RJ Hamster
The Energy Crisis Is Here
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
Diesel prices have soared… When things can’t move, the economy dies… A global crisis… The Iran war has highlighted vulnerabilities… Opportunity in crisis…
The crisis I’ve been warning about is here…
As I explained earlier this month, even without the war in Iran, we’ve been facing a global supply shortage of oil and gas.
You see, our modern standard of living is built around energy. The AI boom is only increasing demand.
But since 2019, most of U.S. investment in oil and gas production – nearly 90% of it – hasn’t gone into growing global oil production. It has simply gone into offsetting production declines. America’s supply of refined products like diesel fuel is also contracting as refineries go dark.
These trends have been on a collision course destined to push oil, gas, and diesel prices higher. For example, Brent crude, the international benchmark, is up more than 50% this year.
And the average daily diesel price has soared 43% since February 27 – the day before the Iran war started.
In short, the Iran war accelerated the timeline… and the crisis has begun.
When things can’t move, the economy dies…
Most of us don’t think about how goods arrive at our doors. We simply click “buy” online, and they show up.
But the truth is, we all rely on trucks for the items we consume.
As I told Ferris Report subscribers in December, “[Diesel’s] use in trucking correlates nearly perfectly with U.S. GDP growth.”
There are 15 million commercial trucks in the U.S., 76% of which run on diesel. About 97% of the largest tractor trailers (known as Class 8 vehicles) run on diesel.
International trade relies on diesel trucks, too. The U.S.’s two biggest trading partners are Mexico and Canada. Roughly two-thirds of surface trade (trucks, rail, and pipelines) with Canada is hauled by trucks, as is roughly 85% of surface trade with Mexico.
Truckers are already suffering from higher diesel prices.
On March 22, the Wall Street Journal told the story of long-haul trucker Miguel Caveda. He paid $1,800 for diesel on a recent trip – 40% more than he paid just one month ago. Caveda told the Journal:
Any major repair, like, god forbid an engine failure or anything like that, I’m out of the business. I’m out.
I wonder how many others are on the brink of severe financial distress right now. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics says there are roughly 923,000 independent trucking owner operators like Caveda. One report noted that “owner operators form the backbone of the American freight system.”
The freight system these days is like a middle-aged man who has done too much heavy lifting. Now it’s having severe back pain. Caveda and others are already avoiding some of the work that causes that pain. As the Journal reported:
The sudden surge in diesel prices has eroded Caveda’s profit and upended his business in other ways, too. He has started searching out lighter hauls and avoiding hilly routes that guzzle fuel. He is also keenly aware that the steeper fuel costs will eventually trickle into the prices consumers pay for goods he is carrying – from tires to watermelon – assuming his business survives.
Taking lighter hauls and fewer hilly routes means hauling fewer goods over longer distances. And the dramatic increase in shipping costs means we’ll soon be paying more for those goods.
For example, Bloomberg reported on Roger Conner, whose company sells firewood:
[Diesel] powers every step of the supply chain for [Conner’s] company, RC Conner Enterprises: the megatrucks that carry the logs from suppliers to his facility in Exeter, New Hampshire; the machines that offload and process those logs into kiln-dried residential and restaurant-grade firewood; and the trucks that deliver the finished bundles and cords to customers across New England.
In a normal year, Conner told Bloomberg he would spend $6,800 a month on diesel. Now, he pays $11,000 a month for diesel fuel. So Conner has had to add a 5% fuel surcharge to his prices.
Conner says if prices keep rising, he’ll have to keep raising rates and will likely lose customers. As he told Bloomberg:
This is going to cripple our economy. I don’t think people think about how much the economy rides on diesel fuel.
One economist says current diesel prices alone will push up the consumer price index by 0.4%.
