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Just For You

From Holding to Hedging: The “Crypto Casino” Trade Is Taking Over

Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 2/3/2026. 

Summary

• Cboe Global Markets offers a unique combination of defensive income through dividends and growth potential via regulated prediction products.
• Coinbase is actively diversifying its revenue streams by expanding into derivatives and prediction markets to ensure long-term sustainability.
• The evolution of the financial landscape favors platforms that capture transaction volume rather than relying solely on asset price appreciation.

In the fast-paced financial markets, a crash is often easier to handle than a flatline. Volatility offers opportunity; stagnation breeds apathy. As of early February 2026, the cryptocurrency market is suffering from a distinct lack of excitement. Bitcoin is hovering around $78,000 after hitting a 10-month low. The explosive rallies that characterized late 2024 and 2025 have evaporated, leaving investors staring at a chart that is chopping sideways and drifting slowly downward.

This lack of action has had tangible financial consequences. Recent data indicates significant capital flight from the bitcoin sector’s primary access points. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $500 million in outflows in the last week alone. Investors are not necessarily leaving the digital-asset economy entirely, but they are tiring of waiting for a breakout that may never come.

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For aggressive strategies, widespread boredom is a real risk. When a store-of-value asset stops appreciating, speculative capital does not sit on the sidelines holding cash — it migrates. Money is rotating out of passive-holding vehicles and into high-velocity speculative markets: from the “vault” to the “casino.” The result is a new sector thesis — more upside for the operators that facilitate bets, and more downside risk for the assets those bets are placed on.

The House Always Wins: From “Hodling” to Hedging

As traders abandon buy-and-hold, they are flocking to platforms that let them bet on specific outcomes and market volatility. Two major companies, Cboe Global Markets (BATS: CBOE) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), are actively positioning to capture this wave of volume. They are building the infrastructure for the next phase of the market: speculation over accumulation.

That matters because the “picks-and-shovels” businesses can benefit from churn and hedging demand even when Bitcoin itself is stuck.

Cboe Global Markets: The Institutional Fortress

Cboe is distinguishing itself as the adult in the room. While unregulated prediction markets have seen billions in volume on offshore chains, Cboe is finalizing plans to reintroduce binary options.

• What Are Binary Options? These are regulated event contracts that allow investors to take all-or-nothing positions. For example, a trader can bet on whether the S&P 500 will close above a certain level.
• Why It Matters: This captures gambling demand while wrapping it in an SEC-compliant package accessible to institutional investors.

This strategy is paying off. Cboe’s stock is trading near all-time highs, around $263, creating a sharp divergence from falling crypto prices. Investors view Cboe as a safer way to play the trend. Cboe offers defensive stability — a dividend yield of approximately 0.73% and Q4 earnings due Feb. 6. Unlike a spot Bitcoin ETF, Cboe pays you to wait.

Coinbase: The Aggressive Pivot

Coinbase is no longer just a digital wallet for holding Bitcoin. The company is transforming into a derivatives powerhouse to offset the decline in spot trading fees. If the “hold” trade is losing followers, Coinbase’s goal is to capture the trading activity that replaces it.

• The Catalyst: The company recently acquired Deribit, a major derivatives exchange, and is integrating prediction markets into its U.S. app.
• The Safety Net: The GENIUS Act, passed in July 2025, provided clearer rules for stablecoins. This ensures that Coinbase’s interest income from stablecoin reserves remains a reliable financial floor.

This steady revenue stream allows Coinbase to take aggressive steps in building out its derivatives business. While Coinbase’s stock is down about 16% year-to-date, trading near $190, the upcoming Q4 earnings report on Feb. 12 will likely highlight this strategic expansion. The company is pivoting from being a bank for crypto to being a casino for speculation.

Don’t Catch the Knife: The Bitcoin Trap

While exchanges pivot to new revenue streams, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) faces a tougher reality. As a spot ETF, IBIT’s performance is strictly tied to the price of Bitcoin. The trust is trading near $47, reflecting roughly a 30% drop in the asset’s value over the past three months and a 10% year-to-date decline. In other words, even if trading activity heats up elsewhere, IBIT only benefits if Bitcoin itself turns higher.

The ETF remains the gold standard for access, boasting net assets of roughly $67 billion and tight trading spreads. However, the current market environment works against it: without rally hype, the store-of-value narrative struggles to attract new money.

The Options Warning

The options market for IBIT signals caution. Trading data indicates a rise in the purchase of put options.

• Put Options: Contracts that give the owner the right to sell an asset at a specific price. Investors buy these when they expect the price to drop.
• The Implication: The rise in puts suggests large investors are hedging rather than adding to their positions.

Buying IBIT now risks catching a falling knife before the price finds a firm floor. Unlike Cboe, IBIT pays no dividend — investors are entirely dependent on price appreciation, which is currently absent.

The Bored Market: Follow the Volume, Not the Price

The cryptocurrency market isn’t dying; it is evolving. The excitement has shifted from the asset itself to the mechanisms of trading. For investors, the most actionable strategy is to follow transaction volume rather than try to time the bottom of the Bitcoin chart. Put simply: in a flat market, the toll booths can outperform the traffic.

How to position a portfolio for this rotation:

• Defensive Growth (Buy CBOE): Cboe Global Markets is the safest play. It provides exposure to the boom in prediction and derivatives markets while paying a quarterly dividend. It helps protect capital while profiting from market activity.
• Aggressive Recovery (Accumulate COIN): Coinbase is a buy for investors with a higher risk tolerance. The stock’s recent dip offers an attractive entry point before the full impact of the Deribit acquisition and prediction market rollout is reflected in earnings.
• Watch and Wait (Hold IBIT): iShares Bitcoin Trust belongs on the watchlist, not the buy list. Investors should wait for boredom to break and for volume to return to the asset before adding to their position.

In a market defined by stagnation, the winners are not the ones holding the silent assets. The winners are the ones running the tables where the action is still happening.

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