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Oil Set to Rebound? 3 Stocks That Win if Crude Climbs

Written by Chris Markoch on October 2, 2025

So far, much of the inflation discussion has focused on tariffs and trade policies. However, the price of oil is a more obvious sign that inflation may be moving higher.

Through September, crude oil prices are down about 12% for the year. But there are factors that could create a bullish setup for crude oil in the next three to six months.

For starters, the OPEC+ nations have announced they will stick with their production cuts, which could become significant as the United States enters a period of seasonal refinery demand. Add to that, a recent surprise shortfall in U.S. crude inventory raised the risk premium if there is a supply disruption.

Also, despite the Trump administration’s willingness to allow oil companies to drill at will, crude oil in the $60-per-barrel range makes drilling less attractive. Should oil demand increase, that could leave the market undersupplied. That demand could come from more commercial activity spurred by lower interest rates.

Of course, rising oil prices aren’t a sure thing in the short term. That’s why investors should look at three oil stocks that offer growth in a bull case scenario, but present good value regardless of where oil prices go.

Exxon Mobil: Reliable Dividends and Permian Scale

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has been trading in a defined range since the beginning of 2024, which has made it attractive as a value stock.

That’s not a bad reason to own it. XOM stock has an attractive dividend yield of around 3.5% and the company has increased that dividend for 42 consecutive years.

Exxon also issued $5 billion in share buybacks in its most recent quarter, showing its commitment to capital discipline.

Operationally, the integrated oil giant is a leading producer in the Permian Basin, one of the world’s most productive oil fields. That scale gives Exxon the ability to protect its margins even when oil prices dip below $60—as they’ve been for much of 2025.

If prices rise towards $80 or higher, that earnings growth would allow Exxon’s free cash flow to accelerate quickly, creating upside for both income-oriented and growth-minded investors.

Chevron: Diversification Through LNG and Guyana Assets

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) shares many of the same strengths as Exxon, including deep Permian Basin exposure. That footprint got even larger after the company’s merger with Hess, which added key assets in Guyana’s offshore fields. Those projects are expected to deliver low-cost barrels for decades.

Where Chevron may stand out for investors is its significant exposure to international LNG operations in Australia, which supply millions of tons of LNG annually. This will provide long-term, stable cash flows, especially as Asian markets shift from coal to cleaner-burning natural gas.

On the shareholder return side, CVX stock pays a 4.4% dividend and has grown its payout for 38 consecutive years, making it a staple among dividend investors.

The company also carries a relatively clean balance sheet compared to some of its peers. With crude oil prices under pressure in 2025, Chevron has leaned on its diversified portfolio to protect cash flow. If prices firm up, investors could see meaningful upside in both total return and dividend safety.

SLB: A High-Beta Bet on Oilfield Spending

Unlike Exxon and Chevron, SLB (NYSE: SLB) doesn’t drill for oil itself, but it provides the technology and services that make drilling possible. That makes SLB (formerly Schlumberger) more of a leveraged play on rising oil prices.

When crude prices move higher, exploration and production companies typically boost their spending—and, as the world’s leading oilfield services provider, SLB benefits directly from that capital cycle.

The company has exposure across North America, the Middle East, and offshore markets. Its integrated model spans drilling, completions, and digital solutions, allowing it to capture value across the upstream sector.

If crude oil trends toward $90–$100 in the months ahead, SLB could see a surge in demand for its services, positioning it for faster earnings growth than the integrated majors. This anticipated demand is reflected in analysts’ consensus stock price of $52.18, nearly 52% higher than where SLB currently trades. That’s attractive growth to go with an attractive 3.35% dividend yield.

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