Okay look, everyone’s all worked up about geopolitical stuff and Fed rate cuts this weekend.
I’m going to tell you right now – nobody cares about Fed anymore. Powell’s been sidelined. He is out of the game, ejected if you will.
Meanwhile there’s something way more important happening that nobody’s paying attention to.
We’ve been trapped in the exact same range for what, seven weeks now? Seven weeks! And we’re compressed into like a 100 point range at this point.
Here’s the thing – the longer you’re in a box like this, the more risk builds. That’s just the bottom line. When we come out of this range there’s going to be some violence in the trade.
But what’s really got my attention right now…
VIX is down 6% today and everybody thinks oh volatility is calm. Stop that crap.
VVIX – that’s the volatility of VIX itself – is near 110. That’s my critical threshold okay. What does 110 mean?
Duck and cover.
Professional traders are gobbling up VIX options like crazy. Why? That’s hedging activity. Smart money sees what’s coming.
And get this – while everyone’s obsessing over geopolitical noise, the monsters of tech are getting hammered.
Meta’s down over 2%. Google’s getting absolutely hammered. Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia – all seeing sellside activity.
The monsters of tech are down 1.3% while NASDAQ’s only down 0.4%. When you start looking at this chart you’re like “Holy crap that actually stands out.”
Look, I got that same feeling like I don’t want to go home long nothing. But this panic paralysis that’s gripped the marketplace?
That might be coming to an end.
The setup I’m tracking has everything to do with this tech rotation and what VIX is telling us, but there’s one critical thing most people aren’t watching…
Because when this range breaks – and VIX is screaming it’s about to – you better have your big boy pants on.
To your success,
Don Kaufman
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