And it’s not just the U.S…
Australia is the most diesel-reliant economy in the world. As Bloomberg reports:
No major economy uses the fuel more lavishly. Consumption runs to about 7.7 barrels per person, per year, sufficient to fill the tank on a Ford Motor Co. F-150 pickup nine times over. That’s about 80% above US levels, and eight times more than China.
The Australian economy was once based entirely on wool. Now, as Bloomberg puts it, the Australian economy “floats on a lake of diesel.”
It makes sense. Australia has a population roughly the size of Florida’s, spread over a continent nearly the size of the U.S. Cities are often more than 600 miles apart, with goods moving between them via three- and four-trailer “road trains.”
Decades of bad government policy provided taxpayer-funded diesel fuel rebates to industrial users, incentivizing wasteful use. Now, Australian diesel prices have risen more than 50% since the Iran war started, and supply shortages loom.
Meanwhile, Brazil is the largest grower and exporter of soybeans, accounting for 40% of global production. It’s peak soybean-shipping season, and roughly 55% of the soy crop gets to export centers by truck. Since the start of the year, Brazilian soybean growers have been getting paid 15% less, and freight costs have risen between 40% and 80%.
The Philippines imports 90% of its oil from the Middle East. The Iran war has cut off its fuel supply, and it now relies on Russia, China, and other Asian countries for its critical energy.
Those are some potentially difficult folks to do business with, so the government declared a national energy emergency on Tuesday. The country’s president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., said high oil prices now threaten the Philippines’ energy security. It has less than two months’ supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Philippine diesel prices have doubled to $2 per liter ($7.57 per gallon). This morning, the New York Times reported that Philippine transport workers are striking due to high fuel prices. This includes drivers of jeepneys, the country’s iconic, brightly colored public utility vehicles.
In Germany, diesel rose to $2.62 per liter ($9.92 per gallon) earlier this month. On Thursday, the government approved a “price brake,” limiting gas stations to one price increase per day for gasoline and diesel.
That’s how bad the crisis is there. Germans are paying nearly $9 for a gallon of diesel, and gas stations want to increase prices multiple times per day. Of course, anyone who understands economics knows that capping prices will just make the shortage worse.
Three days ago, Slovenia became the first European country to impose fuel rationing. Newsweek reports:
Under measures announced over the weekend, private motorists were limited to purchasing up to 50 liters, about 13 gallons, per day, while companies and priority users such as farmers were capped at 200 liters, about 52 gallons, with the restrictions in effect until further notice.
And according to Shell CEO Wael Sawan, the crisis is just getting started in Europe:
South Asia was first to get that brunt. That’s moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April.
Folks in India are also panicking about likely fuel shortages, despite the state-run oil companies denying that a shortage exists. Folks are buying as much fuel as they can. The government has lowered fuel taxes to help buyers out.
As the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, the country will be hit by higher oil prices, but as a net exporter of refined products, it has so far avoided large price increases on gasoline and diesel.
Let’s be clear…
While the Iran war accelerated the fuel crisis, the source has always been the decline in supply. As I wrote to Ferris Report subscribers in December:
[The U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”)] is forecasting that in 2026, total inventories of gasoline, distillate fuel oil (which includes diesel), and jet fuel will hit their lowest levels since 2000. A March 2025 EIA forecast said jet fuel inventories could hit their lowest levels since 1963.
Last year, the EIA forecast diesel inventories would end 2025 and 2026 at multiyear lows.
The Iran war has simply revealed big vulnerabilities in fuel supply and demand. Even if the war ends soon and tankers are once again free to sail the Strait of Hormuz, the long-term supply picture still stands.
That’s why I’ve said energy stocks are “the trade of the year… maybe the decade.”
The two energy stocks I recommended in The Ferris Report in December are up more than 50%. One of the stocks I recommended in the February issue is up more than 20% already.
And energy stocks aren’t the only opportunity the Iran war has highlighted.
In the March issue of The Ferris Report, out today, I show subscribers the wealth-generating potential of a new technology that has dramatically changed the nature of warfare. (Ferris Report subscribers can find the issue right here. If you don’t already have a subscription to The Ferris Report, you can learn more here.)
