The market said ‘I suck’ twice in a row

Don Kaufman here.

I’m writing to you from the Virgin Islands.

Nevertheless, I’m looking at some seriously unruly stuff in the markets right now. And I’m gonna tell you right now – this isn’t about being bearish or bullish.

This is about recognizing when the entire pricing mechanism is completely broken.

Here’s What’s Got My Attention

SPX just breached expected move two consecutive weeks. You know what that means?

The market said “I suck” twice in a row. Billions and billions of dollars getting it wrong, week after week.

Now look, in any given week, breaching the expected move doesn’t mean that much.

Markets rip through upper or lower edges all the time.

But when you start seeing consecutive breaches – whether upside or downside, it implies that markets are simply getting it wrong.

They’re not doing a good job of handicapping forward risk.

The fact of the matter is, you’re seeing some unruly nature of the marketplace that’s very likely to continue.

I’ve got data going back to 2017, and here’s the thing – breaches lead to more breaches. They get packed together.

Look at 2022. Nevertheless, we just kept going and going. Breach, breach, breach, breach. Four consecutive times.

The Multi-Market Breakdown I’m Building

Now here’s where it gets interesting, okay?

I’m seeing this breakdown across multiple markets simultaneously. Financials breaching expected move. SPX breaching.

Even Tesla sitting with 65-70% implied vol while the stock’s getting crushed – that’s dangerous as hell for a trillion-dollar company.

But here’s my crazy thinking, and this is where the pieces start connecting.

The bonds are gonna sell off. The big beautiful bill is out there, and that spending money will eventually work its way into the system. But in the near term? Bond vigilantes have got to show up at some point.

What that basically implies is there’s gonna be some sell side activity in the bond market.

Maybe overwhelm it a little bit. I would not be surprised to see this trade 110, 111. And I’m telling you, I am gonna trade the crap outta that one.

Nevertheless, if the bonds continue to sell off at all, the implications back to the financials is it’s a lot of stress in the system.

Regional banks are gonna get smoked.

What This Week’s Telling Us

SPX has $93 expected move on five trading days.

You realize that’s the market saying it has no freaking clue what’s coming next?

This can go on for huge amounts of time, okay?

Look at 2022 – markets just completely and utterly ripped themselves apart. You go through these periods of incredible efficiency where markets do what they’re told to do, and then they go through these periods where they just lose their minds.

The Real Pattern Here

Here’s what most people don’t get – this isn’t random chaos. When you see consecutive breaches across multiple markets, when you see Tesla trading at 3-4 times normal volatility, when you see bonds showing stress signals – that’s not coincidence.

That’s systematic breakdown.

Markets can’t get it right across timeframes, across asset classes, across volatility regimes. How can you get it right? That’s not the way I look at it.

I look at it as recognizing when the entire system is showing you it’s unreliable. Use that. Position for the unruly nature to continue.

What’s Coming Next

We’re at the beginning of something here, okay? Two consecutive breaches in SPX. Financials ripping without pullbacks. Bond market showing stress.

This doesn’t necessarily mean we have to go higher or lower – it means we’re entering a period where the normal rules don’t apply. Where pricing mechanisms fail consistently.

Nevertheless, when you see this type of systematic breakdown, you don’t fight it. You position for continued volatility, not direction.

Because while everyone’s trying to pick direction in this chaos, the real trade is recognizing when entire markets are telling you they’re broken.

It is what it is.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

ONE STOCK. ONE SYSTEM. ONE SHOT AT TRADING FREEDOM.

Stop watching 50+ tickers. Stop the analysis paralysis keeping you broke.

Don Kaufman & Garrett Baldwin reveal why smart professionals focus on ONE powerhouse stock.

Watch Right Now

Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here

© 2025 Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA|SIPC|NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment.Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

PO Box 24790
Christiansted, Virgin Islands 00824, Virgin Islands, U.S.

Raiders Receive TROUBLING Prediction

♟ A Tariff Deadline Buy

RJ Hamster

The market said ‘I suck’ twice in a row

The market said ‘I suck’ twice in a row

Here’s What’s Got My Attention

The Real Pattern Here

What’s Coming Next

ONE STOCK. ONE SYSTEM. ONE SHOT AT TRADING FREEDOM.

Share this:

Like this:

Related articles