RJ Hamster
The Problem with Everyone Being ‘All-In’
 Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 More thoughts on the demand for skilled labor… Your feedback… Why ‘bad news’ may be bad for stocks again… Everyone is all-in – and that’s the problem… Prepare for volatility in 2026… Your feedback on the need for ‘skilled labor’ continues to roll in…Our mailbag is overflowing with thoughts about what we’ve written about over the past two days – the demand for skilled physical labor in America, like plumbers, welders, and electricians.On Monday, we also shared our Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig’s recommendation in Retirement Millionaire to buy shares of a business that “employs thousands of the very specialists everyone else is desperate to hire.” Yesterday, we shared reader feedback on the subject.We’ll share more of your thoughts on this topic in our regular mailbag at the bottom of today’s Digest, but I (Corey McLaughlin) want to kick things off with just a few of the notes we’ve received since yesterday that stood out. First, here’s subscriber Ron D…My grandson, a 17-year-old senior with very little interest in high school academics, is now participating in a vocational welding program. He is presently at the top of his class and has fabricated Christmas gifts to boast his accomplishment.At 79 years young with absolutely no interest to retire, raised in a blue-collar family fabrication business, [a] successfully accomplished engineering career and currently developing a unique mechanical product permits me to accomplish my legacy…Politics of the world seems to have it backwards.And this one from subscriber O.W. made me chuckle…I have a BA in accounting [and] worked for 40 years as a CFP/investment broker and owner of a specialized insurance brokerage. I am now retired on a farm, and let me tell you how almost impossible it is to find a GOOD machine mechanic and other types of trade. All the while, [I] put up with the college-educated idiots that don’t even know how to reconcile their checkbook. We need to look at the education system in Germany/Austria (where I have visited) to see how to get skilled people. My cows are talking about creating software that tracks their feeding, maybe college will help!I’d like to meet these cows… And on a related point, I consider myself fortunate that a college kid – a son of my wife’s coworker who enjoys working on old tractors – helped me get a malfunctioning lawn mower engine started this past weekend. I paid him, of course.On the other hand, subscriber Chris V. wrote in with confirmation that the job market for recent college graduates “stinks”…The job market for graduates is terrible. My son graduated magna cum laude from business school with a business finance degree… He writes and back tests and constantly improves his own trading algorithms. He’s responsible, polite, was a camp counselor when he was 16. He’s sent his resume to hundreds of places for employment and internships, yet still unemployed… So, yea, it stinks.I’ve been involved in construction for about 30 years. “Skilled” is an interesting term. The lack of skilled labor is a big problem. People tend to go into construction because of little education or lack of higher education. Twenty years ago, you could check in on a job in the morning, make sure that a plan was in place for the day. Today you almost can’t leave because you can’t trust the quality of a lot of trades. It’s not getting better…And subscriber Kelly F. wrote in with a potential consequence about the situation to think about…The U.S. now has a severe overabundance of small, private, four-year liberal arts colleges. Due to the limited [return on investment] for obtaining such a degree absent further professional education, I believe the next 10 years will see a large percentage of them close or be merged into public university systems as specialized campuses. Others will convert to providing technical education.The law of supply and demand has not been repealed. Private colleges, at least those of the non-Ivy League variety, will be forced to trim their ancillary staff and reduce their tuition to attract enough students to continue. I believe very few of them have large enough endowments to survive more than a few years under the enrollment stress they are beginning to feel.We’ve got more of your notes in our mailbag below. Keep ’em coming to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.Moving on to today’s market…One day doesn’t make a trend, but we’re seeing signs that bad news in the economy may be “bad news” for stocks again. If that’s the case, it’s a notable sentiment shift…You see, for most of 2025 (and much of the past few years), investors have reacted bullishly to economic weakness in part because of the idea that it would lead to lower interest rates.Since August, the Federal Reserve has lowered its federal-funds rate by 75 basis points… and the central bank has lowered it by 175 basis points since August 2024.So short-term rates have gone from a “restrictive” level designed to fight inflation to something closer to “neutral,” making costs of borrowing lower for banks and, conceptually at least, others throughout the economy.Putting the post-Liberation Day market panic aside for a moment, the stock market has been in a strong bull run during this time. In short, bad news for the economy was often “good news” for stocks.However, a lot of people might forget that the current bull market run began in late 2022 – when the pace of inflation finally started to consistently cool from its pandemic-era 40-year high and the market began to think about the idea of lower rates again.Now, the status quo may be changing…As we reported yesterday, the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.6%. That’s a four-year high… and