You see, where there’s crisis, there’s opportunity. And investors who position themselves properly can profit.
An Update on SAM’s Tactical Select Strategy
“In order to survive and thrive in today’s market environment, investors must thread a very fine needle,” says Austin Root, chief investment officer of Stansberry Asset Management (“SAM”).
That thinking sits at the center of SAM’s Tactical Select strategy. SAM – a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission-registered investment adviser, separate from our publishing businesses – developed this strategy to handle market environments like the one we are experiencing today.
By combining deep fundamental research with quantitative analytics drawn from multiple sources – including tools from Chaikin Analytics, TradeSmith, Stansberry Research, and SAM’s own proprietary models – Tactical Select was designed to participate in market upside while managing downside risk.
Since launching in February 2023, Tactical Select has done what SAM hoped – it has outperformed its benchmark by 1,700 basis points (net of fees) as of January 31.
In a newly released webinar, Austin and SAM Deputy Chief Investment Officer Michael Joseph walk through how this disciplined framework has been applied across real market conditions, offering investors a practical look at how this strategy is designed to navigate uncertainty while remaining positioned for opportunity.
Click here to watch the on-demand webinar now!
Recommended Links:
‘The Worst Losses We’ve Suffered in Years Could Be Dead Ahead’
He accurately predicted the brutal 2022 bear market weeks before it struck. He predicted the COVID-19 crash, too… and even the tariff sell-off in April 2025. Now, legendary analyst Marc Chaikin is sounding the alarm again. Today, he reveals the move he says everyone should make immediately – before March 31. Learn how to protect yourself now – before it’s too late.
A ‘Record Number’ of Private Jets Spotted in California
On one night in February, 600 private jets flew out of a single California city. The same night, Elon Musk spent millions to send a message to 125 million Americans. Most people have no idea the two are connected. But Wall Street veteran Whitney Tilson says they are, and that what happened that night is the most important financial signal he has seen in years. He’s sharing his full analysis for free, here.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/26/26): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BP (BP), Chord Energy (CHRD), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Chevron (CVX), Diversified Energy (DEC), EOG Resources (EOG), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Matador Resources (MTDR), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), Tenaris (TS), Valaris (VAL), Valero Energy (VLO), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
A quiet mailbag today… What’s on your mind? As always, e-mail us atfeedback@stansberryresearch.com.
Good investing,
Dan Ferris
Medford, Oregon
March 27, 2026
Disclosure: Stansberry Asset Management (“SAM”) is a Registered Investment Adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. File number: 801-107061. Such registration does not imply any level of skill or training. Under no circumstances should this report or any information herein be construed as investment advice, or as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or other financial instruments. For more information on SAM, please visit here.
Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC (“Stansberry Research”) is not a current client or investor of SAM. SAM provides cash compensation to Stansberry Research for Stansberry Research’s advisory client solicitation services for the benefit of SAM. Material conflicts of interest may exist due to Stansberry Research’s economic interest in soliciting clients for SAM. Certain Stansberry Research personnel may also have limited rights and interests relating to one or more parent entities of SAM.
For important information about Stansberry Research’s relationship with SAM, click here.
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,282.7%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,180.4%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08794.9%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09767.9%Retirement MillionaireCIEN
Ciena10/20/22669.4%Stansberry Innovations ReportSII
Sprott01/11/18617.6%Extreme ValueWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12606.2%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16593.1%Retirement MillionaireALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09581.8%Extreme ValueHSY
Hershey12/07/07543.9%Stansberry’s Investment Advisory
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc3Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter1Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/181,730.4%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,714.1%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,008.5%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21641.9%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21479.7%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest click here.
Published by Stansberry Research.
You’re receiving this e-mail at pahovis@aol.com. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice.
© 2026 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or stansberryresearch.com.
Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.
Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility.
