Beat and a Full-Blown Momentum Story

Five Below delivered exactly what momentum traders wanted in its Q3 earnings. The company reported double-digit revenue growth, a 14.3% jump in comparable sales and an EPS beat, supported by increased store traffic and higher average tickets.

The company added 49 net new stores in the quarter and raised full-year guidance, signaling confidence heading into the holiday season.

Unlike many big-box retailers struggling with slowing discretionary spending, Five Below continues to show that inexpensive, small luxuries are sticky across markets.

Its formula—trend-right goods at “why not?” prices—captures consumers who won’t splurge at mall prices but still want small treats.

That positioning mattered in 2022, when Five Below thrived because consumers didn’t just trade down—they traded down intentionally to keep spending. The current setup suggests a similar behavioral trend: inflation concerns aren’t killing demand; they’re redirecting it.

Dollar Tree: Another Beat, but a Different Trajectory

Dollar Tree also posted a strong earnings report, with beats on revenue and earnings, but its story is more nuanced. Following the divestiture of Family Dollar, consolidated revenue declined year-over-year and operating margins compressed.

Comparable sales rose 4.2% driven by stronger average tickets, while traffic dipped slightly.

Looking deeper into the report, consumables and discretionary sales grew by 3.5% and 4.8%, respectively. However, the sales mix continues to trend toward essentials over multiple years.

That’s a classic signal—when budgets tighten, households don’t necessarily shop less; they shop cheaper, shifting spending into necessities at fixed-price stores.

In short, Five Below points to consumers still embracing small joys, while Dollar Tree reflects households tightening grocery budgets. This bifurcation mirrors late-2021 and 2022: resilient spending, but shifted toward value, clearance racks and $1-to-$5 baskets.

What the Financials Say About the Consumer

Five Below’s results suggest consumers continue to make discretionary purchases while trading down from traditional retailers—managing inflation by seeking value rather than eliminating non-essentials.

Dollar Tree’s results paint a more defensive picture. Growth there is being driven by higher average tickets and small basket inflation, even as transactions slipped. The company is also facing margin pressure, higher selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, and lower consolidated revenue without Family Dollar—signs of stress among low-end consumers.

What the Charts May Say About Inflation

Over the past five years, both FIVE and DLTR have shown a similar trajectory: post-pandemic rallies, sharp resets as stimulus faded, and now renewed breakouts on the back of better-than-expected earnings. This pattern is not coincidental—discount retail often leads when inflation expectations rise.

These breakouts suggest markets may be pricing in:

• Slower progress on disinflation
• A sticky floor under consumer pricing
• Renewed pressure on household budgets

Importantly, the 2022 story wasn’t driven solely by Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings. It was behavioral: consumers redefined value. The breakouts we’re seeing now imply a similar narrative could shape consumer sentiment going forward.

The Market Isn’t Waiting for Data

Investors will get more clarity on Dec. 5 when the belated September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is released. Consensus expectations sit near 2.8%. A print at or below that level would confirm muted but persistent inflation; a reading that moves higher toward 3% or above would make 2022’s pattern look less like coincidence and more like foreshadowing.

But the key point is this: discount chains are rallying ahead of the data. Markets trade on anticipation, not confirmation.

Five Below reflects consumers choosing value without abandoning discretionary identity. Dollar Tree reflects consumers tightening at the pantry level. Together, they sketch the same macro portrait that preceded last cycle’s inflation peak: consumers who are still spending—but are shopping smarter.

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