Signals amid the data blackout… Easier money expectations continue… A dangerous game… When the Fed cuts, inflation soars… A bubble waiting to happen… Get ready for the great bond ‘fire sale’…

Helpful signs amid the ‘blackout’…

The U.S. government is still firmly capable of spending other people’s (taxpayers’) money… But today, it remained partially closed today for an eighth straight day.

I (Corey McLaughlin) will spare you the reports of political nonsense. But when it comes to the markets, one of the important impacts is a “blackout” of some government-published economic data that typically drives short-term market action.

It began last Thursday when no one compiled the weekly jobless-claims numbers… then continued on Friday when the scheduled monthly “nonfarm payrolls” day came and went without a report. This left analysts guessing as to what the numbers would have shown.

Since then, we’ve seen a few data estimates worth relaying.

The first is from the Chicago Federal Reserve about the jobs market. (Yes, the Fed and its regional banks remain open as “essential” institutions.)

Remember when President Donald Trump fired his Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) commissioner after that giant revision in the numbers two months ago? Turns out, the Chicago Fed innovated and began publishing an estimate of the BLS’s monthly jobs report every other week. Perhaps the Fed saw a government shutdown looming, too.

On Friday, the Chicago Fed showed a 4.34% estimate for the unemployment rate in September, which was just a touch above the 4.32% mark for August. So that’s not much of a change if you believe those numbers.

We’ll bookmark this site for future use – even after the government reopens. It’s the labor-market equivalent of the Cleveland Fed’s inflation-estimate forecasts.

Some other signals…

The private-equity giant Carlyle is invested in a lot of businesses in the U.S. and around the world. Yesterday, it created its own estimates that suggest a weak jobs market.

Carlyle’s estimates are based on activity in the firms in which it has some stake. It used those to create a weighted number to correlate with the BLS’s usual report: just 17,000 new jobs created last month nationwide, down from an already-weak 22,000 in August.

Bank of America recently made note of credit-card activity that suggests a softening labor market, too.

These projections are far from perfect. But put it all together and there’s still enough data to go around to suggest Fed rate cuts are likely to continue… The central bank is focused on the labor market, which hasn’t turned around over the past month.

Federal-funds futures traders see a 95% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on October 29… along with nearly 80% odds of another at the Fed’s final meeting of 2025 on December 10.

For now, the idea of easier monetary policy has boosted sentiment around stocks – and lit a fuse for a possible “Melt Up.” We’re seeing more and more evidence every day.

Check these out…

True story: a company called REX Shares just filed to list 59 triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs to come out on December 22. REX covers all the tech stocks we’d expect like Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA)… plus other trendy names like UnitedHealth (UNH) and Trump Media & Technology (DJT).

Now, there’s a time and a place for some leverage. Some of our editors recommend trades that use it, like our Brett Eversole, who recommended a leveraged gold fund in 2023 to True Wealth Systems subscribers that’s now up roughly 165%.

As he explained at the time, this fund is double leveraged, meaning it rises 2% for every 1% rise in gold, but also falls 2% for every 1% drop. But as Brett wrote in his November 2023 recommendation in an issue titled “This Forgotten Crisis Hedge Is a Screaming Buy“…

We’re happy to take this extra risk, thanks to today’s great setup for gold. We’ve narrowed down the strike zone. And it’s time to swing at this fat pitch before gold surges higher.

Boy, has that been spot-on… But here, an ETF company created one big dump of 59 triple-levered funds on single stocks. It seems like a misguided appeal to the masses and greed at the wrong time.

And another example… Roundhill Investments announced today that it’s reviving its shuttered meme-stock ETF. This fund, with the ticker symbol MEME, was last super popular during the inflation-fueled days of 2021 when everyone suddenly poured into GameStop (GME).

The firm ended MEME in 2023 when sentiment had soured on stock market gambling. (This of course would have been a great time to get bullish over the longer run.)

And the reincarnated MEME sounds even worse than the first one. Per Bloomberg…

The reboot comes with a twist. The original version passively tracked a meme-stock index, but the new one is actively managed and zeros in on a tighter basket of roughly two dozen stocks that exhibit what Roundhill views as meme-like characteristics, such as extreme price volatility. Its top holdings from the get-go include Opendoor Technologies Inc., Plug Power Inc. and Applied Digital Corp.

Roundhill will look at a mosaic of inputs – not just quantitative signals, but also retail sentiment – to identify the next wave of meme names, according to Mazza. That means parsing subreddits, monitoring retail-versus-institutional trading flows and keeping tabs on the digital chatter that so often fuels the wild moves.

This is just a speculative bubble waiting to happen. I’ve seen similar “strategies” out there already… And the more that come out, the more they can feed on each other. It certainly feels to me like some extremely greedy market behavior just getting going.

We’ll keep watching and also keep our feet rooted in reality. Because as Nick Koziol explains to close things out today, we can’t forget the other side of the rate-cut story…

Where consumers and the Fed disagree…

For months, the Fed has talked about the progress made on inflation. That’s how it has justified paying more mind to a weakening labor market, letting it lower interest rates.

But real people aren’t so sure that our inflation nightmare is over. In the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for September, published today, folks’ estimates for inflation over the next 12 months jumped to 3.4%, from 3.2%.

