RJ Hamster
This Is the Real Energy Story
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
Is this a 20-year ‘not war’?… There’s more than oil in the strait… ‘We’re running out of $60 oil’… Oil is worthless without refineries… Navy tanker escorts? Not yet…
Is the U.S. at war with Iran?
It sounds like a simple enough question.
But the U.S. Constitution says our military isn’t supposed to go to war unless Congress approves it, and that hasn’t happened.
Still, the executive branch of our government has a history of ignoring this apparent inconvenience.
And it’s worth pointing out that Congress never declared war on Korea, Vietnam, or Afghanistan (among other modern military engagements). That didn’t stop these conflicts from being drawn out and costing many American lives.
So the question for investors today isn’t “Are we at war with Iran?” It’s “What does a longer conflict in Iran mean for investors?”
The “war” certainly has the potential to impact portfolios this year – and maybe even longer term.
Since the U.S. began its attacks on Iran two weeks ago, the market has been choppy as oil and gas prices have risen.
So the conflict has important implications for energy stocks, which, as I (Dan Ferris) told you last week, could be “the trade of the year… maybe of the decade.” However, as I’ll explain today, the war is not the real driver of that trend.
But before we get to that, let’s look at another commodity the war is driving up…
Oil and gas aren’t the only important commodities that move through the Strait of Hormuz…
Last Friday, I mentioned the four ingredients of modern living: cement, steel, plastic, and ammonia (for fertilizer).
Various estimates suggest roughly half the world’s population is fed by food grown with nitrogen-based fertilizers (and this nitrogen is produced from ammonia).
Roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. About half of global seaborne sulfur trade passes through the strait, as does nearly 50% of global urea exports. Roughly 90% of sulfur demand is used for sulfuric acid, 60% of which is used to make fertilizers. Urea is also used to make fertilizers.
With the strait closed, prices are already rising. For example, the price of urea is up 35% this year.
Fertilizer stocks have also done very well lately, with three of the biggest names – CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS), and Nutrien (NTR) – up between 30% and 75% so far this year. We’re up nearly 70% on our fertilizer stock position in The Ferris Report.
A prolonged war could push these stocks even higher as global fertilizer prices adjust to a diminishing global supply. So there’s opportunity for traders to profit here.
Then there’s oil and gas…
Even without the war, we’re facing a longer-term global supply shortage of oil and gas. That’s what most concerns folks in the industry. As a respondent to a Dallas Fed energy industry survey commented:
The U.S. isn’t running out of oil, but she sure is running out of $60 per barrel oil. $100 per barrel? $150 per barrel? Price likely must cover for less-than-optimal geology over time.
“Less-than-optimal geology” means the world’s easier-to-extract oil resources are in decline. That will likely result in higher prices.
You see, since 2019, most of the investment in oil and gas production – nearly 90% of it – hasn’t gone into growing global oil production. It has simply gone into offsetting production declines. The International Energy Agency (“IEA”) describes the situation this way: “The global oil and gas industry needs to run fast to stand still.”
In a September 2025 report, the IEA covered many aspects of falling oil and gas supply. From the report:
Filling the remaining supply gap to maintain today’s production through to 2050 would require annual discoveries of 10 billion barrels of oil and around 1,000 [billion cubic meters] of natural gas. These amounts are just above what has been discovered annually in recent years.
In other words, we need more oil and gas than what has been discovered in the past several years. Neil Atkinson of the National Center for Energy Analytics wrote of the IEA’s findings:
The report indicates that upstream investment in oil and gas has fallen sharply in recent years and warns that sustaining production will require hundreds of billions of dollars in annual investment.
The IEA report also noted that production from U.S. shale wells declines faster than production from conventional oil and gas wells. In short, the global energy industry needs to find large new sources of conventional production.
A decline in lower-cost resources plus falling investment is a recipe for a supply crunch…
So far, I’ve been talking about the upstream portion of the industry, where new oil wells are discovered, developed, and put into production. But that isn’t the only area facing a massive supply shortfall. In the U.S., we’re also running into a shortage of refining capacity.
America’s supply of refined products like diesel fuel is contracting just as 5,400 data centers are creating a robust new source of demand – 95% of these centers use diesel backup generators.
And diesel fuel can’t just sit there. It goes bad like milk. It must be replaced every six to 12 months. Not only that, but the generators must be run once a month, or they’ll get clogged and won’t start up when the power grid fails.
As I told Ferris Report subscribers in December:
Just as the proliferation of data centers introduces a brand-new, price-inelastic source of demand for diesel, supply of the fuel has started to dwindle…
Global chemical giant LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) permanently shut down its 268,000-barrel-per-day Houston refinery in the first quarter of [2025]. It was Houston’s oldest refinery, originally built in 1918…
Phillips 66 (PSX) has closed its 139,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Wilmington, California (near Los Angeles)…
And California is expected to lose more refining capacity due to burdensome regulations…
Refinery giant Valero Energy said [last] April that it will close its 170,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Benicia, California (near San Francisco) by April 2026. The company attributed the decision to “years of regulatory pressure, significant fines for air quality violations, and a recent lawsuit settlement related to environmental concern.”
