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Saturday’s Bonus Article

Advanced Micro Devices Is the Most Compelling AI Trade for 2026

Authored by Thomas Hughes. Published: 12/31/2025. 

What You Need to Know

• Advanced Micro Devices is the most compelling AI trade for 2026 because of its MI450 product launch.
• Revenue and earnings will surge dramatically as soon as the first quarter of availability, and analysts underestimate the strength.
• A robustly bullish analyst sentiment trend underpins an equally robust stock price outlook.

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) looks like one of the most compelling AI plays for 2026 because of its position in the GPU market and the expected launch of its MI450 line, which could materially boost revenue and earnings.

AMD plans to launch its MI450 AI chips in 2026, potentially making it as attractive to hyperscalers as NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

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Currently a niche player because it has lacked rack-scale capability, AMD could become a direct competitor with the MI450 in a market so hot that capacity may be tight for years. Some customers are reportedly rationing supply; AI trainers, model builders, and inference services can’t get enough.

An AMD Revenue Surge Is Coming, and It Isn’t Priced In

After MI450 chips enter production, AMD products are likely to see an immediate spike in demand that should show up in second-half 2026 results. Some analysts estimate demand for NVIDIA GPUs at roughly 10-to-1 versus available supply.

If AMD experienced comparable demand, revenue could surge — potentially reaching $50 billion quarterly in H2 2026, more than 400% year-over-year versus Q3 and Q4 2025 — growth that is not currently priced in.

This is highly speculative, but it highlights how a stronger-than-expected MI450 ramp could drive meaningful year-over-year growth in Q3 and Q4 2026 that isn’t reflected in today’s consensus forecasts.

Analysts have been hesitant to raise forward revenue and earnings estimates, setting the market up for a robustly bullish upgrade cycle in 2026. As of the end of 2025, consensus for Q3 2026 is $11.55 billion and $13.4 billion for Q4, suggesting significant outperformance is possible even if high-end targets are not reached.

Longer-term forecasts are also tepid, which implies AMD’s revenue could accelerate before normalizing in late 2027 or early 2028.

Analysts have not been shy about their stock price forecasts. In 2025 coverage grew roughly 30% to 42 analysts, sentiment firmed to Moderate Buy (approaching Strong Buy), and the consensus stock price target rose by 42%.

That implies about 30% upside in 2026, and the high-end range — likely to widen as the year progresses — adds nearly 40% potential upside. The consensus target of $277 would set a new all-time high and break the stock out of its consolidation.

Institutional trends also support the price trajectory. Institutions hold about 72% of AMD and have been accumulating through the year, though selling activity has also been elevated and contributed to H2 2025 volatility. Given the stock’s discount and the valuation outlook, institutions will probably continue accumulating in 2026.

Valuation and Technical Targets Suggest 50% or More Upside in 2026

AMD wasn’t cheap in 2025 — trading at about 55x current-year earnings — but that multiple reflects a robust growth outlook that many consider conservative. On a 2030 basis the stock trades at roughly 9x, and in the bull case described it could fall below 5x, implying massive upside versus the broader S&P 500. If AMD retains a premium, upside could run into the 500% range or greater.

Technically, the outlook is mixed: the stock surged in 2025 and then pulled back sharply. Despite the pullback, the initial surge may have been the first wave tied to GPU demand. In that scenario, AMD could begin rebounding in early 2026 as market dynamics shift from profit-taking to accumulation.

Investors should watch the $200 level — it aligns with prior resistance and the top of an open price gap, which now provides support for the market.

It’s a critical pivot and breakout point that could bring robust targets into play. AMD previously traded within a roughly $115 range; if it replicated that move and rose $115 from current support, it would represent more than 50% upside.

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