Banks Boost Gold Forecasts: One Sees +30% Bull-Case Potential
Written by Leo Miller. Published 9/22/2025.
Key Points
Gold has been soaring, and banks see more room for the metal to run.
With inflation still running relatively hot and the market expecting further rate cuts, gold might continue hitting new all-time highs.
While most pin forecasts around the $4,000 mark, Goldman Sachs sees the potential for a much bigger move.
Over the past several years, so-called “gold bugs” have emerged as some of the market’s most accurate forecasters. As of the September 19 close, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD) fund has rallied nearly 118% over three years. Gold’s spot price now trades around $3,680 per ounce, up from roughly $1,675 in 2022.
Several investment banks expect gold to climb even higher, with multiple analysts raising their price targets. Below, we break down the key trends fueling gold’s gains and outline how far these forecasts could drive the metal’s rally. We also highlight reliable strategies to capitalize on an extended upswing.
Inflation Still Well Above Fed’s 2% Target, Rate Cuts on the Way
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Persistent inflation, which remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, has been a major catalyst for gold’s advance. High inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat-denominated assets, making non-yielding gold a more attractive store of value.
For example, a dollar-denominated bond yielding 5% with 6% inflation would suffer a 1% loss in real terms. This gap between nominal yield and inflation is known as the real yield. When real yields fall—or go negative—gold often outperforms, bolstered further by its “safe-haven” appeal amid economic or geopolitical volatility.
In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year. Despite inflation still running above target, the Fed trimmed its funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%–4.50%. Markets now assign a high probability to two more rate cuts in 2025, suggesting real yields may decline further and gold could push higher.
Analysts See 8% Average Upside, With Bull Case as High as 30%
Deutsche Bank recently lifted its 2026 gold target to $4,000 per ounce, citing former President Trump’s repeated attempts to influence Fed policy. One of Trump’s appointees, Stephen Miran, was the lone governor to back a 50-basis-point cut in September—though others, like Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, voted against it. If political pressure accelerates rate cuts and sparks higher inflation, gold stands to benefit.
Swiss bank UBS boosted its target to $3,900 by mid-2026, pointing to negative real U.S. yields and rising geopolitical tensions. Australia’s ANZ Group expects gold to reach $4,000 by June 2026. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs projects $4,000 by mid-2026, with an extreme bull case of $5,000 per ounce—assuming investors shift just 1% of privately held U.S. Treasuries into gold.
Excluding Goldman’s most aggressive scenario, the average of these forecasts implies roughly an 8% upside. Including the full range of targets, potential gains span about 6% to 36% from current levels.
GLD, GDX, and GDXJ Offer Different Ways to Play Gold
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD) remains the simplest way to track gold’s price, though its 0.40% expense ratio slightly erodes returns compared to holding physical bullion.
For investors seeking leveraged exposure, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX) and its junior counterpart, the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDXJ), offer baskets of gold-mining stocks. GDX focuses on large-cap miners, while GDXJ targets smaller exploration firms. Although GDXJ typically carries higher volatility, both funds have delivered similar three-year returns—214% for GDX and 226% for GDXJ.
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