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Friday’s Featured Article

The Last 2 Times Amazon’s RSI Did This, the Stock Rallied 60%

Submitted by Sam Quirke. Published: 2/13/2026. 

Key Points

• Amazon has slid roughly 20% from last year’s all-time high, with the selloff accelerating after last week’s earnings report. 
• The stock’s RSI has now dipped below 30, a rare occurrence that previously preceded big recovery rallies. 
• With analysts still overwhelmingly bullish and price targets ranging north of $300, the risk/reward profile is looking quite attractive.
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Having started the year near $250, tech titan Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) is now trading around $210.

A choppy January turned into a bruising start to February after the company reported a rare earnings miss last week and unveiled a sharply higher capital expenditure forecast that rattled investors.

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The stock gapped down following the report and has shown few signs of reclaiming lost ground. What was meant to be a strong start to the year has instead become investors’ first confidence test of 2026.

The stock is now roughly 20% below its November all-time high, with momentum clearly swinging to the bears.

Yet beneath the surface, something interesting is happening. Because selling has dominated buying, Amazon’s relative strength index (RSI) has sunk below 30, pushing the stock into extremely oversold territory. That doesn’t happen often, but history suggests it’s worth paying attention when it does.

An Interesting Pattern

The last time Amazon’s RSI dipped below 30 and entered extremely oversold territory was in April 2025. The stock went on to rally roughly 60% from that low. Before that, the previous sub-30 reading occurred in the summer of 2024 and was also followed by a powerful rebound of around 60%.

That doesn’t guarantee a repeat this time, but it does suggest a pattern worth watching closely. When sentiment around Amazon becomes this washed out, it has tended to precede significant upside rather than further downside.

Why This Setup Could Rhyme With the Past

As regular readers know, there are multiple reasons to be bullish on Amazon’s prospects beyond this technical setup. For one, the current weakness is not driven by a broken business model so much as by investor anxiety about higher spending.

Investors were spooked not just by the modest earnings miss, but also by the scale of capital expenditure tied to Amazon’s AI ambitions. In a market increasingly sensitive to spending discipline, that headline carried extra weight.

However, the company’s fundamentals remain largely intact. AWS growth, for example, remains solid, and Amazon’s retail business continues to perform. A single earnings miss, especially one measured in single-digit pennies, does not erase that progress.

Analysts Remain Bullish

Just as importantly, analyst support has barely wavered. Since the report, there has been near-unanimous backing of the stock as a Buy, with firms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Argus setting new price targets of $300 or higher. From current levels, that implies more than 40% upside.

That may not quite match the roughly 60% surges seen after prior RSI washouts, but it highlights the opportunity taking shape right now.

What Could Derail the Bounce Thesis

The obvious risk is that this time is different. If capital spending continues to balloon without visible returns, or if broader tech sentiment deteriorates further, oversold conditions alone will not be enough to drive a recovery. A stock can remain oversold longer than investors expect, regardless of solid fundamentals or analyst support.

There is also the technical reality that Amazon’s recent attempts to rally have been underwhelming. While the stock showed signs of being bought off its post-earnings lows on Feb. 6, the following trading days saw little follow-through.

Watching the Ticker

For now, it’s all about how the stock behaves in the short term. With tech stocks in general under pressure, an immediate snapback in Amazon shares may be optimistic. However, if selling pressure eases and buyers step back in, the setup could quickly become interesting for investors.

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This Month’s Bonus Article

3 Major Buybacks Just Dropped—Here’s the Signal Investors See

By Leo Miller. Originally Published: 2/23/2026. 

Key Points

• Walmart, Lyft, and Equitable each announced sizable repurchase authorizations, signaling continued focus on per-share value creation.
• Lyft’s buyback capacity is the most aggressive relative to market cap, while Walmart’s is the largest in absolute dollars.
• Equitable pairs buybacks with a dividend and a rebound narrative, with analysts still forecasting meaningful upside.
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Several major companies recently expanded their share repurchase authorizations, giving them fresh capacity to retire stock in 2026. In a market where buybacks have an outsized effect on per-share results, that firepower can provide a meaningful tailwind—especially when growth is uneven and investors are closely scrutinizing capital allocation.