And they see inflation rising at a 3% annual pace over the next three and five years. That’s higher than the current rate of inflation (2.7% in August), and well above the Fed’s 2% target range.

Consumer expectations for the rest of the economy aren’t great, either…

In this 1,200-person survey (which polls the same people each month for up to a year), 14.9% said they expect to lose their job in the next 12 months. And just 47.4% felt confident they’d find a new one within three months, well below the long-term average of 51%.

At the same time, folks expected their household spending to rise by just 4.7%. That’s the lowest growth since January, and the second-lowest since April 2021.

But consumer expectations aren’t the only warning sign out there.

As Stansberry’s Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase explained in a recent free presentation, there’s a “disconnect” between the stock market and everyday life. And he believes the cracks are just starting to show.

The consumer-debt picture is still ugly…

Total consumer debt climbed again in August, reaching $5.06 trillion, according to the Fed. That’s now within touching distance of the all-time high of $5.07 trillion – set last October.

Not only has the total debt load risen, but interest rates are still high – even with the Fed lowering its benchmark bank-lending rate range four times since September 2024.

Credit-card interest rates are a great example…

Credit-card debt made up 24% of nonhousing consumer debt at the end of the second quarter.

In August, the average credit-card interest rate came in at 21.4%. That’s down slightly from the high of 21.8% we saw in August 2024, but it’s well above the 14.6% we saw in 2021.

And with credit-card delinquencies at their highest level since 2011, folks are both falling behind and having to pay more in interest on their late payments.

The coming rate cuts will only make things worse…

As Mike wrote in the September issue of Credit Opportunities, long-term interest rates (which are made by the market more than the Fed) won’t come down until folks are confident that inflation is under control.

But the Fed’s rate cuts are having the opposite effect. From Mike…

Remember, the 10-year Treasury is the most important interest rate in the U.S. economy. It influences mortgage rates, credit-card interest rates, and corporate borrowing costs.

And this rate likely won’t fall until investors are confident that inflation is headed lower. But instead of taming inflation, the Fed is stoking the fire… Lowering interest rates is inflationary, not deflationary.

So the rate cuts may help the labor market side of the equation, but they run the risk of sending inflation and interest rates skyrocketing. That likely means higher interest rates on the 10-year Treasury – and therefore higher rates on credit-card debt, car loans, and mortgages.

If we see that play out, folks will be under even more pressure from their debt loads. And they’ll pull back further on spending as a result – hurting the economy even more.

That’s not the only place Mike sees cracks forming…

As Mike wrote in a special report to Credit Opportunities subscribers, some of the largest funds in the world have already been forced to sell investments in private equity and commercial real estate as the challenges of increased debt pile up. More from Mike…

What we’re witnessing is the beginning of a massive wave of forced selling.

When big investors like this are forced to sell assets, prices can fall fast and hard.

That’s why Mike just went live with an all-new presentation to show folks how to prepare themselves.

What he’s talking about signals trouble ahead for consumers and the economy in general. But it also means a tremendous opportunity ahead to buy the type of corporate-bond investments Mike recommends in Credit Opportunities.

In short, the stage is set for a coming “fire sale” where investors can “scoop up assets at bargain-bin prices.”

As Mike explains, he’s not alone in getting ready for a buying spree. Some of the world’s largest hedge funds are sitting on huge piles of cash to be deployed during the fire sale. And you can do the same thing.

Credit Opportunities subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find the details about the investments Mike is recommending in a pair of new reports here and here…

And if you’re interested in learning more and getting access, Mike’s free presentation will show you how to position yourself to get ahead of this huge wave of money. But you must act now – today is the last day to watch Mike’s message.

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Until Midnight Tonight: ‘No One Is Prepared for This Panic’ Corporate bankruptcies are now at their highest level since 2008. The Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund, and the Bank of England have all issued urgent alerts. And behind closed doors, hedge funds are scrambling as a new wave of forced selling threatens to rip through the markets. In other words, the system is starting to crack. In a new emergency briefing, one veteran analyst reveals the exact steps to take before unprepared investors get crushed. Until midnight tonight, see his emergency briefing here. Marc Chaikin: Nvidia’s ‘Dark Secret’ Could Mint Countless New Billionaires Starting TODAY Nvidia rose 32,000% after Marc Chaikin first recommended it in 2015. But the world’s top AI stock has a dark secret. Without the proprietary tech from an obscure stock most Americans have never heard of… Nvidia’s biggest breakthroughs wouldn’t be possible. Now, this relatively tiny company is launching a new technology that could accelerate Nvidia’s new product pipeline by 8,000%. The time to buy is right now. For more details from Marc – and to make sure you get his full recommendation – go here before midnight tonight.

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New 52-week highs (as of 10/7/25): BWX Technologies (BWXT), iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy Fund (DBMF), Equinox Gold (EQX), Ero Copper (ERO), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), Monster Beverage (MNST), OR Royalties (OR), Ormat Technologies (ORA), abrdn Physical Palladium Shares Fund (PALL), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Sprott (SII), Travelers (TRV), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), Veeva Systems (VEEV), W.R. Berkley (WRB), and Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU).

In today’s mailbag, more feedback on the late Marty Zweig… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

“Just a note that my wife and I used to watch Wall Street Week regularly (Louie, Louie), and Marty Zweig was our favorite guest.” – Subscriber Sherwin R.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
October 8, 2025