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3 Reasons to Buy Sprouts Farmers Market Ahead of Earnings

Written by Sam Quirke. Published 10/12/2025.

Having hit record highs at the start of the summer, Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (NASDAQ: SFM) has spent much of the past few months sliding lower. That decline is painful for investors who expected the rally to continue, but for those sitting on the sidelines there are reasons to be interested.

Shares of the specialty grocery chain have fallen more than 40% since June in an almost one-directional slide. After logging 15 days of straight losses, however, the stock has started to stabilize this week, rebounding from Tuesday’s low and holding steady. Technical indicators suggest the selling pressure may be easing, and with earnings due later this month, bulls appear to be mounting their first real defense in weeks.

For bargain hunters and those who like a comeback story, Sprouts could be worth a look. While the sell-off has been severe and the chart is ugly, there are several reasons to consider buying ahead of earnings. Here are the top three.

Reason #1: A Strong Track Record of Beating Expectations

First and foremost is the company’s earnings record. Over multiple quarters Sprouts has developed a reputation for consistently outperforming Wall Street’s forecasts on both revenue and earnings. In its most recent report, at the end of July, GAAP EPS came in about 9% above consensus, while revenue produced the company’s second-highest print ever.

That consistent outperformance has bolstered investor confidence in management’s ability to navigate a volatile grocery and consumer environment. Whether through margin discipline, product-mix optimization, or store-level efficiencies, Sprouts has repeatedly shown its model can work even when broader retail peers struggle.

Given that history, the recent sell-off feels largely like profit-taking that escalated. Heading into the upcoming earnings report, expectations are modest—an advantage for a company with a track record of beating estimates. Sprouts won’t need a flawless quarter to regain momentum.

Reason #2: Technicals Are Improving After a Steep Slide

The second reason is the technical setup. After a steady decline since early summer, indicators are beginning to turn more constructive. Sprouts’ RSI sits near 20—well below the 30 level typically associated with oversold conditions—suggesting selling momentum could be drying up.

Tuesday’s bounce from intraday lows represented the first convincing defense of support in weeks, and the stock has held that level since. The MACD line is also curling higher and appears poised for a bullish crossover, another early signal that momentum may be shifting back toward buyers.

If the stock can hold above the key $100 level into next week while attracting some pre-earnings buying, this week’s low could form a durable line of support.

Reason #3: Analysts Still See Big Upside

The final piece of the puzzle is continued analyst optimism. Despite the weakness in the shares, many firms remain constructive.

Just last week, the team at Evercore ISI maintained its Outperform rating on the company while assigning a fresh price target of $170. From where the stock traded on Thursday, that implies roughly 60% upside.

The Evercore note followed Sprouts’ announcement of a $1 billion share repurchase program, a strong vote of confidence from management in the company’s long-term outlook.

A buyback of that size not only offers downside support but also signals that management views the current share price as undervalued.

Other firms have echoed this view, noting Sprouts is well-positioned to benefit from steady grocery demand, continued expansion of private-label offerings, and the long-term shift toward health-conscious consumer spending.

Bullish Outlook for Q4

After a slide like this, Sprouts has work to do to win back confidence. But with earnings approaching, oversold technicals in place, and analysts reiterating their optimism, the company looks poised for a rebound.

The technical picture suggests the worst of the selling pressure may be behind it, while the company’s consistent history of outperforming expectations gives investors a tangible reason for optimism. If shares can hold above this week’s lows and momentum indicators confirm a reversal in the coming sessions, Sprouts could be setting up for a strong run into earnings and beyond.