The Fed Was Expected. This Is What Investors Missed

RJ Hamster

The Fed Was Expected. This Is What Investors Missed

Beyond the cut, today’s story is electricity, tickets, uranium, and solar—capital is already choosing its winners.

MARKET PULSE

Fed Delivers a ‘Risk-Management’ Cut; Stocks End Mixed

The Fed trimmed rates by 25bps, the first cut in nine months, and signaled two more for 2025.

Chair Powell framed the move as risk management, a balancing act between stubborn inflation and a cooling labor market.

Not everyone agreed. Governor Stephen Miran dissented, pressing for a steeper 50bps move, underscoring how divided the committee remains.

Markets popped on the release, but Powell’s press conference cooled enthusiasm. By the close, stocks were mixed: relief without conviction.

Across markets, the reaction was measured.

Treasuries: the 10-year hovered near 4%, a sign bond investors aren’t rushing to reprice growth.
Dollar: little changed, suggesting no sharp divergence from global peers.
Gold: stayed pinned near highs, reinforcing the defensive hedges that have built up around policy risk.

Powell leaned harder on the maximum employment side of the mandate, pointing to softening labor data as justification. His argument was that inflation remained elevated but manageable if growth cools.

Futures markets kept a “slow and steady” profile, with two cuts still the base case.

The nuance: traders are watching Powell’s tolerance for markets to price in more. If he pushes back, the rally stalls. If he doesn’t, risk assets may sprint ahead of the Fed’s own dots.

Consensus was delivered. The signal now is tone, not the cut, Powell gave flexibility, not a green light.

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IPO WATCH

StubHub’s First Day: From Pop to Drop

StubHub came to market at $23.50 a share, right in the middle of the range. It popped on the open, then slid about 6% into the close.

On the surface, it looks like just another IPO swing. But the story underneath is more instructive.

StubHub has the ingredients investors like: it’s an asset-light, fee-driven marketplace in a category—live events—that has proven durable even when consumer spending tightens. The IPO cash will go toward paying down debt, giving the business a cleaner balance sheet.

But the red flags are hard to ignore.

Ticketing is one of the most cutthroat corners of consumer tech, with Ticketmaster, Vivid, and SeatGeek already battling for dominance.

And StubHub isn’t entering the public markets on even footing—CEO Eric Baker retains 88% of the voting power, raising governance concerns just as first-half sales are already decelerating.

Analysts worry the glow from Taylor Swift’s “Eras” tour may prove more of a peak than a baseline.

The Signal: StubHub’s debut shows how fragile the IPO window still is. Strong names can open hot, but they don’t get a free pass to sustain momentum.

For investors, this is the reminder: first-day pops rarely reward patience. If you like the long-term story, better entry points usually come after the first earnings call and insider unlock.

AI CORNER

AI’s Soaring Cost for Google, Meta, and Amazon: The Power Tab

Running one AI query can use as much electricity as powering a light bulb for an hour. Multiply that by billions of queries, and the cost curve becomes clear.

Every new data center soaks up enormous power, and that power is getting harder and more expensive to secure.

Big Tech can still outrun the bills. They own the full AI stack—ads, cloud, commerce—which keeps revenue growing faster than costs. They are also locking in long-term power deals, building on-site generation, and making each chip more efficient.

But scarcity is the deeper challenge.

In many regions, the grid simply can’t deliver enough. Interconnects are delayed, utilities are charging more for heavy users, and capital costs are swelling.

AI will keep expanding, but not at the breakneck pace markets have priced in.

Investor Takeaway: The winners in the AI race won’t just be the firms with the best models, they’ll be the ones with the smartest power strategy. The companies that solve the power problem first will separate themselves…not just in technology, but in returns.

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LIVE EVENTS DEMAND

Live Nation CEO: Tickets Are Still Underpriced

Even after years of price hikes, Live Nation’s chief says concert tickets still don’t match demand.

Translation: fans are willing to pay more, and promoters know it.

That pricing power supports not just tours but the entire ticketing ecosystem.

The backdrop is strong. Marquee acts continue to sell out, global routing keeps volume high, and consumers still favor “experiences over things.”

That combination means yields can keep climbing even if discretionary spending cools elsewhere.

But the industry can’t ignore the spotlight. Political and regulatory heat around service fees and “junk” charges is intensifying, and any new rules could dent margins.

Investor Takeaway: As long as demand stays this resilient, live-events cash flows remain robust—a tailwind for Live Nation and primary ticketing. For investors, it’s also a signal that resale platforms benefit when supply is tight and fans are willing to stretch for access.

NUCLEAR & URANIUM

BWX Wins $1.5B Contract as Uranium Fever Re-Ignites

BWX Technologies secured a $1.5B government deal to build a domestic uranium enrichment pilot, a key step in rebuilding the U.S. supply chain.

The announcement landed just as Energy officials called for expanding the strategic uranium reserve, sending uranium names (LEU, CCJ, UEC, UUUU, LTBR) sharply higher.

The setup is powerful. A clear policy tailwind is forming, with multi-year visibility for defense-linked fuel and fresh validation for the broader onshoring theme across nuclear.

That combination gives the sector durability investors have been waiting for.

But the payoff isn’t immediate. Most new capacity won’t arrive until after 2030, and today’s enrichment projects are defense-focused, not yet commercial.

The entire uranium trade remains highly sensitive to political will and funding cycles.

Investor Takeaway: BWXT stands out as a high-quality, defense-anchored nuclear pure play. Uranium equities, meanwhile, remain a policy momentum trade—volatile in the short term, but with a trajectory that points higher as government money flows in.

SOLAR RESILIENCE

Despite Politics, U.S. Solar Is Buzzing

Washington may be divided on renewables, but the market is speaking louder.

The U.S. added 12 gigawatts of utility-scale solar in the first half of the year, with another 21 GW expected before year-end, according to the EIA.

One surprise driver: AI and data centers, which are pushing utilities to line up massive new loads tied to digital growth.

Momentum is strong. Developers are racing to put “steel in the ground” while tax credits last, supply chains have steadied, and in many regions solar projects now move faster and cheaper than gas or nuclear alternatives.

But headwinds remain. Subsidy roll-offs will test economics, interconnect queues are clogging, and weaker developers may not survive the next shakeout.

Investor Takeaway: Utility-scale solar paired with storage looks sturdier than the headlines suggest, especially with AI demand acting as a new tailwind. The winners will be the firms that can execute cleanly and navigate the interconnect bottleneck.

THE CLOSING LENS

The Fed delivered exactly what the market expected and the market shrugged.

That says positioning was full.

From here, the path matters more than the point. The dots show two more cuts, but Powell kept optionality.

If growth holds and labor only softens at the edges, the slow-cut glide path stays intact.
If the data wobbles, the door to faster easing opens wider.

Beneath the headlines, one theme runs through the day: the infrastructure of growth.

AI’s power bill, concert ticket pricing, uranium policy, and solar’s buildout all show where capital is being pulled. These are the choke points and cash flows that will set the next cycle’s winners.

Investor Takeaway: Whether tomorrow’s tape cheers or yawns, the signal is clear, follow the flows beneath the surface, not just the Fed’s dots on the page.

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RJ Hamster