“When companies with actual nuclear experience are tempering expectations while startups are screaming higher, you’ve got a classic bubble.”

Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance 

At a conference in New Orleans last month, I stood up and told a room full of investors to sell small modular reactor companies. I specifically called out OKLO – a company with no sales, no approvals, and a market cap in the billions.

It’s down $30 since that conference.

In the War Room, I told members I was shorting OKLO when it was trading north of $180. It’s now in the $90s. And if it reaches those levels again, I’m shorting it again.

Why? Because the technical reality is about to collide with the hype train at 200 mph.

The Trade That Taught Me Everything

One of the hottest “trades” of 2025 has been in the small modular reactor space. The thinking: the US needs energy for all these data centers, so why not make small nuclear reactors to power towns, neighborhoods, or individual facilities?

Perfect solution, right?

Actually, I’m up over 1300% on my recommendation in this sector – Rolls Royce PLC. But my Rolls recommendation wasn’t for their SMR technology. It was for their aircraft engines and travel exposure.

The SMR technology? Still years away.

Why the “Leaders” Are Pumping the Brakes

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There are two actual leaders in this space: GE Vernova and Rolls Royce. Both companies – with real nuclear expertise and billion-dollar R&D budgets – say commercial volume won’t arrive until mid-next decade.

Yet startups with no revenue are trading at billion-dollar valuations on expectations this technology is ready now.

When companies with actual nuclear experience are tempering expectations while startups are screaming higher, you’ve got a classic bubble.

The Technical Realities Nobody Mentions

Regulatory Nightmare: Nuclear reactors must go through design certification, site approval, and construction licenses. Even “modular” designs require full safety analysis. The first U.S. SMR design from NuScale took 6+ years just to get certified.

No Production Lines: SMRs are supposed to be factory-built, but no mass-manufacturing facilities exist. Reactor components require specialized metallurgy, welding, and quality control. Supply chains for nuclear-grade parts take years to establish.

Financing Black Hole: No SMRs have demonstrated cost savings. Every delay inflates projected costs. Utilities prefer predictable returns; SMRs remain unproven.

Skills Shortage: Nuclear construction requires certified welders, nuclear-qualified electricians, and specialized concrete crews. These skills are scarce, creating labor bottlenecks.

Fuel Supply Gap: Many advanced SMRs require HALEU fuel, which has no domestic commercial supply chain. Building HALEU capacity alone takes several years.

First-of-a-Kind Penalties: Initial units take longer, cost more, and require redesigns during construction. Only after multiple builds can SMRs hit promised speed and cost goals.

Your Action Plan

SMR technology will eventually work and transform energy production. But even optimistic projections show 2-4 years for design and licensing, 3-5 years for construction, 2-3 years for testing, plus additional years to scale manufacturing.

The market is pricing commercial deployment as imminent. Reality says 10-15 years minimum.

Companies like OKLO trade at billions with no revenue and technology that won’t be viable this decade. When reality hits, these valuations will crater.

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Monument Traders Alliance, LLC

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