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Just For You

Rocket Lab Gets a Big Upgrade: Will Upside Follow?

By Ryan Hasson. Originally Published: 1/20/2026. 

Summary

• Morgan Stanley just turned bullish on Rocket Lab, upgrading the stock to Overweight from Equalweight and raising its price target to a Street-high $105.
• Neutron and Electron remain key catalysts, with a potential Neutron debut in early 2026 and rising launch cadence supporting the long-term growth narrative amid strong space and defense tailwinds.
• Short-term risk is elevated, as RKLB is overbought after a parabolic run, making pullbacks and consolidation more attractive entry points than chasing strength.

Shares of Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) received another major vote of confidence this month when Morgan Stanley significantly upgraded both its rating and price target on the stock. On Jan. 16, 2026, the firm moved its rating from Equal Weight to Overweight and raised its price target from $67 to a Street-high $105.

The timing of the upgrade is notable. Rocket Lab is trading at all-time highs, closing the Jan. 16 session at $96.30. That pushed the stock’s year-to-date gain to 38%, while its one-year return now stands at an eye-catching 287%. With shares already deep into a parabolic run, Morgan Stanley’s bullish call raises a key question for investors: Is there meaningful upside left in the near term, or has the market already priced it in?

Morgan Stanley Turns Bullish on Space and Rocket Lab

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Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag framed the upgrade within a broader, optimistic outlook for the space technology sector in 2026. The firm has adopted what it calls an “Attractive” view on space tech, arguing that many of the drivers behind last year’s outperformance remain intact.

That assessment aligns with what MarketBeat has previously noted about Rocket Lab and the wider sector.

“2025 was a banner year for the space industry on several fronts,” Liwag wrote, adding that higher launch cadences, new product rollouts, and policy support should continue to fuel growth in 2026.

For Rocket Lab specifically, Morgan Stanley highlighted two primary catalysts: expectations for the company’s first Neutron rocket launch in early 2026, and continued increases in launch cadence for its Electron rocket.

Neutron, in particular, represents a potential step change for Rocket Lab — enabling larger payloads, higher-margin missions, and greater exposure to defense and national security contracts.

Why the Bull Case Still Has Legs

Despite the stock’s sharp run, Rocket Lab continues to benefit from several structural tailwinds. The company recently secured an $816 million multi-year contract, reinforcing its growing role in government and defense-related space infrastructure. At the same time, global investment in space and defense capabilities remains elevated, driven by geopolitical tensions and national security priorities that are accelerating government spending.

There’s also a sentiment tailwind. Speculation around a potential SpaceX IPO has shone a spotlight on the broader space ecosystem, often lifting publicly traded peers like Rocket Lab along with it.

That said, Wall Street remains divided. RKLB currently carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 16 analyst opinions, with an average price target near $64 — well below current levels. A successful Neutron debut, however, could prompt analysts to materially reassess revenue potential and valuation, potentially triggering a broader re-rating.

Is RKLB a Buy at These Levels?

While the long-term story remains compelling, the near-term technical picture suggests caution. Rocket Lab appears overbought, with momentum indicators such as the RSI stretched after the rapid ascent.

For investors who bought shares at lower levels, the trends support continuing to hold. For new investors, patience may be warranted: a pullback toward key short- and mid-term moving averages, followed by consolidation and base-building, would offer a more attractive risk-reward entry.

In short, Morgan Stanley’s upgrade reinforces Rocket Lab’s long-term potential, but after a near-vertical rally the next high-probability entry is more likely to come on a pause than on a chase.

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