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Taking the Minerals Fight to China

For a long time, it seemed easier for America to outsource critical minerals and let China dominate the supply chain.

Now the U.S. is realizing that may have been a costly mistake.

Because graphite is not optional. It is used in batteries, industrial systems, and technologies tied directly to energy storage and modern defense. And right now, America is still playing catch-up in a market China shaped.

That is why the timing here is so important.

This domestic supplier is building into exactly the kind of gap Washington now wants to close. Not years from now. Right as the urgency is getting harder to ignore.

America may have been late.

That does not mean Wall St. has to be.

---

Today’s Bonus Content

Dollar General Holds Its Ground at Critical Level, Signals Buy

Written by Thomas Hughes. Posted: 3/13/2026. 

Key Points

• Dollar General is well-positioned to execute its Back-to-Basics strategy, sustain growth and cash flow.
• Analysts and institutions support the stock, indicating a value, but upside may be limited until later in the year.
• Cautious guidance sent shares plunging, setting the stage for future outperformance and a potential price recovery.
• Special Report: 3 tickers just showed unusual early patterns. See the Trading Ideas report now.(From Trading Ideas)

Dollar General (NYSE: DG) issued a weak 2026 forecast on March 12, sending its shares down about 10% at the open. While a 10% decline is painful and a deeper drop was possible, what happened next mattered most. The pullback brought DG’s price into a significant support zone that lined up with a prior breakout and reversal pattern, and buyers stepped in.

The stock quickly recovered roughly half its losses, confirming support not only at this key level but also at a pair of long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs), which strengthened the signal. That confirmation, together with a Golden Crossover in the EMAs, pointed to a long-term bullish shift and triggered accumulation. If the market follows through, any dip below $128 is unlikely to persist.

BREAKING: A C$26M Company Just Responded to the Pentagon’s Call for Critical Minerals. (Ad)

One micro-cap subsea mining company just submitted a formal bid in response to a U.S. Defense Industrial Base Consortium solicitation to provide a reliable supply of Nickel to the United States. The DIBC, managed by Advanced Technology International on behalf of the DoW, issued this RPP in February 2026 targeting nickel, a critical mineral used in aircraft, missiles, semiconductors, and defense technologies—the Consortium provides non-dilutive financing for selected contractors, meaning potential government-backed capital without issuing new shares.

The urgency is not theoretical—China controls approximately 80% of global cobalt refining and 90% of rare earth processing and imposed defense-targeted export restrictions in December 2025. Management brings 25+ years of offshore experience from ConocoPhillips and BP, with roughly C$26 million market cap.View the full report here

Institutions Buy Dollar General Aggressively in 2026

The institutional data reported by MarketBeat shows institutions are buying the dip. On a trailing-12-month basis they registered four consecutive quarters of net buying (including the first two months of Q1 2026), an accelerating pace of purchases versus sales, and a multiyear high in early Q1.

Because institutions own nearly 92% of the stock, the market has strong support and a meaningful tailwind for any rebound.

Analysts also offer some support, but upside may be limited until later in the year. Post-release updates included cautionary notes focused on slowing same-store sales and cautious guidance. Still, most ratings and price targets were maintained, leaving the underlying trend intact.

The current consensus from 30 analysts is a Hold, with a 46% Buy-side bias. That bias isn’t strong, and the consensus price target implied the stock was fairly valued as of the close before the earnings report.

One trigger for a stronger rebound would be improving analyst forecasts, which could be driven by upcoming earnings and continued execution on the turnaround plan.

Dollar General Falls After Strong Report; Guides for Growth

Dollar General delivered a solid quarter: revenue rose 5.9% year-over-year to nearly $11 billion, driven by new stores and positive comps. Same-store sales increased 4.3%, with traffic up 2.6% and transactions up 1.7%. Revenue beat MarketBeat’s consensus by about 75 basis points, and earnings topped estimates as well. The company’s focus on rationalization, store improvements and cost controls is widening margins. GAAP EPS came in at $1.93, a nearly 15% gain from a year earlier, and margins are expected to remain healthy.

Guidance was the area of concern — management forecast revenue growth slowing to about 3.95%, below the 4.25% consensus — a likely reflection of a cautious stance. Nevertheless, Dollar General’s results show momentum heading into the year, and there is potential for consumer tailwinds in 2026. Tax refund season is underway, and larger-than-usual refunds are injecting cash across Dollar General’s customer base.

Balance sheet highlights add another reason for ownership, reflecting the impact of the turnaround. Total assets fell slightly year over year while liabilities declined more, producing roughly a 15% increase in shareholders’ equity and preserving the company’s ability to return capital. Management paused buybacks to preserve cash while rationalizing inventory and investing in remodels, but the dividend continues. The dividend yield was about 1.7% as of March 2026, and investors can reasonably expect annual increases and for buybacks to resume, possibly by the fiscal year’s end.

Dollar General Catalysts in 2026: Better Stores

One key catalyst is the company’s Back to Basics strategy. Dollar General is remodeling and updating stores, reducing excess inventory, improving merchandise quality and addressing supply-chain issues. Together, these efforts set the stage for better-than-expected comps and improved margins, while concepts like DG Wellness and pOpshelf help attract and retain new customers.

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