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ASML Can Hit New Highs, But It Won’t Be Easy: Here’s Why

Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 10/15/2025.

ASML’s (NASDAQ: ASML) stock price could hit new highs because the company is well-positioned for the AI boom, and the chart action is bullish. Up 40% since early September, the market for this semiconductor equipmentmaker is rallying amid the AI news cycle and bullish analyst sentiment, driving it toward a new all-time high. Based on current price action, the new high could be reached before year-end and mark the start of a much larger movement.

The market for ASML stock could advance by as much as $300, or roughly 30%, from the critical resistance point relatively quickly. However, investors should be aware of some stumbling blocks that could keep volatility elevated in the coming months.

ASML: Backlog Grows as EUV Lithography Gains Traction

ASML posted a solid quarter despite revenue missing analysts’ consensus. Net revenue rose 0.7%, driven by AI-related demand and broader orders from end-market manufacturers, including the DRAM segment. DRAM is important because it includes high-bandwidth memory (HBM) solutions needed for AI and should remain in strong demand over the long term.

Further in the report, margin trends looked healthier, including improved operating quality and leveraged bottom-line results. GAAP EPS rose nearly 7.5% (including the impact of share repurchases), reinforcing the company’s capital-return outlook.

The guidance is constructive but contains a potential headwind. Management expects improving demand for its EUV products and forecasts 2026 revenue to be at least flat versus 2025.

The risk is a slowdown in sales to China, which could weigh on growth. China represents roughly 42% of net sales, and a sustained weakness there could partially offset strength in other markets.

ASML also announced an interim dividend alongside its Q3 report and is on track for a 10th consecutive year of increased payments. Share buybacks are expected to continue and remain meaningful — the company reduced the share count by an average of about 1.5% in Q3.

ASML Analysts and Institutional Trends Are At Odds, Driving Volatility

Part of ASML’s 40% price gain reflects a rapid surge in analysts’ coverage, which has attracted new capital. Data tracked by MarketBeat shows coverage rose 50% over the prior four months to a record high of 21 analysts, providing a firmer support base. The revision trend is a tailwind for the stock, but there is a caveat — institutions.

Institutional interest remains relatively muted. MarketBeat data shows institutions owned only about 26% of the shares, and they sold on balance in Q3 ahead of the report.

The recent price action is encouraging for investors but still reflects underlying risks. Although the market is advancing, resistance at key levels could cap gains until later in the year. Potential catalysts that could lift the stock further include eased geopolitical tensions or improved relations with China, which may not materialize soon.

Elevated trading volume since late 2024, and the MACD converging near its recent highs, are additional technical factors that favor a higher share price.