These announcements come from three very different corners of the market: a consumer staples heavyweight, a beaten-down ride-hailing company, and a financial services firm that oversees more than $1 trillion in assets. The scale varies widely—from sizable to outsized—with one authorization equal to nearly 18% of the company’s market value.

Walmart Announces Biggest Buyback Ever as Shares Climb

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First up is retail behemoth Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT). Walmart delivered an impressive performance in 2025, with a total return of approximately 24%. Even after a pullback following its latest earnings release, the stock remains roughly 10% higher in 2026, benefiting from an early-year rotation into consumer staples.

Walmart continues to demonstrate solid financial momentum, particularly on the e-commerce front. E-commerce sales rose 24% year-over-year (YOY) last quarter and represented a record 23% of revenue. Advertising revenue climbed 37% and membership income rose 15%—meaningful drivers of margin improvement.

To cap its strong year, Walmart authorized a $30 billion share buyback program, its largest to date. The new program is equal to approximately 3.1% of Walmart’s roughly $980 billion market capitalization, giving the company substantial ability to reduce its outstanding share count and provide a tailwind to earnings-per-share growth. Notably, the firm’s shares outstanding fell by about 0.8% in 2025.

Walmart also announced a 5% increase to its quarterly dividend, reinforcing a two-pronged approach to returning capital to shareholders. The stock’s indicated dividend yield now sits near 0.8%.

LYFT Holds +15% Buyback Capacity as Shares Get Hit in 2026

Ride-hailing company LYFT (NASDAQ: LYFT) delivered a very strong 50% return in 2025. But the stock has slumped in 2026, down more than 25% after its latest earnings report triggered a decline of over 20% in two days. Revenue of $1.59 billion—a 3% YOY increase—missed expectations of $1.76 billion.

Still, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) grew 37% to $154 million, comfortably surpassing estimates. The company’s Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $120 million to $140 million, however, was viewed as weak.

LYFT announced a $1 billion share repurchase plan. With a market capitalization of roughly $5.6 billion, this authorization equals about 17.8% of the company’s value. LYFT dramatically increased its buybacks in 2025, spending around $500 million on repurchases—ten times what it spent in 2024.

That activity allowed LYFT’s outstanding share count to fall for the first time over a full year, declining roughly 3.7% in 2025 and supporting per-share metrics. The size of the new authorization suggests that share reductions could continue.

EQH Expects to Rebound in 2026, Announces $1B Buyback

Last is the financial services firm Equitable (NYSE: EQH). Equitable shares returned about 3% in 2025 and are down over 5% so far in 2026. The company offers insurance, annuities and retirement planning, and it manages and administers roughly $1.1 trillion in assets—a figure that rose 10% in 2025.

The shares have struggled recently, with Equitable missing adjusted EPS estimates in five consecutive quarters and missing sales expectations three times during that stretch. After adjusted EPS rose only 1% in 2025, the company expects a stronger performance in 2026, with EPS growth coming in ahead of its long-term target of 12% to 15%.

Affirming that outlook, Equitable announced a $1 billion share buyback program, equal to about 8% of its roughly $12.5 billion market capitalization.

In 2025, Equitable took advantage of weakness in its share price and spent approximately $1.45 billion on buybacks, lowering its outstanding share count by around 9% for the year. The new authorization supports the company’s ability to continue returning sizable amounts of capital. The stock also carries a solid indicated dividend yield near 2.4%.

Analysts Express Confidence in EQH Going Forward

Overall, WMT, LYFT and EQH appear positioned to continue reducing their share counts in 2026. Aligned with its rebound narrative, Equitable shows the most upside potential among these names: the MarketBeat consensus price target of just over $62 implies roughly 41% upside. The consensus price target for LYFT suggests a similar amount of upside, but targets were reduced substantially after its latest report.

Investors should monitor how actively these companies execute their repurchase programs and at what prices—authorization is meaningful, but the impact on per-share results depends on actual buyback activity and timing.

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