RJ Hamster
The Fed’s Quiet Pivot and Nvidia’s Loud Warning
 Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 The latest from the Fed’s top ranks… The central bank opened the door to a cut… Was that a bell ringing at the AI top?… When investors sell good news, something is happening… The ‘event vs. process’ moment… A prescient pick… The Fed sent out the big ‘dove’…For about two weeks, the market had been increasingly pessimistic about the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at its December meeting.But the script has flipped.New York Fed President John Williams is considered the central bank’s No. 2 or No. 3 behind Fed Chair Jerome Powell. At times, he even serves as the chair’s de facto spokesperson. On Friday, Williams made a speech in Chile suggesting the Fed could indeed lower rates again next month.I (Corey McLaughlin) have been sharing all these twists and turns because the market cares so deeply about interest rates. As regular readers know well, a lower federal-funds rate can stimulate the economy by making it cheaper for businesses to borrow money… at the risk of higher inflation.In his remarks in Chile, Williams said he fully supported the previous two Federal Open Market Committee decisions to cut the fed-funds rate range by 25 basis points. And now, he said, he’s more concerned about a weakening labor market than about inflation (which higher rates can curb).In the next breath, Williams sounded like he was reading words written by Powell’s speechwriter…I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions. Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.We don’t know for sure the intent of Williams’ message. But Wall Street recognized the “dovish” tone and guidance as having Powell’s blessing.We’ve seen this dynamic play out with Williams’ speeches from time to time, but if you’re not a devoted Fed watcher, it’s easy to miss such a quiet pivot.Fed-funds futures traders have roughly doubled their odds of a rate cut early next month to around 80% since this time last week. And the major U.S. stock indexes’ recent slide from all-time highs has stopped… for now.For a second straight trading day, stocks were higher. Today, the benchmark S&P 500 Index gained 1.6%, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index was up almost 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index closed 2.7% higher.Looking at the signals…The CBOE Volatility Index has jumped to around 20, which is elevated but not extreme. High-yield credit spreads are higher than they’ve been most of the past several months but also remain relatively low.And some indicators point to a potential bottom of the recent “correction,” as Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond termed it today. Greg wrote in more detail to subscribers in his Weekly Market Outlook today.Still, I keep turning back to what my colleague Nick Koziol covered last week… That’s AI bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) posting another blockbuster quarter, only for its shares to fall roughly 8% intraday on Thursday.That could be a telling signal about the market overall, as Market Maven editor Gabe Marshank shares today…How to listen to Mr. Market…In more than 20 years working at hedge funds, I (Gabe Marshank) had the great fortune to learn at the feet of some of the best money managers in the world. But no lessons were more valuable than what I learned in my eight years working with the man I consider the greatest trader of all: Steve Cohen.While at SAC Capital (now Point72 Asset Management), I absorbed market wisdom that is, today, telling me we are at a huge and important inflection point for markets.Two of Steve’s phrases come to mind. I’m going to introduce them in turn and see how they pertain to today’s market…Market bottoms are an event, but market tops are a process.When the market bottoms, it’s due to a single event that we can usually name. For example, the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy during the global financial crisis, or the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.But when markets top out, it is a longer, drawn-out process.A market top needs to suck all the available capital into the dominant narrative at the time. That could be Japanese industrial supremacy in the 1980s, or the limitless prosperity of the Internet in 2000. It has to go through the process of getting everyone to believe in the bull case and everything that the bull case touches.That’s what has happened with artificial intelligence. The tech giants that are operating AI, like Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), have rallied to all-time highs. So has the company that’s the biggest beneficiary of their spending – Nvidia, now the largest stock in the market. And so have all the “bank shot” plays, like power and utility companies.At this point, is anyone still left to buy into the AI story? That brings us to the second quote…It’s not the news… It’s the reaction to the news.This is pure trader wisdom. It means the market can tell you what is already priced in by looking at how stocks react to news.So let’s look again at Nvidia, which is the stock that summarizes the AI trade more than any other…Two weeks ago, the stock hit an all-time high, exceeding $5 trillion in market value. (For us old hands, it has an eerie similarity to when the Nasdaq peaked out in March 2000 – also at the nice round number of around 5,000.)Since then:The Trump administration agreed to dial down its tariff war with China…The U.S. government shutdown ended…And Nvidia reported results and guidance that exceeded analyst expectations.All these things are good news for Nvidia. And yet, the stock is down 12% from its recent peak.And the reaction to the earnings announcement itself was the most telling. Again, the company handily beat estimates and gave guidance ahead of Wall Street expectations. The stock initially climbed 5%… then reversed intraday to close 3% lower.It’s a sign that folks who own the stock are using good news as an opportunity to exit. This is a giant bell ringing not just for Nvidia but for the market as a whole.AI isn’t just a tech phenomenon – it’s a meaningful part of the entire country’s GDP growth. It is the biggest driver of prosperity on Main Street…But on Wall Street, Mr. Market is now telling us it’s all priced in.Take heed of these lessons and proceed with extreme caution.Lastly today, a shoutout to our Stansberry’s Investment Advisory team…I (Corey) will close today’s Digest with great news for subscribers who followed the Investment Advisory team’s advice on Semrush (SEMR).Semrush is just an obscure software business… that is, unless you followed their recommendation just about four months ago.Last week, shares of Semrush surged nearly 75% on news that Adobe (ADBE) is acquiring the business in an all-cash deal that valued