RJ Hamster
The Fireworks Factory Is Exploding
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
The fog of war descends… Five months, eight years, whatever… Bad for taxpayers, good for shareholders… Risk and return… The 14th-century echoes in Iran… Nobody knows how or when it ends… When to buy defense stocks…
When you start your car, fuel begins exploding beneath the hood…
Internal combustion is violent. But the process is controlled and predictable. And you can stop it whenever you like by turning your engine off.
Going to war also involves explosions. But it’s not like starting a car.
A country can control its own actions during the conflict, but once the explosions begin, it can’t control how the conflict evolves. Firing those first shots is more like tossing a match through the window of a fireworks factory.
It’s not controlled chaos. It’s pure chaos. And nobody can see what’s really going on. Hence the expression “the fog of war.”
The fog has descended onto Iran’s South Pars natural gas field…
Israel struck the facility this week in the war’s first direct targeting of fossil-fuel production. Iran retaliated hours later by hitting Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas terminal, one of the largest in the world.
On Truth Social, President Donald Trump posted:
Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack…
However, it’s widely reported that Trump knew of and “greenlit” the South Pars attack.
In the same Truth Social post, Trump said Israel wouldn’t attack South Pars again. Then he added that, if Iran executes another attack on “a very innocent [country], in this case Qatar,” that with or without Israel’s consent, the U.S. would “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field” using “strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”
Trump added that he didn’t want to use such destructive power but would not hesitate to do so.
Human nature being what it is, Iran would probably dig its heels in for an even longer haul and attack with new resolve. And U.S. allies in the region might strongly oppose such devastation for fear of Iran taking further revenge upon them.
Trump has suggested he can stop the war anytime he wants…
But to me (Dan Ferris), that’s pretty different from saying you’ll blow up whatever you need to blow up without hesitation. One is a comment about potential conflict duration, the other about the resolve to achieve the objectives.
To see how these two things are inextricably linked, look no further than Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz’s recent comment:
The operation will continue without any time limit, as long as required, until we accomplish all objectives and achieve victory in the campaign.
Katz wants everybody to know that Israel doesn’t care how long it takes. It’s fighting to destroy its enemy. It’s not watching the clock.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff is much more transparent than his boss. On Tuesday, when asked how long he thought the war would last, he said without hesitation, “I don’t know.” A politician on his game would never have said anything that honest. It was a deer-in-the-headlights moment. He might as well have told the press to please stop asking the question.
In other words, the factory is exploding, and the fire is burning…
And the folks who started it don’t care how long it’ll take to burn to the ground.
It’s easy to be reminded of then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s now-infamous comment in 2002, before the Iraq War began…
The Gulf War in the 1990s lasted five days on the ground. I can’t tell you if a – the use of force in Iraq today would last five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn’t going to last any longer than that.
Operation Iraqi Freedom began in March 2003. On May 1, President George W. Bush delivered his “Mission Accomplished” speech aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, declaring the “end of major combat operations.”
U.S. forces remained in Iraq until December 18, 2011.
Bush seems to have believed, as Trump does, that he could end the conflict anytime he wished. He either had no such ability or chose not to exercise it.
Barack Obama took over the White House on January 20, 2009, after campaigning on a promise to end the Iraq War. It took nearly three more years for the fireworks factory to finally stop exploding and burning.
With his rosy prediction about the Iraq War, Rumsfeld either had no idea what he was talking about, or he was telling folks what they wanted to hear. Both would be typical of politicians everywhere.
Whatever you feel about the war from a moral or practical standpoint, Iraq was painful for taxpayers. According to a 2020 study of the conflict, the U.S. spent roughly $2 trillion in Iraq… working out to $8,000 per American taxpayer. You know what they say, a trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.
What’s bad for taxpayers can be good for shareholders…
You just have to get in the way of the avalanche of money.
In the case of Iraq, owning defense stalwart Lockheed Martin (LMT) would have done the job nicely. If you’d bought it on the first day of the conflict and sold it on the last, you’d have made 59%, compared with a 39% gain for the S&P 500 Index.
You’ve likely heard the investing dictum to “buy when there’s blood in the streets.” Most folks cite it to support contrarian investing… being bold in times of chaos and fear to get stocks or other assets at a discount. But taken literally, the adage seems to suggest owning defense stocks in times of war.
I’m human. I don’t relish profiting from the murder, mayhem, and massive destruction of modern warfare. You might have some stocks you refuse to own on moral grounds.
I don’t have that luxury… My job requires me to accept such brutal realities. So in the next issue of The Ferris Report, I’ll have an angle on the drone warfare story that nobody is talking about right now and tell subscribers the best way to take advantage of it.
For investors, the question was never whether this war was containable. It was always what you do in your portfolio once the lit match goes through the factory window.
