RJ Hamster
REVEALED: Something Big Happening Behind White House Doors
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Is BigBear.ai the Next Palantir?
Written by Gabriel Osorio-Mazilli. Published 10/3/2025.
Key Points
- BigBear.ai could follow Palantir’s early growth trajectory, with AI technology in both defense and commercial sectors.
- AI in defense is not a zero-sum game—BigBear can grow alongside Palantir, benefiting from government and enterprise demand.
- BigBear’s institutional shareholders and $380 million backlogs suggest real momentum, not just hype for the stock.
Many investors look at Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) and wish they’d started buying before the broader market recognized its potential, propelling the stock more than 1,800% higher over the last five years.
Pursuing such rapid growth isn’t inherently flawed, though it carries the risk of deeper pullbacks.
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A better approach might be to find a firm in a similar early-stage position—one with robust artificial intelligence capabilities, strong defense-sector ties, and ample room to grow. That’s where BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) comes in.
BigBear operates in the same high-stakes intersection of technology and national defense that fueled Palantir’s rise. However, with a market cap of roughly $2.4 billion—a fraction of Palantir’s $440 billion—BigBear not only limits potential downside but also enjoys a wider gap for future upside as markets factor in its growth trajectory.
BigBear + Palantir: Working Together, Not Against Each Other
AI’s expanding role in the U.S. defense sector is hardly a zero-sum game. Both the Department of Defense (DoD) and civilian agencies are boosting AI adoption, creating room for companies like BigBear to collaborate within the ecosystem rather than compete directly with Palantir.
BigBear isn’t trying to unseat Palantir; it wants to grow alongside it.
Palantir offers products such as Foundry and machine learning segments. BigBear follows a similar intelligence model—collecting and processing data before delivering actionable insights—making it complementary to Palantir’s offerings, albeit on a smaller scale. Moreover, Palantir has expanded beyond defense into civilian industries like logistics, healthcare, and infrastructure, which has fueled bullish sentiment around its untapped market potential.
BigBear mirrors this dual-market approach through its ProModel product line, which serves both defense and commercial clients. Adding to its credibility, the company now has six applications with “awardable” status under DoD consideration for future funding.
BigBear’s Upside: Not Just Smoke and Mirrors
It’s tempting to dismiss BigBear as “the next Palantir,” banking on hype-driven price surges. But its setup rests on concrete fundamentals.
For starters, the company’s Q2 earnings results revealed an order backlog of $380 million. While backlog isn’t guaranteed revenue, it signals strong demand for BigBear’s solutions—a pipeline that should convert into future sales as government and commercial clients adopt these technologies.
CEO Kevin McAleenan noted that proposed U.S. budgets include $170 billion for the Department of Homeland Security and $150 billion for the DoD—areas he says are “directly in our lane” for mission-ready artificial intelligence services.
Institutional investors are already taking note: Geode Capital Management owns $34.5 million worth of BBAI and JPMorgan Chase holds a $16.3 million position (institutional ownership).
A Ground-Floor Opportunity with Long-Term Potential
At just $2.4 billion, BigBear has carved out early credibility in AI-driven intelligence with initial wins in defense and logistics. Its lean size also offers significant upside as demand for AI accelerates.
If Palantir’s trajectory is any guide, BigBear could be poised for a multi-year growth run as government and enterprise spending on AI continues to climb.
Rather than pigeonholing BigBear as the “next Palantir,” investors should view it as a solid business operating in a rapidly expanding sector—backed by real contracts, proven products, and tangible momentum.
For those aiming to get ahead of the next wave of AI-driven defense and commercial opportunities, BigBear.ai warrants a closer look.
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