it at $1.9 billion.Stansberry Research senior analyst Alan Gula writes more about the deal, why it happened, and how it confirms the idea behind the Investment Advisoryrecommendation in a piece for our Stock Market Trends website here.You see, Semrush is a leader in search engine optimization (“SEO”) tools. But as Alan explains, “this acquisition isn’t just about SEO… it’s Adobe securing the ‘discovery layer’ in a world where AI increasingly answers questions before users ever reach a website.”The deal highlights precisely the view that Alan and the Investment Advisory team had on Semrush months ago… that it would be a beneficiary of AI, not a casualty.The title of subscribers’ August 1 issue was “Buy This Keyword King Before the Market Discovers Its AI Secret.” That’s what just subscribers got a chance to do. Those who followed the team’s advice are sitting on a roughly 31% gain in the position in just a few months.In This Week on Wall Street, our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk breaks down why metals, mining, and minerals could be one of the biggest investment stories of 2025 and 2026… even bigger than artificial intelligence. While everyone has been focused on AI, Matt explains why a global shortage of key materials, a massive rebuild of global industry, and a total flip in government policy are all converging to drive mining stocks higher.Watch the video on our YouTube page, and be sure to like and subscribe to get more of our free video content. While you’re at it, be sure to follow Stansberry Research on our social media channels, too.Recommended Links:Rick Rule: ‘This Changes Investing Forever’For the first time ever, Washington is choosing which stocks succeed – using YOUR tax dollars – and the gains have already been explosive. Some stocks are surging hundreds of percent. Market legend Rick Rule says this shift “changes investing forever.” Get up to speed immediately. Click here for the full story (and a free stock recommendation).Are You Stockpiling This ‘Safe’ Asset?While the top 1% rake in trillions of dollars, millions of “regular” investors are parked in a “safe” asset that could be cheating them of a chance to multiply their wealth. If you’re one of them, you need to watch this free video – it explains exactly which stock to buy immediately and how a “Melt Up Tsunami” could send even more stocks soaring higher. Click here to find out more.New 52-week highs (as of 11/21/25): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Cencora (COR), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Alphabet (GOOGL), Grail (GRAL), iShares Biotechnology Fund (IBB), IQVIA (IQV), Medtronic (MDT), Roche (RHHBY), Travelers (TRV), UGI (UGI), and Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV).In today’s mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris’ latest Friday essay… and more thoughts on the U.S. government’s $1 billion loan to Constellation Energy to reopen a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.“I think that the White House is only the world’s second richest hedge fund. Number one is really [Chinese President] Xi’s ‘White House,’ at least in terms of money already spent. We are now in a periodic table ‘arms race’ with China, that until Trump started all this new tariffing business in the last 9 months, was only occasionally simmering before. Remember, China does not really believe in a free market economy. China believes that they should be running the world along with Russia…” – Subscriber Peter S.“It makes more sense for a huge project like this to draw its power from one huge source. Reactivating the nuclear plant is a perfect solution in my opinion. If these AI projects pull their power needs from our regular consumer grids, they will drive up electric rates for all of us, outbidding our personal and business needs. You and I can’t compete with Nvidia on pricing!”There is precedent for this. Disney World has its own utilities – power, water, waste management – rather than competing with the citizens of Kissimmee, FL. When they built the Mall of Georgia in Buford close to where I lived at the time, they built a water and sewer system for it so it wasn’t pulling water off the grid for the town of Buford.”You can fuss about the loan and all of us paying for it, but every major city has done the same thing when they built a big ol’ sports stadium to lure in a major league ball team. Loans, gifts, tax breaks, whatever the powers that be can come up with to outbid another town, they toss it in the hopper. And who pays for that? Not just the ticket buyers.”So, I think this was a decent decision. Maybe I would like to see some kind of payback provision, such as in ten years’ time they begin paying back $500 million/year, but politicians aren’t finance gurus (obviously!).” – Subscriber Jacqueline G.All the best,Corey McLaughlin with Gabe MarshankBaltimore, Maryland and Berkeley, California November 24, 2025Stansberry Research Top 10 Open RecommendationsTop 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT Microsoft02/10/121,522.5%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryMSFT Microsoft11/11/101,479.9%Retirement MillionaireADP Automatic Data Processing10/09/08942.9%Extreme ValueBRK.B Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09793.4%Retirement MillionaireWRB W.R. Berkley03/15/12715.2%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryGOOGL Alphabet12/15/16638.0%Retirement MillionaireAFG American Financial10/11/12507.8%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryALS-T Altius Minerals03/26/09482.7%Extreme ValueAXP American Express08/04/16480.5%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryHSY Hershey12/07/07480.1%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPlease note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.Top 10 Totals5Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter3Retirement MillionaireDoc2Extreme ValueFerrisTop 5 Crypto Capital Open RecommendationsTop 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD Bitcoin11/27/182,209.1%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/182,173.3%Crypto CapitalONE/USD Harmony12/16/191,030.8%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD Polygon02/26/21652.8%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21626.6%Crypto CapitalPlease note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.Stansberry Research Hall of FameTop 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of FameTop 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto CapitalYou have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest click here.Published by Stansberry Research.You’re receiving this e-mail at pahovis@aol.com. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. 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All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. |