My subscribers were ready for this war…
I’ve been telling Ferris Report subscribers to buy energy stocks since December. Back then, there was no war. No Strait of Hormuz crisis. No overnight strikes on natural gas fields. Just a supply picture that told a clear story: the world was running out of cheap oil, refining capacity was shrinking, and demand wasn’t going anywhere but up.
Then February happened.
My four energy picks are all stalwarts – large-cap stocks with excellent, proven assets and long track records of success. Two of them are already up more than 40% in roughly three months. It’s not because I knew a war was coming. It’s because the underlying thesis was sound even before the war made it urgent.
Most investors think risk and reward move together: Take more risk, earn more return. My 23 years of editing Extreme Value have taught me the opposite. The way to earn higher returns is to mitigaterisk to the greatest extent possible. Buy strong businesses at the right price and let time do the work.
The Iran war guided me to my drone thesis. But it played no part in my original energy thesis. It’s merely accelerating it.
Two weeks ago, I called energy the trade of the year, maybe of the decade. Every day that passes, “year” looks more certain… and “decade” looks a lot less like hyperbole.
I’ll be seizing another opportunity, too…
I don’t recommend making portfolio decisions based on headlines. When something is in the news, the market has often already swarmed all over it. That’s more risk and less upside.
Still, my thesis in this month’s Ferris Report was born from the headlines. The latest news bulletins inspired some research into various weapons used throughout history. But unlike many traditional war-related investments, the upside isn’t already priced in.
I’m still working on this report, which will land in subscribers’ inboxes one week from today. But I can give you the gist of it.
Simply put, the war in Iran is clear proof that drone technology has come of age and is leveling the battlefield. It has turned an economically far weaker country like Iran into a serious threat to some very expensive pieces of the world’s greatest military power.
You may recall that, in early February, an F-35 fighter pilot shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching a U.S. aircraft carrier cruising 500 miles from the Iranian coast. The drone cost somewhere between $20,000 and $50,000 to produce. The aircraft carrier would cost $13 billion to replace.
Directly owning drone makers’ stocks isn’t a bad idea, but I believe I’ve found a better one, for which I’ll demonstrate ample historical precedent as far back as the 14th century.
Nobody knows how this ends…
Not Trump. Not Netanyahu. Not Iran. Not Steve Witkoff, who is supposed to be the man who negotiates the peace and who publicly admitted he doesn’t have any idea.
That’s the fireworks factory. Nobody lit the fuse expecting this. Nobody knows which rocket goes off next or where it lands. And nobody, including the people running this war or the analysts covering it, can see the exit.
What I can tell you is this: The fog of war is not an investing strategy. Panic-buying defense stocks after the first shots ring out is not an investing strategy.
Building a portfolio around structural supply shortages, shrinking refining capacity, and the permanent disruption of drone technology is an investing strategy.
The fireworks factory is burning. You want to own the right stocks before the smoke clears – not after.
Still, the market hasn’t figured out every way to play the war in Iran. The Ferris Report was ready for an energy shock. Now subscribers will get positioned for a protracted drone war.
My subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find more on my drone thesis – and the 14th-century precedent that explains exactly why I’m so confident in it – in next week’s Ferris Report. If you’re not already receiving The Ferris Report, click here to get access before our next issue.
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Volatility is spiking… Fear is rising… Hedge funds are on a selling spree… And tech is crumbling. But is this the start of the worst stock losses we’ve seen in years? Marc Chaikin has called almost every market twist and turn of the past few years, including the 2025 tariff sell-off and the 2020 and 2022 crashes. On March 25, he wants to show you exactly what’s coming – and the ONE move you must make to prepare. Learn more here.
Here’s What You Missed This Week
Futurist Eric Fry just went public with a full “Sell This, Buy That” road map – including seven companies to sell and 15 stocks that could soar – from our corporate affiliate InvestorPlace. Eric says this intelligence is critical for surviving and profiting from the “$10 Trillion Market Shock” set to begin in the weeks ahead, and you must move your money immediately. Watch Eric’s FutureProof 2026 briefing for full details.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/19/26): BP (BP), Ciena (CIEN), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Chevron (CVX), EOG Resources (EOG), Equinor (EQNR), EQT (EQT), Liberty Energy (LBRT), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Tenaris (TS), Valero Energy (VLO), and State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).
A quiet mailbag today… As always, send your comments and questions to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
Good investing,
Dan Ferris
Medford, Oregon
March 20, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,325.9%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,255.3%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08815.0%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09773.4%Retirement MillionaireCIEN
Ciena10/20/22699.4%Stansberry Innovations ReportGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16657.3%Retirement MillionaireSII
Sprott01/11/18636.2%Extreme ValueWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12615.3%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryHSY
Hershey12/07/07544.3%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09534.4%Extreme Value
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc3Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter1Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,763.3%Crypto CapitalBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/181,759.1%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,010.6%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21642.1%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21560.9%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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