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This Week’s Exclusive Content
Chevron Hits New Highs Due to Oil’s Rally, But Is It Sustainable?
Reported by Sam Quirke. Article Posted: 3/12/2026.
Key Points
- Chevron shares have surged to fresh all-time highs as rising oil prices fuel renewed investor interest in energy stocks.
- The rally has been driven largely by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears of supply disruptions in key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
- However, weakening technical momentum and fresh government intervention to contain oil prices raise questions about whether the surge can continue.
- Special Report:Â Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) has quietly become one of the best-performing mega-cap stocks in recent weeks. Shares hit a fresh all-time high in mid-March, adding to a rally that has lifted the stock nearly 30% in 2026 and returned it to the spotlight for investors.
Much of the surge has been driven by rising oil prices. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including major disruptions to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, have stoked fears that global crude supplies could tighten significantly if the conflict intensifies.
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As the oil rally gathered momentum, energy stockssupplanted AI as one of the market’s top talking points for investors. After its biggest run in years, the key question is whether Chevron’s rally still has room to run. Let’s take a closer look.
Oil Prices Have Been the Driving Force
The primary engine behind Chevron’s rally has been the recent surge in global oil prices, driven by heightened geopolitical risk. The Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints—has been a particular focus, since a large share of seaborne oil exports passes through the narrow waterway and any disruption tends to move energy prices sharply.
As tensions rose, investors repositioned toward companies that benefit directly from higher crude prices. Integrated majors like Chevron typically gain in that environment because stronger crude prices boost upstream profits, which helps explain the stock’s roughly 30% gain in recent months.
Governments Are Trying to Contain the Surge
Rapid oil-price increases raise inflation risks, and governments often act to prevent energy costs from spiraling. One common response is releasing crude from strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize markets.
Reports this week indicate that all 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency have agreed to release hundreds of millions of barrels from their strategic reserves to ease pressure on global oil markets.
If those releases succeed in containing prices, or if tensions in the Middle East begin to ease, crude could retrace some of its recent gains. If that happens, the rally that lifted energy stocks like Chevron could lose momentum and the stock could pull back.
Technical Signals Suggest Momentum May Be Slowing
Certain technical indicators suggest the recent momentum may be weakening. Although Chevron has hit record highs, several momentum measures have shown early signs of peaking.
For example, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) recently flashed a bearish crossover and has trended downward over the past two weeks. The MACD gauges the relationship between short- and long-term price trends, and a negative turn often signals fading upward momentum.
Chevron’s relative strength index (RSI) has also been drifting lower since the rally began. The RSI tracks the speed and size of price moves, and a decline after a strong advance can indicate buyers are becoming less aggressive.
When these signals occur together they carry more weight than when they appear alone. While technical indicators are often lagging, they can provide an early warning that the balance between buyers and sellers may be shifting.
Analysts Still See Additional Upside
Despite those warning signs, Wall Street analysts remain broadly positive on Chevron. Citigroup recently reiterated a Buy rating and set a price targetof $210. UBS also reiterated a Buy with a $212 target, implying roughly 10% upside. Those projections suggest analysts believe Chevron could continue to climb if the favorable energy backdrop persists.
Part of that optimism reflects Chevron’s financial strength. The company generates substantial cash flow when oil prices are elevated, allowing it to maintain a generous dividend while continuing to invest in future production.
The Next Move Will Depend on Oil Prices
Chevron is well-positioned to benefit as long as oil prices stay elevated, so its share price is likely to remain closely tied to the direction of crude. However, rallies driven by geopolitical shocks can be fragile as the initial catalyst fades.
If tensions ease or further government interventions stabilize oil markets, investors may quickly take profits. Until then, expect Chevron to find support near its newly established highs while the energy rally persists, but be mindful that momentum indicators and policy responses could quickly change the outlook.
Today’s Bonus Article
As Tech Earnings Grow, This ETF Still Hasn’t Caught Up
Author: Jessica Mitacek. Published: 3/26/2026.
