The Decision Day

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Hello Peter Anthony Hovis,

The Decision Day

Wall Street traders are holding their breath until 2pm EST.

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at that time. Fed officials are widely expected to cut rates, and the biggest implications on the stock market’s short-term sentiment will be their 2026 outlook for rate cuts.

After today’s cut, Wall Street expects a deep division within the central bank on whether to cut further over the next few months. Some officials indicated that they believe the current rate level is neutral, which neither spurs nor constrains growth.

After cutting by 1.5 percentage points over the last 15 months, they also might think it would be prudent to pause the rate-cutting cycle to see how the economy behaves before resuming again, if necessary.

Due to the deep division, Fed Chair Jerome Powell might be forced to be noncommittal on doing more rate cuts during his press conference.

“He’s got to represent the spectrum of views, which go from one extreme to the other, and that is just a much harder message to convey,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.

(Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg)

The labor market continues to show resilience. Announced layoffs fell in November. Consumer spending was little changed in September. However, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation moved higher to 2.8% — above the Fed’s 3% target.

Swonk believes that the Fed might be inclined to pause for now to see how the labor market and inflation behave over the next few weeks.

“My sense is that they’re going to pause as they await more data now, because they have put some rate cuts into the system already,” Swonk said.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG (Photo: CNBC)

The Fed will also release the latest update on economic projections. Last September, eight officials supported lowering rates in 2026 no further than where the rate level would be after today’s cut, while nine saw at least two more cuts.

Wall Street is pricing in around two Fed cuts in 2026 after today’s cut.

If traders were forced to adjust their projections for 2026, it could force a sudden reset in stocks’ valuation. Otherwise, if Powell delivered nothing unexpected, it could signal the rally to keep going.

Today is going to be a big day.

This Company is a Major Player in the Fastest-Growing Sector of Finance

Today’s Stock Pick: Circle Internet Group (CRCL)

The crypto sector recently saw a brutal sell-off, so it could be an opportunity for a long-term investor to scoop up shares from the dip.

Circle Internet Group is one of them.

Namely, the company is a play on the biggest disruption to the financial sector in a long time.

The playbook of financial disruption is the following —

Start small, build trust, then scale until the old guard has no choice but to adapt.

Today, stablecoins (dollar-pegged tokens on blockchains) are following a strikingly similar arc.

Once confined to cryptographers and speculators, they now handle $27.6 trillion in 2024 transaction volume, overtaking Visa and Mastercard combined! Their circulation has crossed $215 billion.

Clearly, its growth has been explosive.

Listen, stablecoins retain what people trust about dollars: Stability.

But stablecoins rebuild the pipes underneath.

They move at internet speed, settle instantly, run 24/7, and cost pennies, not dollars.

Why? We know how slowly money moves in the current infrastructure.

That’s where Circle steps into the spotlight.

(Photo: NYSE)

As the issuer of USDC, Circle isn’t just a player in this revolution — it’s a central infrastructure.

In 2024 alone, USDC circulation grew more than 78% year over year, and monthly transaction volume hit $1 trillion in November. In Q3 2025, Circle reported $73.7 billion in USDC circulation, up 108% year over year. That same quarter, USDC on-chain transaction volume soared to $9.6 trillion, a 6.8× jump from a year before.

(Source: Circle Internet)

Those numbers aren’t just hype. They show adoption, traction, and trust.

What’s more, with the GENIUS Act signed into law in July and the CLARITY Act likely to pass soon, the U.S. is finally laying down the legal framework for stablecoins. These aren’t just laws. They’re the green light for every bank, every financial institution, to finally lean in.

For years, big players sat on the sidelines because the rules were unclear. Now, clarity equals credibility.

With that regulatory clarity, one of the biggest opportunities lies in cross-border payments. Every year, about $190 trillion moves across borders, of which $150 trillion flows through SWIFT, which is slow, expensive, and clunky.

Stablecoins can leapfrog that.

Bloomberg forecasts that stablecoins could handle 25% of cross-border flows by 2030, more than $55 trillion annually.

That’s a seismic shift.

And once businesses see how fast and cheap this is, they may not stop at sending money across seas. It could be payroll, e-commerce, point-of-sale, peer-to-peer transfers.

Now let’s be real: Circle isn’t risk-free. Its revenue today is heavily dependent on interest earned on reserves, which makes it vulnerable to rate pressures. In Q3, Circle reported revenue of $740 million (up 66% YoY).

When the time is right, Circle could be a good stock to bet on the future of stablecoins.

Bottom line: We’re watching what could become one of the foundational platforms of 21st century finance. User adoption is accelerating, regulatory structure is arriving, and the market is ripe for disruption. Circle Internet is poised to become a major player in the fast-growing sector, and the stock was recently beaten down. It could be a good play for dip buyers.

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