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Director of Research, Stansberry Research

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More Reading from MarketBeat

What to Watch for in Meta’s Earnings: 2026 CapEx and AI Updates

Submitted by Leo Miller. Published: 1/26/2026. 

Quick Look

• Shares of Meta Platforms have struggled since its last earnings report in October 2025.
• The company’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance will be among the most-watched metrics in its Jan. 28 release.
• Analysts continue to see considerable upside in shares despite investor trepidation.

In Q3 2025, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) reported earnings that disappointed investors, sending shares down more than 11%. With the next report approaching, the Magnificent Seven company is under close scrutiny.

Meta will report on Jan. 28 after the market closes. While investors will focus on Q4 2025 results, the stock’s near-term move will likely depend on what Meta says about 2026. Here are the key factors that will shape its outlook.

Analysts Project +20% Revenue Growth, Minimal EPS Increase

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At a high level, investors will want Meta to meet or beat analyst expectations for revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS). Analysts expect revenue of $58.3 billion, roughly 20%–21% growth, and adjusted EPS of $8.16, about 2% growth. In the last two quarters Meta grew faster than these rates on both metrics.

Meta is also expected to provide revenue guidance for Q1 2026. The company typically does not give full-year growth guidance. Analysts are projecting $51.3 billion in sales next quarter, or about 21% growth. Because revenue usually peaks in Q4 with holiday ad spending, a steep decline from Q4 to Q1 would be normal.

The growth rates for ad impressions and price paid per ad are two key performance indicators for its advertising business. Growth of around 10% (or slightly higher) would be in line with recent trends.

Expense Guidance Will Be Top of Mind

The most important figure investors will watch is likely Meta’s capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance for 2026. In Q3 the company signaled it planned a very large increase in spending for 2026.

When Meta initially guided $71 billion in CapEx for 2025, its comments suggested that the figure could rise well above $100 billion in 2026. That suggestion alarmed markets, with many questioning whether previous AI investments justified such a jump.

Analysts expect Meta to provide a concrete CapEx range. If that range comes in higher than market participants anticipate, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in the stock.

It remains uncertain whether guidance will exceed expectations. The company has used aggressive rhetoric about its AI ambitions, including the Meta Compute announcement, which outlined plans to build tens of gigawatts of data-center capacity this decade. Meta has also signed new energy deals since the last report, totaling 6.6 GW of capacity.

Those factors suggest CapEx guidance could significantly exceed expectations. Investors may take some comfort, however, because Meta shares have fallen more than 13% since the last earnings report, which could limit further downside.

Total expense guidance (excluding CapEx) will also be important. The range will indicate how hiring more AI-focused talent and other investments are affecting Meta’s overall cost structure.

CTO Touts New AI Models as Analysts Eye ~27% Upside

Beyond the numbers, investors will want an update on Meta’s AI development. On Jan. 21 at the World Economic Forum, Meta’s chief technology officer, Andrew Bosworth, described the new AI models the company is using internally as “very good.” 

Although Bosworth didn’t name them, sources indicate Meta is working on two models codenamed Avocado and Mango. Positive commentary about these developmental models could lift sentiment, especially since the firm’s LLaMA models have generally failed to impress the market.

Despite the recent share-price weakness, Wall Street analysts remain largely confident. The consensus price target sits near $822, implying roughly 27% upside.

Meta is playing the long game with AI. Regardless of the market’s short-term reaction to the next earnings report, investors will need to decide for themselves whether the company remains a compelling long-term investment.

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