RJ Hamster
The Titanic Captain went Down with the Ship
| The Titanic Captain went Down with the ShipMichael Saylor was the poster child of laser-eyed conviction, the monk of the Bitcoin standard. Now, the same market that worshipped him wants his head mounted on a spike outside the Nasdaq.THE CRYPTO ALARMNOV 21 READ IN APP I won’t lie, if you haven’t looked at the market charts today, do yourself a favor and maybe don’t.That means the stock market, and the crypto market.None of it is pretty.It is never nice to see your portfolio bleeding red, but that’s the state of play right now. We do have to just take it in our stride and make rational, smart decisions.I still stand by the position that market rout is a self-fulfilling prophecy.That the market noise for an AI bubble has ripped the stock market lower, and the knock-on effect hits ‘risk assets,’ and now with institutional money so deeply invested in Bitcoin and crypto, it’s all now moving in lock-step.But a lot of the recent price action doesn’t make sense. There’s clearly a healthy dose of delirium in the market, and nothing captures it better than the fall from grace of Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, the original corporate Bitcoin maxi.Only a few months ago, Michael Saylor was the poster child of laser-eyed conviction, the monk of the Bitcoin standard. He was the man who could post a meme on X.com and move billions.Now, the same market that worshipped him wants his head mounted on a spike outside the Nasdaq.And when the market is utterly irrational like this, I think to myself…Is Now the Moment to Buy Strategy?Just rationally look at the situation here…Strategy holds 649,870 Bitcoin[1].At $85,000 BTC, that’s $55.2 billion worth of Bitcoin.Yet Strategy’s entire market cap… is $50 billion (and falling).An out-and-out Bitcoin company is now trading below the value of the Bitcoin it already owns. And none of this factors in the other ‘Bitcoin financialization’ tools that the company is operating.I mean, you don’t need fancy modelling here, you can see that the stock trades under its net primary asset.The last time Strategy’s stock traded at these levels, Bitcoin was around $60,000.In other words, either MSTR is grossly oversold… or the market is saying Bitcoin itself has a very long way to fall even after this current 32% pullback.And also, the crowd that once begged Saylor to ‘buy the dip’ is now furious when he posts memes. He posted this just a couple of days ago…And X.com exploded as they wanted to know why he wasn’t going down with the ship. That the Titanic’s captain rode that sucker all the way to the bottom of the Atlantic.Yikes! Fickle bunch.Even if Bitcoin falls another 30% all the way to $60,000, Strategy would still be sitting on $39 billion in Bitcoin.Yes, that’s still smaller than today’s market cap, but only another 22%. So even under extreme downside assumptions, Strategy still looks mispriced.Two Things Come to MindFrankly, none of this makes sense.But markets, particularly crypto-related markets, during complete panic often don’t make sense.And that’s exactly why these moments become generational opportunities for the long-term investor.When you see an out-and-out Bitcoin company like Strategy get smashed harder than Bitcoin itself… when you watch the market price its assets below the spot value of the hardest money on earth… when you remember where this entire asset is ultimately heading…Two things come to my mind.1. Bitcoin looks cheap.2. Strategy looks even cheaper.If you believe (as I do) that Bitcoin is on the long-term trajectory toward $1 million… this dislocation won’t last.The simple math will pull Strategy’s valuation back into alignment, and likely with a premium, not a discount.And once again, Saylor will be the Bitcoin god and back on that maxi-pedestal.I’m not trying to convince you this is the bottom, and that we turn the corner from here.Clearly, my view that we’ll never see five-figure Bitcoin again was wrong. But in over a decade in this market, it’s better to be wrong short-term than wrong long.And I’ve never been wrong long.I don’t expect that to start now.When the market is throwing the lifeboats overboard and screaming ‘JUMP SHIP’ while the ship is perfectly sound, that’s when you probably want to take a beat to just reconsider any rash decisions.Consider the facts, and if, like me, you think that Bitcoin and Strategy look pretty cheap right now.Trust in crypto, Adam AtlanticSource:[1] https://x.com/saylor/status/1990411134009061658The Crypto Alarm is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell The Crypto Alarm that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won’t be charged unless they enable payments.Pledge your support LIKECOMMENTRESTACK © 2025 The Crypto Alarm 6815 Biscayne Blvd Ste 103, Miami, FL 33138 USA Unsubscribe |