In the coming years, expect more permanent oil refinery capacity destruction in California, as the state government seems to be trying to make it impossible to turn a profit by refining and selling gasoline.
The two stocks I recommended to take advantage of what’s happening in the onshore-refining industry are both up around 40% in less than three months.
When Valero closes its Benicia refinery next month, it will reduce California’s refining capacity by 9%. Less production of such a critical resource will lead to higher margins for existing refineries. That will send those two stocks even higher. I expect them to double or triple over the next couple of years.
You probably don’t think about refining capacity very often…
But it’s one of the most critical pieces of infrastructure in the modern world.
You can’t run your car – or much else – on crude oil. Our transportation, construction, agriculture, and mining industries – plus our military – all run primarily on diesel fuel. Diesel moves goods and powers big pieces of equipment. So without refining capacity, the economy dies.
So, as I said last week, energy demand isn’t the thing you need to worry about. It’s supply. Our demand for things like oil, gas, and diesel fuel isn’t going away anytime soon, no matter what you’ve heard some politician or environmentalist say.
The combination of underinvestment in oil and gas, declining well production, and shrinking refining capacity could become a major societal issue.
A shrinking supply of something that’s perpetually in high demand will lead to higher prices. We’re seeing that today, with the Iran war set to shrink the global oil supply. Oil was below $60 per barrel in mid-December. It hit $120 briefly after the war began and is now in the high-$90s.
If oil hits $100 and stays there long enough, it’ll start to create a real energy price shock in the global economy. If oil goes to $120 and stays there long enough, a recession becomes more likely.
And while nobody knows the future, the war has the potential to drag on.
Iran and its allies can do a lot of damage to the oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region with relatively inexpensive weapons. You could probably shut down a refinery with a couple of well-placed hand grenades or other small explosive devices. You could also do major damage to an oil tanker.
In a Truth Social post on March 3, President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to begin providing political risk insurance and guarantees for all maritime shipping through the Persian Gulf. He also said the U.S. would begin escorting tankers soon.
But that’s doubtful. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said yesterday in a CNBC interview that Navy escorts “can’t happen now.” He continued:
We’re simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities.
It reminds me of a moment in one of the older “Star Trek” films when Spock, feeling pressured to produce results during an impending crisis, uncharacteristically tells Kirk, “One damn minute, Admiral.”
Retired French Navy Vice Admiral Pascal Ausseur told the Associated Press more bluntly that “sending warships or civilian vessels into the Strait of Hormuz would be suicidal.”
Even if the Iran war ends soon and tankers are once again free to sail the strait, the long-term supply picture still stands.
Investors have been buying the S&P 500 and their favorite mega-cap tech stocks on dips for years now. That strategy, which I outlined in a recent essay, had worked gangbusters until very recently. Now, the mega caps are underperforming. And last year’s losers – energy stocks – are rising.
In sum, no matter how long this war lasts, energy stocks are just getting started. So use any opportunities to buy these stocks on dips.
Recommended Links:
The Man Who Made $4.6 Million in 24 Hours Issues New Warning
Ken Fisher says it’s “too weird and mystical,” and NPR dubs it “voodoo science.” But Greg Diamond – who has identified 41 chances to double your money or better – says this obscure strategy is critical to making money from market volatility. As the U.S.-Iran conflict deepens, Greg can show you how to leverage this strategy in your trading account. Click here for more details.
Jeff Brown has personally witnessed at least five major tech disruptions. These disruptors soared 2,150% and even 7,500%. And his bearish calls fell 65%, 69%, 98%, and 99.5%. Now, Jeff believes Nvidia is about to trigger the biggest disruption yet – and he has come up with a unique way to prepare. Click here for more details.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/12/26): BAE Systems (BAESY), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BP (BP), CF Industries (CF), Simplify Managed Futures Strategy Fund (CTA), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Chevron (CVX), EOG Resources (EOG), Equinor (EQNR), EQT (EQT), K+S (KPLUY), Liberty Energy (LBRT), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI), Valero Energy (VLO), and State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).
A quiet mailbag today… As always, send your comments and questions to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
Good investing,
Dan Ferris
Medford, Oregon
March 13, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,349.9%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,297.1%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08798.9%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09782.6%Retirement MillionaireSII
Sprott01/11/18735.2%Extreme ValueGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16648.6%Retirement MillionaireWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12638.6%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryCIEN
Ciena10/20/22606.8%Stansberry Innovations ReportALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09575.4%Extreme ValueHSY
Hershey12/07/07556.4%Stansberry’s Investment Advisory
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc3Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter1Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/181,777.0%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,723.3%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,010.4%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21643.1%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21598.7%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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