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Exclusive Story

Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. Target

Authored by Nathan Reiff. Publication Date: 11/17/2025. 

At a Glance

• U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
• Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
• Walmart’s omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon’s unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.

As Black Friday’s reach extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, in some cases, the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded accordingly.

The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will see more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time — up between 3.7% and 4.2% from 2024. Despite headwinds from softer consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday-season sales.

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Three core retailers positioned to benefit from increased post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How might these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top?

Amazon: The Online Juggernaut

In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed leader in online retail.

Although the e-commerce giant has expanded its digital footprint into cloud services, advertising and other businesses, its retail operations remain substantial. The company’s Black Friday deals last for nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and span all categories — with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers during the period.

In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also boasts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a distinction it has held for nearly a decade. Amazon’s vast selection and ability to undercut competitors on price are driven largely by its logistics advantages.

The firm is even preparing to utilize its vast distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few areas where brick-and-mortar stores have retained an edge.

Walmart: The Omnichannel King

Once a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel strategy that combines in-store and online experiences.

This approach has supported strong results in the U.S. and abroad, driving some of its best recent earnings reports.

Walmart has also attracted some third-party sellers away from Amazon, making its marketplace an important contributor to e-commerce growth.

Its extensive fulfillment network helps the company price competitively and manage inventory across channels, and Walmart benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases among major retailers.

Target: The Challenger

Target is a household name but smaller than Amazon and Walmart, so it has carved out a niche to stay competitive during Black Friday.

The company emphasizes curation — maintaining a narrower third-party marketplace and offering a more selective assortment of brands than many rivals.

That strategy has helped Target build a reputation for good value on quality items across categories. Its store pickup program, where customers order online and collect in store, grew popular during the pandemic and remains widely used.

Target has faced challenges in recent quarters, including a widely publicized boycott after changes to its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be a chance for the company to rebound or risk falling further behind competitors.

Key Metrics Comparison

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT.

Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon is forecasting fourth-quarter revenuebetween $206 billion and $213 billion; the other two companies had not issued public holiday revenue ranges at the time of writing. Amazon’s online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing about 63% of total sales for the period.

Walmart’s latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue for the year.

Target doesn’t provide the same level of online-sales detail, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth.

So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025?

With its omnichannel strategy, large and loyal customer base, and competitive pricing, Walmart appears poised to dominate the Black Friday retail race this year.

Investors looking to play that strength might consider positioning ahead of Walmart’s earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect the Black Friday sales period.

That said, in the broader retail landscape Amazon could emerge as the overall leader. It can compete across a far wider range of products, often at lower prices, and benefits from the tailwinds of AWS and its advertising and cloud businesses.

Additionally, while Black Friday is most prominent in the United States, the wider holiday season matters globally — and Amazon’s massive international footprint gives it an added advantage.

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