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Regards,

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Director of Research, Stansberry Research

---

Today’s Featured News

Holiday Spending to Hit $1 Trillion—Time to Buy This Retail ETF?

Author: Jordan Chussler. Publication Date: 11/24/2025. 

What You Need to Know

• Consumer discretionary stocks have been uninspiring in 2025, but with Christmas approaching, that could change. 
• For the first time ever, holiday spending in the United States is projected to surpass $1 trillion.
• The VanEck Retail ETF can provide exposure for investors hoping for a near-term rally through the end of the year.

Between tariffs, sticky inflation, and a weak U.S. dollar, 2025 has been a difficult year for the consumer discretionary sector. When household budgets are strained, consumers prioritize essentials while new cars, electronics, vacations, and restaurant meals get deferred.

That reality shows in the numbers: the consumer discretionary sector’s year-to-date gain of 0.51% is the second-worst performance among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors. Only consumer staples, down 0.90%, has fared worse this year.

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Those trends may persist into 2026. But with the holidays just around the corner, near-term dynamics can change quickly. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects U.S. holiday spending will reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion for the first time ever.

That would be a 3.7% increase from 2024’s $976.1 billion.

And while the consumer discretionary sector has broadly underperformed this year, the VanEck Retail ETF (NASDAQ: RTH) can give investors exposure to leading companies in the space that may benefit from stronger holiday spending.

The Who’s Who of Consumer Discretionary Stocks

The fund’s roughly 11% gain in 2025 trails the S&P 500 but has outperformed the broader consumer discretionary sector.

That outperformance stems from the ETF’s holdings. According to the fund’s prospectus, it seeks to replicate the MVIS® US Listed Retail 25 Index (MVRTHTR), which tracks companies involved in retail distribution, e-commerce, multi-line and specialty retail, and food staples.

In short, the ETF concentrates many of the biggest consumer names heading into the holidays. Among its top holdings are mega-cap giants Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart (NYSE: WMT), and Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), which together account for nearly 38% of the fund’s portfolio.

The remaining 62% is diversified across prominent consumer names in the S&P 500, including home improvement retailers Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW), off-price apparel and footwear chains TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) and Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST), and retailers such as Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA), lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), and Target (NYSE: TGT).

A DIY Santa Claus Rally for Your Portfolio

The ETF offers roughly 80.5% exposure to specialty retail, positioning shareholders to benefit if consumer spending ramps up during the late-November and December shopping season. Consumer sentiment has dipped—the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 51.0 in November from 53.6 in October, and down from 71.8 a year earlier—but spending may still hold up.

Despite lower confidence, Americans are still expected to spend on discretionary items through year-end. A Talker Research study found nearly one in three shoppers expects to slip into debt this holiday season. The study also found that 51% of shoppers created a holiday budget this year, and of those, 64% have already overspent or expect to do so.

That’s encouraging for retailers—and for investors in the VanEck Retail ETF. The ETF carries a low expense ratio of 0.35% and currently yields about 0.70%, or $1.73 per share annually, at current prices.

Is RTH a Buy Ahead of Black Friday?

The fund doesn’t boast heavy institutional ownership—under 26%—but it has seen net inflows over the past 12 months: $45.14 million in inflows versus $6.33 million in outflows.

Meanwhile, Wall Street’s bears appear to be staying away as the holiday season approaches. Short interest stands at just 0.69%—about a 7% decrease versus last month—suggesting limited bearish positioning heading into Q4.

The fund’s average daily volume is light—roughly 5,005 shares per day—which may limit liquidity for some investors. Of the ETF’s 25 holdings, and across 628 analyst ratings, no company in the portfolio is rated Reduce, Sell, or Strong Sell.

For investors eyeing a potential Santa Claus rally, the VanEck Retail ETF offers diversified exposure to leading retail names during a period of historically strong consumer spending.

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