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When silver moves like this, timing can matter more than headlines.

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Just For You

The Last Time Qualcomm’s RSI Did This, the Stock Rallied 70%

Written by Sam Quirke. Date Posted: 1/27/2026. 

Key Takeaways

• Qualcomm has just exited extremely oversold territory, a technical setup that previously marked the start of a major recovery rally.
• The signal is appearing just ahead of earnings, when expectations are about as low as they can be.
• With much of the downside already priced in, the risk-reward balance is tilting toward the bulls.

Shares of tech giant Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) are trading around $155 after a rough two weeks. After a solid start to the year, the stock has fallen roughly 15% as relentless selling raised concerns that Qualcomm may have missed the AI transformation in major enterprise use cases.

That pessimism shows up clearly in the stock’s chart. Last week, Qualcomm’s relative strength index (RSI) dipped below 30, officially entering oversold territory. The rapid bounce back above the key 30 level is notable — it suggests selling may have peaked and buyers are re-entering, and it’s also significant because of what the stock did the last time this occurred.

Why Qualcomm’s RSI Signal Matters Right Now

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The RSI is a popular technical indicator that gives a quick snapshot of recent momentum and helps gauge whether a stock is overbought or oversold. How quickly the RSI recovers after a sharp drop often tells you more than the drop itself because it reflects how the market interprets the move.

The last time Qualcomm’s RSI fell below 30 was in April of last year, and in less than a week it was already back out of the danger zone. That’s essentially the setup we’re seeing now, and investors should consider what the stock could do from here.

History Rhymes: Qualcomm’s RSI Bounce Previously Fueled a Rally

The quick bounce out of extreme oversold levels in April preceded the start of a rally that eventually reached about 70% in Qualcomm shares. It marked a clear inflection point where bearish momentum gave way to sustained accumulation, and we could be looking at a similar turning point now.

Once again, Qualcomm has been aggressively sold as sentiment turned negative, but the fact that the RSI has already popped back above 30 suggests the market has absorbed much of the selling. This reversal is unfolding just days ahead of earnings, which makes the setup more appealing if you believe the sell-off was overdone.

Even After the Downgrade, Qualcomm Still Shows Upside to $175

Much of Qualcomm’s underperformance versus its peers, both last year and in recent weeks, can be tied to concerns that it has been left behind in the AI arms race. While the likes of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) have dominated market share in large-scale AI, Qualcomm’s progress has been quieter and more fragmented.

That view may be too narrow. Qualcomm has been making steady advances in personal AI across IoT, edge computing, and robotics. Those markets are less flashy than large-scale cloud AI, but they are meaningful, scalable and well aligned with Qualcomm’s core strengths. In that context, the current sell-off suggests the market may be discounting those opportunities too heavily.

A recent downgrade from Mizuho to a Neutral rating hasn’t helped sentiment. Still, with Qualcomm trading around $155, its refreshed price target of $175 still implies meaningful upside.

Earnings Could Be the Catalyst That Turns Qualcomm Higher

From a technical perspective, Qualcomm has shown early signs of stabilization. The stock just bounced off support near $154, a level that marked the point where bears ran out of steam in October.

Taken together, the pieces are starting to line up. Qualcomm heads into earnings with sentiment at rock bottom and a fresh technical signal that has historically preceded a sizable recovery. History doesn’t always repeat, but it can rhyme — and Qualcomm’s downside appears much more limited now than it was two weeks ago.

If the company can reassure investors that its longer-term growth story remains intact next week, the post-earnings reaction could skew higher. After a punishing start to the year, this is the kind of setup where confidence, rather than panic, may prove the smarter play.

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