Key Points
- Despite strong earnings growth and record revenue driven by AI demand, the tech sector is down nearly 5% year-to-date, creating a disconnect between company health and share prices.
- The QQQM is trading in a tight range and approaching oversold territory, offering investors an entry point before tech stock prices catch up to their financial performances.
- While mega-cap Mag 7 stocks have struggled recently, QQQM’s exposure to steady performers in consumer staples and communication services has helped offset tech-sector volatility.
- Special Report:Â Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Despite the tech sector’s struggles this year, the companies that make up that corner of the market continue to demonstrate strong financial health.
Fueled by intensifying demand for artificial intelligence (AI), tech companies—especially those in the Magnificent Seven—have delivered robust earnings growth, record revenue and confident guidance from management teams across cloud computing, cybersecurity, fintech and semiconductors.
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Although investors have been rotating out of tech since Q4 2025, analysts are still raising earnings forecasts for 2026, and many Q1 results easily beat Wall Street expectations.
Stock prices, however, have not yet caught up to that earnings growth. As a whole, the tech sector is down nearly 5% year-to-date (YTD), making it the fourth-worst performer among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors.
On an individual basis, the picture is worse. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, has fallen more than 20% YTD—the largest decline among the Magnificent Seven—even though most of those stocks are down in 2026.
Tech is approaching oversold territory, which suggests that once it bottoms and reverses, shares could eventually close the gap with those improved fundamentals.
For investors, that makes exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the tech sector—like the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQM)—an attractive way to position ahead of a potential rebound.
Despite Earnings Growth, QQQM Has Been Mostly Flat
Reflecting the performance of the tech giants in its portfolio, QQQM is down nearly 5% YTD. Even with more than a 19% gain over the past year, the fund has traded in a tight range since early September 2025.
Many of the tech giants in QQQM have reported blowout earnings, yet the market has often reacted negatively—whether due to valuation concerns or fears of an AI bubble.
Those short-term market swings don’t change the fundamentals. Take NVIDIA—the fund’s largest holding, currently weighted at 8.80%—which, despite a YTD loss of more than 7%, continues to show strong growth.
Among the fund’s top five holdings, four companies produced sizable quarterly earnings-per-share (EPS) growth (listed in order of weighting):
- NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA): 95.56%
- Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL): 18.33%
- Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT): 59.75%
- Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN): 13.60%
The exception is Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which reports Q1 earnings on April 28.
It is reasonable to view QQQM as simply biding its time before breaking out of its range. Institutional activity supports that thesis: although institutional selling rose in Q4 2025 by $1.84 billion, it was more than offset by institutional buying of $3.09 billion as the smart money used the sell-off to add exposure.
Outside the Magnificent Seven, QQQM Holds a Mix of Outperformers and Laggards
YTD losses among the mega-cap Magnificent Seven have muted strong performances further down the QQQM roster.
Micron (NASDAQ: MU), the ETF’s 11th-largest holding at a 2.53% weighting, has been one of the fund’s best performers this year after a nearly 217% gain in 2025 and continued upside versus expectations.
Semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), with a 1.50% weighting, has also delivered an impressive run following a 54% gain in 2025.
Still, the ETF is dominated by large tech names that have lagged since Q4. In addition to the beaten-up Magnificent Seven, underperformance from Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) and Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO)has kept returns subdued relative to the S&P 500 this year.
That said, while the fund has a heavy tilt toward tech (nearly 47% of the portfolio), it also includes names from sectors that have performed better this year, which provides some built-in diversification.
Consumer staples account for more than 8% of the fund and are the fifth-best performer among S&P 500 sectors in 2026. Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) make up 3.24% and 2.36% of the ETF’s holdings, respectively, and have served as defensive contributors.
Communication services represent about 14.6% of QQQM, while consumer discretionary contributes roughly 13.4%. That diversification offers partial hedges that have helped offset larger YTD losses from the biggest tech positions.
In short, QQQM combines exposure to some of the strongest profit growers in the market with a built-in, if underappreciated, diversification. For investors looking to play a potential tech rebound while keeping exposure to defensive and cyclical names, the ETF may offer a balanced way to participate.
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