the highest level since February 2017 if you exclude the COVID-19 unemployment spike.In the past, further economic weakness may have led to higher market expectations for rate cuts and – perversely – boosted stocks. But yesterday, fed-funds futures traders’ odds of another cut coming in early 2026 didn’t budge from around 25%.Meanwhile, the major U.S. stock indexes traded slightly lower. This could be an early sign that bad news really is “bad news” as we head into 2026.Of course, there’s always the chance the Fed will signal more rate cuts to come in early 2026, or perhaps whomever President Donald Trump installs as the next Fed chair in May will indeed lower rates further.But as we explained earlier this week, it looks like the bond market is signaling some concern about inflation rebounding in a lower-rate environment.Our colleague Mike Barrett wrote about the risks of persistent inflation, along with a weakening labor market, in his weekly Select Value Opportunitiesupdate today… and shared why the “real” three-month Treasury yield moving lower and gold moving higher are important signals.This backdrop could set up a volatile 2026 – especially with the prospect of high(er) inflation and more labor market bad news.Meanwhile, investors are ‘all-in’ on today’s market…Every so often, we like to check in on investor positioning to get a gauge of sentiment in the market. We typically look at these indicators from a contrarian perspective… meaning when most investors and traders are overly bullish, it might be time to get cautious, and vice versa.As the Stansberry’s Investment Advisory team describes it…There’s a saying on Wall Street that’s wise to remember: When the ducks are quacking, feed them. In short, when the public is buying huge amounts of shares, it’s time for smart investors to sell.Right now, we’re hearing some ducks.Bank of America’s latest weekly Global Fund Manager Survey shows that cash levels among professional money managers have fallen from 3.7% to 3.3% of total assets, so they have relatively little “dry powder” sitting on the sidelines.That means there’s less new money that can pour into the market and push stock prices higher. Bank of America considers a cash level of 4% (or lower) to be a warning sign for a coming market correction.Not only are we below this level today, but we’re seeing the lowest cash allocation in the history of the survey.The story is the same with retail investors…Every month, the American Association of Individual Investors (“AAII”) releases its allocation report. At the end of November, retail investor allocation to stocks hit 71.2%.That marked the 66th straight month that retail investors’ allocation to stocks has been above the long-term average of 61.5%. And it’s right around the peak level we tend to see before folks start trimming their exposure to stocks (as Barchart highlighted in a post on X).So while sentiment indicators like the AAII’s weekly sentiment survey have shown that investors have been worried about the market throughout the year, what they’re doing with their money tells us something completely different.Both professional and retail investors have been putting their money into stocks at extremely high levels. That raises concerns about whether this market can keep churning higher in the near term.Of course, we don’t recommend selling all your stocks and holding cash just because folks are all-in on the market. As our colleague and True Wealth editor Brett Eversole explained in the October 23 DailyWealth…It’s never wise to fight a bull market. When prices are rising, that tends to continue.But don’t be caught off guard by a potentially rocky market road in 2026…The time to prepare is now. That’s what folks like Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond and Marc Chaikin, founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, are doing.As we’ve written before, Marc says 2026 could be the “year of the bear,” and yesterday he went into great detail to explain why in a new free event called Tipping Point 2026.Marc kicked things off by revealing his major market prediction for next year. He also answered what is perhaps the No. 1 question on everyone’s mind: “Should I sell all of my stocks before January 1?”Then, Marc was joined by a special guest to discuss how to time the arrival of the next great bear market – a method that sounded the alarm on the overall market in February 2020, just before stocks fell 25% in the COVID-19 pandemic panic. They also talked about an urgent warning from a 100-year-old indicator.Before closing things out, they shared two free recommendations – one stock to buy before New Year’s Day and the No. 1 stock you should sell. You can hear all the details by watching a replay of the event right here.Recommended Links:Here’s What You Missed Yesterday (See Immediately)Two legendary quant investors just debuted a never-before-seen software collaboration that could help you SELL any stock before it crashes 20% or more in the short term. This same software detected upcoming flash crashes in MSTR, BBWI, TTD, and more before they each dropped 20% or more during last month’s sell-off. Stream the full replay here.Trump’s Next Real Estate Deal Could Pay YOUPresident Donald Trump’s real estate deals have returned as much as 4,800%. That’s enough to turn every $1,000 into $49,000. But his next “real estate deal” is different – and much bigger. It involves federal assets worth an estimated $5.1 trillion. And any American citizen can stake their claim. The mainstream media is largely ignoring this, but a former Trump adviser just went on the record. Get the full details here.New 52-week highs (as of 12/16/25): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund (EMD), RenaissanceRe (RNR), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), Roku (ROKU), Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW), Sprott (SII), and TKO Group (TKO).As mentioned, in today’s mailbag, we have plenty more of your thoughts about skilled labor in America, which we covered Monday and yesterday… Keep your notes coming to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.