RJ Hamster
Silver’s squeeze is tightening – opportunity forming
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Dear Investor,
Silver demand has surged across AI, EVs, solar power, and electronics. Meanwhile, supply grew less than 1% this year – extending the market’s deficit to a 4th consecutive year. Inventories are thinning, and institutional interest is rising.
In tightening markets like this, early-stage exploration names often move before the broader sector. One company with major-backed assets and three 100%-owned projects is beginning to show early momentum.
As the squeeze builds, positioning may matter more than timing the headlines.
Just For You
Cleveland-Cliffs Sinks After Earnings—Is the Selloff Overdone?
Authored by Chris Markoch. Posted: 2/10/2026.
Article Highlights
- Cleveland-Cliffs stock was down nearly 19% in intraday trading following its mixed earnings report and soft revenue guidance.
- Management believes 2026 will be a stronger year, driven by tariffs, higher shipments, and asset utilization.
- Investors remain cautious due to limited clarity around the proposed POSCO partnership.
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) reported mixed results the morning after the Super Bowl. The initial market reaction was bearish, but after the sell-off the stock may deserve another look.
Shares of the U.S.-based steelmaker (forgive the play on words) plunged roughly 18.9% in midday trading the day after the report. The results were solid in spots, but weak in others: a better-than-expected earnings loss was offset by revenue that came in below forecasts.
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A roughly 6% revenue miss wasn’t ideal, but it wasn’t unexpected, and management gave investors several tangible reasons to expect a better 2026. Still, with CLF up more than 47% over the prior 12 months, many investors had hoped for stronger guidance.
Setting Up the Opportunity in CLF Stock
The stock now sits near a level that acted as support in October and as resistance about a year ago. That level also aligns with the stock’s 150-day simple moving average (SMA), making it a key support area to watch.
The shares are not officially oversold yet, but selling pushed the stock below its lower Bollinger band — a sign that oversold conditions could develop.
A Lot of “Ifs” to Consider
If Cleveland-Cliffs falls short of management’s 2026 targets, it won’t be for under-promising. Chairman, president and CEO Lourenco Goncalves painted a bullish picture for investors on the earnings call.
The bull case for CLF in 2026 is straightforward. Like other basic materials companies, Cleveland-Cliffs will see the first full year of 50% steel tariffs, which should support demand for domestic steel. That complements the company’s recent transition to having all assets fully operational — a contrast with 2025.
The company also reported gains in market share within its key automotive segment and cited broader improvements in manufacturing conditions, including lower coal prices, as reasons for optimism.
Backing the outlook, Cleveland-Cliffs expects to ship about 16.8 million tons of steel in 2026, roughly a 3% increase from the 16.2 million tons it shipped in 2025. The company reiterated capital expenditures (capex) of about $700 million, in line with recent years.
Where Analysts Needed to Hear More
Despite the broad optimism, Goncalves gave a less definitive update on the company’s strategic partnership with Korean steelmaker POSCO.
Under the proposed agreement, POSCO could take an equity stake in Cleveland-Cliffs.
It wasn’t that the update was negative, but the call produced no concrete new details. That has left some investors wondering whether the agreement — expected to close in the first half of 2026 — is still on track.
Importantly, the company did not tie its initial 2026 outlook to the POSCO investment. The question for investors is whether the company’s baseline outlook — excluding the potential POSCO equity investment — is sufficient to support CLF’s share price going forward.
The Cash Flow Sensitivity Investors May Be Ignoring
One often-overlooked takeaway from Cleveland-Cliffs’ earnings presentation is how sensitive the business is to modest improvements in pricing and utilization. Even small gains in steel prices and capacity use could materially boost the firm’s earnings.
Management emphasized that 2025 results were weighed down by contract pricing lags and underutilized assets — factors that depress near-term revenue but don’t reflect normalized cash-flow potential.
With all facilities now operational and automotive contracts resetting through 2026, incremental volume gains could translate disproportionately into free cash flow as fixed costs are absorbed. That dynamic helps explain why management maintained steady capex guidance while expressing confidence in improving margins.
In short, this quarter’s weakness looks more like a timing issue than a sign of structural demand deterioration. For investors focused solely on the revenue miss, the market may be underestimating how quickly CLF’s earnings power could recover if pricing and shipments move even slightly in the company’s favor.
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