RJ Hamster
The Great American Slowdown
 Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 More clues on the consumer… AI is holding up the economy… The energy secretary’s top concern… Another circular deal in the AI money loop… A new Hall-of-Fame pick… More bad news from retail earnings…Yesterday, we highlighted a red flag from the “real economy.”Home-improvement giant Home Depot (HD) – a bellwether for the U.S. economy – blamed a weaker consumer for its poor quarterly sales and earnings outlook.Today, the hits kept coming. This time, it was big-box retailer Target (TGT) making headlines…Like Home Depot, Target reported a mixed third quarter, with revenue falling short but earnings beating Wall Street’s expectations. That was about where the good news ended.Target’s sales fell on a year-over-year basis for the fourth straight quarter (and seventh out of the last 10 quarters). The company reported that both the number of transactions (foot traffic) and the average transaction amount declined. That was even with the company lowering prices to try to drum up sales.Target reported a slight decline in its margins, “reflecting merchandising pressure from increased markdowns.”Target doesn’t expect that to change anytime soon… The company forecasts a small decline in sales in its fourth quarter. That’s incredibly telling since the fourth quarter includes the holiday shopping season.According to CNBC, Target’s CEO declined to put a timeline on when he thought the company would see positive sales growth again.It’s like what Home Depot’s Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said yesterday: “It’s hard to identify near-term catalysts that would lead to acceleration” in sales. Put another way, folks are shopping less. And when they do shop, they’re spending less than they were at this time last year.Tomorrow morning, we’ll get one last read on the consumer when Walmart (WMT) releases its quarterly report. If it’s anything like Target’s and Home Depot’s, it’ll show more evidence of folks pulling back on spending and looking for deals – if not avoiding shopping altogether.That’s not what we traditionally see during strong economies.That leaves artificial-intelligence (“AI”) spending to pick up the economic slack…AI infrastructure spending contributed to 1.1% of gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth in the first half of the year, according to a report from JPMorgan Chase. Without this spending, GDP would have declined by much more than 0.6% during the first quarter.But all of this AI infrastructure – like data centers – needs plenty of electricity. That’s why Big Tech is securing power supplies directly from utility companies.And it’s why Constellation Energy (CEG) plans to spend $1.6 billion to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. When it closed in 2019, the plant had the capacity to power more than 800,000 homes, according to CNBC. But when it reopens, the plant (now called the Crane Clean Energy Center) won’t be powering homes…Constellation is selling the power to Microsoft (MSFT) in a 20-year agreement. The software company will use that power for its data centers.Still, heavy investment in AI and data centers is going to use up a lot more power in the coming years…As we wrote in the September 3 Digest, electricity prices have become the energy secretary’s top concern. There’s only so much grid capacity to go around.The government has a solution…The Department of Energy is loaning Constellation $1 billion to help reopen the Crane Clean Energy Center. In a call with reporters, Greg Beard, senior advisor to the Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office, said the loan would protect electricity prices for everyday consumers.It makes sense…If Constellation doesn’t have to foot the full bill for restarting the plant, it doesn’t have to pass those costs on to consumers to recoup its investment.But the Crane Clean Energy Center won’t be operational for another two years. And AI investment continues to pick up.More from the September 3 Digest…[I]ncreasing power capacity will take longer. It means building new plants, new transmission lines, and even new nuclear reactors. So supply may not keep up with demand just yet.That would likely mean the upward trend in electricity continues – and more sleepless nights for the energy secretary… and perhaps for people struggling to pay their electric bills.Still, the Constellation loan is a good start to help ease the strain on the energy grid and increase power supply. And the government could extend this strategy to restart other nuclear facilities or look to other energy sources like natural gas.Another ‘circular’ AI investment…In other news, AI research startup Anthropic recently got a boost of new investments – $5 billion from Microsoft (MSFT) and $10 billion from Nvidia (NVDA). Altogether, the privately held Anthropic is now valued at $350 billion – which would make it the 24th-largest company in the S&P 500 Index if it were public.Like other partnerships and investments we’ve seen in the AI space recently, this one is circular. As part of the investment, Anthropic agreed to purchase $30 billion in cloud computing from Microsoft’s Azure business and 1 gigawatt of computing power using Nvidia’s AI chips.So for a $15 billion investment today, Anthropic pledged more than $30 billion in spending sometime in the future.That’s all well and good for now… Anthropic gets a cash infusion, and Nvidia and Microsoft get pledges for future orders that they can boast about in earnings reports and at investor conferences.But we’ll remind you of the warning from our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk in his October 3 This Week on Wall Street…And this circular nature of AI spending creates risks… It suggests that any crash will be swift and severe.Put simply, these deals work – until they don’t. Since every AI company is invested in – or has pledges from – one or more of its partners, all it takes is one failure to bring the entire circle down.In the meantime, tech companies and the U.S. government seem more than happy to invest in other tech and AI startups.Finally, today we have a new Hall of Famer to report…As eagle-eyed readers might have spotted yesterday, there is a new name in the Stansberry Research Hall of Fame, which we publish at the bottom of our daily e-mail. It represents the highest-returning closed positions in Stansberry Research history.The newest name is from Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet – a 1,034% gain in a partial position of Rocket Lab (RKLB) in about two years and five months.Dave recommended the stock back in June 2023 because of its Electron rocket, a small and reusable design that makes it cheaper for companies to get their gear into space.At the time, Rocket Lab had been winning a bevy of