“We have just been on holiday to Mauritius, the small island state in the Indian ocean. I always chat to locals. I asked what skills the island needs. The answer was plumbers and electricians. I could see construction projects here and there.”I casually asked about lawyers as I am one. ‘No, got too many,’ was the answer (obviously). I also asked about doctors. Same answer. Interesting dynamic that also seems reflected in the U.S.” – Subscriber Simon K.“As a response to Tim L.’s suggestion of ‘forgive student loans for college… and reward them with a new student loan for a trade school.'”I say avoid the first step by incentivizing the second step immediately, like the heavy metal band Metallica’s foundation, All Within My Hands (“AWMH”)… It provides grants and support to community and technical colleges for workforce education in high-demand trades.” – Subscriber Jay W. “I have twins in college at CU both majoring in STEM fields, and they were fortunate enough to get full ride scholarships due to me being a Purple Heart veteran. Without that opportunity, I would have pushed them to pursue a skilled labor career. I’ve been a huge fan of Mike Rowe (legendary TV host and the list goes on) for over [a] decade because of his foundation Mike Rowe Works. His cause is directly addressing the skilled shortage in the U.S. and has awarded millions of dollars in grants to recipients to pursue a field in the trades. And he’s a Baltimore native, so you know he’s legit :)” – Subscriber Dan C.Corey McLaughlin comment: Dan, thanks for the note and for your service. I respect and am familiar with Mike Rowe’s work, too, having watched Dirty Jobs and his initiatives to get people into the trades over the years as well.As you said, Rowe is also from Baltimore (where we’re headquartered), and he is very much from the “blue-collar” part of town. He attended a community college here before going to Towson University, which set him on his path in entertainment.“Going to trade school is such a great thing. Learning a trade opens the door for a future of owning your own business. Plus, chances are good that being an electrician, welder, plumber, etc., you can get a job anywhere in the world if you do so desire. I went to nursing school and have worked in various countries and enjoyed learning about other cultures. What an experience!” – Subscriber Gary A.All the best,Corey McLaughlin and Nick KoziolBaltimore, Maryland December 17, 2025Stansberry Research Top 10 Open RecommendationsTop 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationAnalystMSFT Microsoft02/10/121,536.3%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterMSFT Microsoft11/11/101,487.9%Retirement MillionaireDocADP Automatic Data Processing10/09/08978.1%Extreme ValueFerrisBRK.B Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09789.7%Retirement MillionaireDocGOOGL Alphabet12/15/16655.5%Retirement MillionaireDocWRB W.R. Berkley03/15/12635.6%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterAXP American Express08/04/16524.1%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterAFG American Financial10/11/12502.8%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterALS-T Altius Minerals03/26/09501.3%Extreme ValueFerrisHSY Hershey12/07/07485.4%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterPlease note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.Top 10 Totals5Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter3Retirement MillionaireDoc2Extreme ValueFerrisTop 5 Crypto Capital Open RecommendationsTop 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationAnalystWSTETH/USD Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/182,278.2%Crypto CapitalWadeBTC/USD Bitcoin11/27/182,236.7%Crypto CapitalWadeONE/USD Harmony12/16/191,025.2%Crypto CapitalWadeQRL/USD Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21671.3%Crypto CapitalWadePOL/USD Polygon02/26/21647.2%Crypto CapitalWadePlease note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.Stansberry Research Hall of FameTop 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationAnalystNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.LashmetMicrosoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireDocInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.LashmetRocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.LashmetSeabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.SjuggerudBerkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireDocIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRootRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomeWilliamsPNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsSjuggerudMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.Lashmet^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of FameTop 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainPublicationAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalWadeTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalWadePolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalWadeFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalWadeBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto CapitalWadeYou have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest click here.Published by Stansberry Research.You’re receiving this e-mail at pahovis@aol.com. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice.© 2025 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or stansberryresearch.com.Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. |
