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This Week’s Bonus Story

Qualcomm Is Back at 2020 Levels—Warning or Opportunity?

Written by Sam Quirke. Publication Date: 2/5/2026. 

Summary

• Qualcomm has erased all gains from the past two years after a brutal pre- and post-earnings selloff.
• Structural issues in handsets and weakening confidence make this a clear warning sign for long-term investors.
• However, extremely oversold conditions could still create short-term trading opportunities amid elevated volatility.

After reporting disappointing earnings on Feb. 4 after the market close, Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) left investors wondering what is going wrong. The stock is now trading below $140, down from about $185 just a month ago. That represents a steep slide over a very short period, capped by a sharp post-earnings drop on Thursday morning.

Most notably, Qualcomm has given up the gains it built over the past two years and has returned to roughly the same levels it traded at in 2020 — a sobering position for a company that has repeatedly pitched itself as a semiconductor company well-positioned for the AI revolution.

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Already on shaky ground entering earnings, Qualcomm did little to restore investor confidence with its Q1 report. (Qualcomm’s fiscal year runs ahead of the calendar year.) While the headline numbers avoided disaster, management’s bearish forward guidance was enough to trigger a fresh collapse in sentiment. Still, could there be an opportunity for risk-tolerant investors? Or was the guidance a warning too clear to ignore? Let’s take a look.

Why This Is a Warning Sign for Long-Term Investors

The core issue is what the latest report reveals about Qualcomm’s structural challenges. Management pointed to ongoing industry pressures tied to memory supply constraints and softness in handset demand. While these factors are not unique to Qualcomm, they matter more here because the company remains heavily exposed to the smartphone market despite efforts to diversify. Automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), and licensing are frequently highlighted as growth areas, but they have yet to offset weakness in the core business when conditions deteriorate.

This matters because Qualcomm has a track record of struggling to sustain rallies. Each time optimism builds around a rebound or the diversification narrative, the stock has tended to roll over — and this latest selloff fits that pattern. The market is right to question once again whether Qualcomm can deliver durable growth rather than periodic recoveries.

Analyst sentiment has shifted noticeably. Several firms have reacted to earnings by reiterating or downgrading to neutral, and some commentary has turned overtly bearish — HSBC said it could be “difficult to forecast a potential bottom.”

The net effect is a loss of credibility. Long-term investors who have stayed through multiple cycles are now looking at a stock that has essentially gone nowhere over the past half-decade, despite repeated promises of transformation. From that perspective, this earnings report reads more like a warning than a reset.

Where Traders Might See a Short-Term Opportunity

That said, while the long-term picture looks damaged, the short-term setup could tell a different story. The speed and magnitude of the selloff have pushed Qualcomm into extremely oversold territory, and momentum indicators are flashing readings rarely seen over the past decade. That doesn’t guarantee a full rebound, but it does increase the probability of a sharp bounce once selling pressure begins to exhaust itself.

There are early signs of that dynamic. After opening sharply lower the day after earnings, the stock showed signs of support by the afternoon. It will be important to watch whether that support holds.

Even among analysts who’ve turned cautious, many of the revised price targets remain well above the current share price. Bank of America, for example, has a $155 target and Cantor Fitzgerald $160; Rosenblatt reiterated its Buy rating and kept a $190 target.

Whether those views prove correct over the next year is debatable, but in the near term they suggest pessimism may be overextended.

How to Think About the Setup

The key is to separate investing from trading. For long-term investors, this report raises uncomfortable questions. Until Qualcomm demonstrates it can sustain revenue growth and hold gains, patience and caution are warranted.

For short-term traders, the picture is different. Extreme oversold conditions, violent moves, and heavy pessimism create an environment where relief rallies can be sharp and profitable — if risk is managed tightly.

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