contracts and had a $500 million order backlog for the Electron, and Dave highlighted that the U.S. Space Force and Navy could become long-term buyers.In short, Dave said the company fit the 10-to-1 risk-reward profile he looks for in Venture Technology recommendations.In his model portfolio, Dave sold half of a position in Rocket Lab in October 2024 for a 101% gain.But last month, he wrote to subscribers that the model portfolio was up 1,000% in the remaining half position, so it was time to sell half of that position to lock in more gains…It was a matter of risk management, Dave told subscribers…Now, we think there are more gains ahead.For starters, there have been very public fights between Elon Musk, who owns rival SpaceX, and decision-makers in the government and commercial sectors. That could drive companies looking for stability to Rocket Lab.Plus, Rocket Lab is working on a medium-lift reusable rocket called Neutron. If successful, it would be a major competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9. However, there’s a chance that Neutron won’t succeed on its first attempt… second attempt… or third attempt. That’s when the stock would start to get beaten down.SpaceX’s Starship exploded multiple times this year. And Firefly Aerospace’s rocket exploded during preflight tests.If something similar happens during the initial Neutron flight, Rocket Lab’s stock would tumble in the near term. So we’re going to take some of our winnings off the table and keep a quarter position in the model portfolio.This sell advice was a prudent call. Rocket Lab shares are down more than 30% since Dave told subscribers to take profits, and last week, the company pushed back its latest Neutron test flight to the first quarter of 2026.Congrats to Dave and the subscribers who followed his advice on this great call.Recommended Links:Here’s What You Missed Last NightThe White House’s “buy list” is moving markets. One stock jumped 90% overnight. Another surged 200% within 24 hours. Now, with more federal money on the way – and Wall Street getting in on this era-defining trade – the next round of targets could skyrocket even higher. Get the full story now before Washington moves again.Until Friday: Get Marc Chaikin’s Highest-Rated Stock PickMarc Chaikin just released what could be his biggest opportunity of 2025. One stock is flashing VERY BULLISH in his Power Gauge system – the highest possible rating. The “smart money” is piling in… it’s crushing the S&P 500 Index… and Marc believes it could double in the coming months. Your chance to get access to this stock recommendation at 70% off ends Friday at midnight. Click here before then to avoid missing out.New 52-week highs (as of 11/18/25): Amgen (AMGN), Barrick Mining (B), ProShares Ultra Nasdaq Biotechnology (BIB), Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE), Freehold Royalties (FRU.TO), Gilead Sciences (GILD), iShares Biotechnology Fund (IBB), Medtronic (MDT), Monster Beverage (MNST), Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), Roche (RHHBY), and Valero Energy (VLO).In today’s mailbag, we received several notes from people who weren’t able to watch “The Stocks That Save America Summit,” which was rescheduled from yesterday morning to last night. Good news for anyone interested: You can watch a replay of the event here at your convenience… and we suggest you do.Expert natural resources investor Rick Rule and a special guest discuss what they say could be the biggest story in the market in the coming decade. It’s why the U.S. government has been rushing to use taxpayer funds to buy stakes of publicly traded companies, sending their stocks surging – sometimes overnight.All the best,Nick Koziol and Corey McLaughlinBaltimore, Maryland November 19, 2025Stansberry Research Top 10 Open RecommendationsTop 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationAnalystMSFT Microsoft02/10/121,589.9%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterMSFT Microsoft11/11/101,518.8%Retirement MillionaireDocADP Automatic Data Processing10/09/08931.6%Extreme ValueFerrisBRK.B Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09793.7%Retirement MillionaireDocWRB W.R. Berkley03/15/12709.5%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterGOOGL Alphabet12/15/16600.3%Retirement MillionaireDocAFG American Financial10/11/12508.3%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterALS-T Altius Minerals03/26/09502.3%Extreme ValueFerrisHSY Hershey12/07/07472.5%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterAXP American Express08/04/16461.4%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorterPlease note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. Top 10 Totals5Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter3Retirement MillionaireDoc2Extreme ValueFerris Top 5 Crypto Capital Open RecommendationsTop 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationAnalystWSTETH/USD Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/182,371.2%Crypto CapitalWadeBTC/USD Bitcoin11/27/182,369.7%Crypto CapitalWadeONE/USD Harmony12/16/191,039.9%Crypto CapitalWadePOL/USD Polygon02/26/21656.9%Crypto CapitalWadeQRL/USD Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21415.7%Crypto CapitalWadePlease note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. Stansberry Research Hall of FameTop 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationAnalystNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.LashmetMicrosoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireDocInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.LashmetRocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.LashmetSeabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.SjuggerudBerkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireDocIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRootRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomeWilliamsPNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsSjuggerudMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.Lashmet^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of FameTop 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainPublicationAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalWadeTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalWadePolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalWadeFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalWadeBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto CapitalWade You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest click here.Published by Stansberry Research.You’re receiving this e-mail at peter.hovis@gmail.com. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice.© 2025 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or stansberryresearch.com.Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. |
