RJ Hamster
The Darker Story Hiding Behind Nvidia’s Latest Blowout
 Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 Nvidia’s growth is picking up speed again… Meanwhile, bankruptcies hit a 15-year high… And Americans are pulling money from 401(k)s… Setting up the next Fed meeting… The last jobs data… The leading AI chipmaker knocked it out of the park…By all metrics, Nvidia (NVDA) crushed its third-quarter results, which it reported yesterday after the markets closed.The AI bellwether reported a record $57 billion in revenue, above Wall Street’s estimate. What’s more, sales were up 62% year over year, reversing six straight quarters of slowing sales growth.On the earnings side, Nvidia’s net income jumped 65% to $31.9 billion, another record for the company.Looking forward, Nvidia forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion, up 65% year over year and above analysts’ expectations of $61.6 billion.That growth rate would be the first time Nvidia had two straight quarters of accelerating sales growth since the early days of the AI boom in late 2023 and early 2024.AI data centers continue springing up… And their demand for Nvidia’s chips is insatiable.And about that ‘bubble’…Not everyone was convinced after the report… In a series of posts on X after Nvidia’s earnings release, famed investor Michael Burry questioned the AI boom.Burry famously foresaw the end of the 2000s housing bubble, and he became a household name in The Big Short.Our colleague Dan Ferris recently covered Burry’s short position in AI stocks on our free Stock Market Trends site. And Burry isn’t backing down…In his posts, Burry continued to question whether big tech companies are correctly depreciating the value of their AI chips. In other words, he alleges that chips they’ve bought are worth less than the companies claim. This would mean they’re overstating current earnings.But he also highlighted Nvidia’s stock-based compensation (which he says dilutes shareholders’ earnings) and the circular nature of AI investments (which we highlighted yesterday). His conclusion: “Early is not wrong.”Nvidia isn’t concerned, though. As CEO and founder Jensen Huang said on the earnings call…There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different.By Nvidia’s account, the AI boom is still in full swing. Revenue growth is picking up again after 18 months of slowing. And it’s growing at an incredible rate for a company with a market cap above $4 trillion.And investors agreed, at least for a few hours… They sent Nvidia’s shares up more than 5% in after-hours trading, and the stock was still up this morning. Then it sold off with the rest of the market over fears that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates.That wraps up ‘Magnificent Seven’ earnings…With Nvidia’s report in the rear-view mirror, all seven of the Mag Seven companies have now released their latest quarterly earnings. And for the most part, they’ve all done pretty well. Just take a look at this chart from Forbes…Five of the seven companies beat Wall Street’s estimates for earnings growth in the quarter. And one of the two that missed – Meta Platforms (META) – would have done well if it weren’t for an unexpected one-time tax charge.And the five all beat the earnings growth of the average S&P 500 company… with Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Nvidia blowing the index away. So it’s no surprise that investors continue to pile into these few names. And they’re outperforming so far…The Roundhill Magnificent Seven Fund (MAGS) has risen more than 20% over the past 12 months – roughly doubling the 11% return for the S&P 500 over the same period. It even beats the 17% return for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index.Meanwhile, things are different on Main Street…The big tech and AI companies are thriving. But everyday folks are feeling the pressure in today’s economy. As our colleague and Stansberry’s Credit Opportunitieseditor Mike DiBiase explained in the portfolio update of yesterday’s issue…You see, consumer sentiment is once again near a record low.The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a preliminary reading of 50.3 in November. That’s the lowest reading since June 2022… which was in the middle of the last bear market, when inflation was more than 9%.That goes along with the consumer red flags we saw in earnings reports from Home Depot (HD) and Target (TGT) so far this week. And it’s not just sentiment…Bank of America recently reported the highest volume of 401(k) hardship withdrawals since it began tracking the data in 2022. According to the IRS, these withdrawals must serve an “immediate and heavy financial need.”Put another way, folks are paying their current expenses out of their retirement accounts.Businesses are feeling the pain, too…So far this year, 655 large U.S. companies have filed for bankruptcy, according to data from Standard & Poor’s.That’s almost as many bankruptcies of these companies as we saw in all of 2024. And it puts 2025 on pace for the most bankruptcies since 2010.(In this case, we’re not talking about large-cap stocks worth tens of billions of dollars. This data set defines “large” as public companies with more than $2 million in assets or liabilities, or private companies with at least $10 million in assets or liabilities.)Even the companies that aren’t bankrupt are struggling. More from Mike…Bloomberg reported that the number of “zombies” – companies that don’t earn enough to pay the interest on their debt – just hit the highest level since early 2022, right before the last bear market.Those zombie companies could transition into bankruptcy soon – if the Fed holds rates at this still-elevated level (versus the past 15 years). As we’ll discuss shortly, that’s a growing possibility.So while Nvidia’s earnings boosted the market today, and the AI boom will continue to do so, cracks are showing beneath the surface in the real economy.Once the AI hype wears off – or starts to show some cracks itself – we could see the issues in the real economy become a lot more important.Today, we saw the last official jobs report until after the Fed’s December meeting…That’s the nonfarm payroll data for September – which had been delayed because of the government shutdown.In September, the economy added 119,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”). That’s more than double Wall Street’s expectation for an increase of 50,000 jobs.But outside of the September headline jobs beat, the data was mixed. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above the estimate of 4.3% and the highest level since October 2021. Since bottoming at 3.4% in April 2023, the unemployment rate has been on a steady climb higher.And after revisions, the economy has now lost jobs in two of the past four months (13,000 in June and 4,000 in August).This is the last official payroll data we’re going to see before the Fed meets in December…Yesterday, the BLS delayed the release of October’s nonfarm payroll data. Instead, it will release October and November’s jobs data simultaneously on December 16. That’s just after the Fed’s next meeting, scheduled for December 9 and 10.All eyes are on the federal-funds rate. The market wants the Fed to cut rates and juice the economy with cheaper cash. But the Fed is also watching for signs of inflation, which remains above its 2% target.As we write, fed-funds futures traders narrowly expect the Fed to keep rates steady rather than cut rates, according to CME FedWatch.A month ago, these traders saw a 99% chance that the Fed would lower interest rates versus just a 0.6% chance the Fed wouldn’t move rates at all.Investors keyed in on the fact that the Fed is going to be “flying blind” into its next rate cut – with the most recent jobs data being more than two months old.With markets up big on the heels of Nvidia’s earnings early on, it looks like folks were more than happy to lock in some profits and wait for more clarity on the Fed and the economy. That pushed the markets down to end the day.President Donald Trump isn’t happy with dwindling rate-cut hopes, either…Yesterday, the president continued his attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, saying that he’d “love” to fire him. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates for some time. Even with the Fed in a cutting cycle, it hasn’t been quick enough for him.Just look at the actions of Trump’s hand-picked temporary Fed governor Stephen Miran as evidence…At both meetings where Miran has voted so far, he voted for 50-basis-point rate cuts both times, dissenting from the Fed’s decisions to cut 25 basis points. And Miran has said that a 50-basis-point cut in December is “appropriate.”So we’re willing to bet he’s going to dissent for the third time, no matter what the rest of the Fed decides.Powell isn’t the only one on the chopping block…In the same speech yesterday, Trump (jokingly, we think) took aim at Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. CNBC quoted the president saying…The only thing Scott’s blowing it on is the Fed. The rates are too high, Scott, and if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m gonna fire your ass.In a statement to CNBC later, White House spokesman Kush Desai walked back those comments, saying the White House “maintains complete confidence” in Bessent.But if the Fed does pause in December like the market now believes, both Powell and Bessent could find themselves back in Trump’s crosshairs.Recommended Links:Which Stock Will the White House Buy Next?The richest entity in history – the U.S. government – is now charging into the stock market… buying shares of public companies… and sending them soaring hundreds of percent. One jumped 90% overnight. Another surged 200% in just 24 HOURS. Which stock is next in the crosshairs? Learn more here before the next buy order hits.Can You Still Trust This Bull Market?Is this bubble set to pop? Headlines say yes, but one market veteran with a 15-year track record says not yet. A historic pattern is taking shape that could send $7.4 trillion pouring into select stocks, triggering a Melt Up that could run for years to come. You don’t want to miss it. Watch this video for the No. 1 stock you should own immediately.New 52-week highs (as of 11/19/25): Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Lumentum (LITE).In today’s mailbag, feedback on the U.S. government’s $1 billion loan to Constellation Energy to reopen a nuclear power plant, which we wrote about yesterday… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com“So, the Department of Energy’s $1B [loan] to Constellation for restarting the plant, instead of having the actual consumers pay for it, will spread out the cost over the entire U.S. tax base. That’s a solution? Thanks government.” – Subscriber D.L.“It virtually NEVER makes sense to have governmental interference with businesses of any kind. Costs become inversely related to efficiency when the government participates in any endeavors. Any government loan removes lending resources available to other commercial and individual loan programs, which in aggregate elevate the cost (interest rate) of any loans that are initiated.” – Subscriber Mike M.All the best,Nick Koziol with Corey McLaughlinBaltimore, Maryland November 20, 2025Stansberry Research Top 10 Open RecommendationsTop 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT Microsoft02/10/121,568.2%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryMSFT Microsoft11/11/101,506.3%Retirement MillionaireADP Automatic Data Processing10/09/08934.0%Extreme ValueBRK.B Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09790.9%Retirement MillionaireWRB W.R. Berkley03/15/12701.9%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryGOOGL Alphabet12/15/16621.2%Retirement MillionaireALS-T Altius Minerals03/26/09511.6%Extreme ValueAFG American Financial10/11/12503.8%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryHSY Hershey12/07/07471.4%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryAXP American Express08/04/16467.6%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPlease note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.Top 10 Totals5Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter3Retirement MillionaireDoc2Extreme ValueFerrisTop 5 Crypto Capital Open RecommendationsTop 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD Bitcoin11/27/182,330.9%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/182,306.5%Crypto CapitalONE/USD Harmony12/16/191,038.1%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD Polygon02/26/21655.8%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21436.1%Crypto CapitalPlease note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.Stansberry Research Hall of FameTop 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of FameTop 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto CapitalYou have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest click here.Published by Stansberry Research.You’re receiving this e-mail at pahovis@aol.com. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice.© 2025 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or stansberryresearch.com.Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. |
