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LLY Booms, Then Busts: Stellar Guidance vs HIM’S Oral Undercut

Reported by Leo Miller. Date Posted: 2/5/2026. 

In its latest earnings report, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) once again showed why it is the world’s most valuable healthcare stock. As of the Feb. 5 close, Eli Lilly’s market capitalization exceeds $900 billion, making it worth more than $300 billion above the next-largest company in the sector, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ).

Shares jumped more than 10% on Feb. 4 after the earnings release, then were sharply whipsawed the following day, falling nearly 8% after an announcement from Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS). Despite that noise, with strong growth expected in 2026 and a potential blockbuster oral drug on the horizon, Eli Lilly remains difficult to bet against. All data is as of the Feb. 5 close unless otherwise indicated.

Lilly Provides Stunning 2026 Guidance, Catapulting Shares

Lilly’s Q4 2025 results were impressive. The company reported sales up 43% to $19.3 billion, well above expectations of $17.9 billion (which implied 33% growth). Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 42% to $7.54, beating estimates of $7.48 (which implied 41% growth).

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In Brief

• Eli Lilly shares gained mightily after the company released its latest earnings report, with 2026 guidance coming in well past expectations.
• However, HIMS stoked fears around LLY’s oral GLP-1 potential the next day, wiping out much of the stock’s gain.
• After Lilly’s earnings, updated price targets imply significant upside ahead for the stock.

The standout, however, was Lilly’s 2026 guidance. Using midpoint figures, the company expects full-year revenue of $81.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $34.25 — growth rates of roughly 25% and 41%, respectively. Those figures comfortably exceeded consensus estimates, which projected about 19% revenue growth and 36% adjusted EPS growth.

By contrast, Lilly’s chief rival, Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO), forecasted sales to decline by 5% to 13% in 2026, highlighting a widening performance gap. Lilly’s share of the U.S. incretin market (GLP-1 and similar drugs) continues to grow: at the end of 2025 its share stood at over 60%, versus Novo’s 39% — a meaningful shift from near parity just a year earlier.

That divergence is backed by clinical data. A 2025 study showed Lilly’s injectable diabetes and weight-loss drug tirzepatide produced nearly 50% more weight loss than Novo’s injectable semaglutide, which helps explain Lilly’s advantage in prescriptions.

HIMS Rains on LLY’s Parade, Introducing Low-Cost Oral Copycat

Oral medications are the next battleground for Lilly and Novo. Novo’s oral semaglutide is already FDA-approved, and Lilly plans to launch its oral candidate, orforglipron, in the U.S. in Q2 2026, with broader international launches targeted for 2027. Many view orforglipron as Lilly’s next potential blockbuster because it can reach patients who avoid injections and help patients maintain weight loss after stopping injectables.

On Feb. 5, Hims & Hers Health announced it would begin offering compounded, copycat versions of Novo’s oral semaglutide, pricing the pill at $49 for the first month and $99 thereafter. That undercuts Novo’s monthly pricing by about $100 and is well below the $149 to $399 monthly range Lilly plans for orforglipron, depending on dose. The announcement prompted a 7.8% drop in Lilly shares on Feb. 5.

Investors worry both that Hims & Hers’ lower pricing could siphon demand from orforglipron and that Hims might attempt to offer a copycat of Lilly’s drug. While the impact on the oral market is uncertain, there is evidence Lilly can absorb the challenge.

UBS Securities analyst Michael Yee estimates there have been roughly 1 million prescriptions written for compounded GLP-1s, compared with about 100 million prescriptions across Novo and Lilly’s branded GLP-1 franchises. That suggests compounded products represent a small slice of total demand — meaning Hims could be a nuisance but is unlikely to dramatically derail orforglipron’s growth trajectory.

Updated Targets Eye 25% Upside in LLY Shares

With orforglipron’s potential launch approaching and continued strong demand for injectable products, the outlook for Lilly shares remains constructive. The MarketBeat consensus price target near $1,200 implies roughly 18% upside. Notably, analyst targets updated the day after Lilly’s earnings averaged $1,273, which would imply about 25% upside from current levels.

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