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Today’s Bonus Content

Gold to $5,000? What Bank of America and UBS Have to Say

By Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 11/29/2025. 

Summary

• Bank of America and UBS are forecasting a continued bull market for gold driven by supportive macroeconomic policies and persistent fiscal pressure.
• Global central banks continue to purchase precious metals at a historic pace to diversify their reserves and provide a strong floor for the broader market.
• The SPDR Gold Shares ETF offers investors a highly liquid, cost-effective way to gain direct exposure to the potential upside of the gold market.

Gold has taken a breather. After a strong run that pushed the metal past $4,500 per ounce in mid-October, the market has entered a consolidation phase, trading in a relatively tight range around $4,150. That cooling period leaves investors with a key question: was that the cycle peak, or a pause before the next leg up?

Bank of America’s new Year Ahead outlook favors the latter. The bank’s strategists contend the gold sector is in a unique — and potentially profitable — position. While the recent price action looks technically extended after the rapid ascent in 2025, the asset class remains structurally underinvested.

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That distinction matters: prices have risen, but the broader investment community has not fully crowded into the trade. Significant capital remains on the sidelines, waiting for an entry point. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) argues the macro backdrop that helped fuel the rally — including concerns about fiscal policy and currency stability — remains intact. Strong fundamentals combined with sidelined capital, the bank says, create room for further upside.

Bank of America’s Path to $5,000

Bank of America strategists, led by Michael Widmer, project gold could hit $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with an expected average of $4,538 for the year. This aggressive forecast is driven by unconventional U.S. fiscal policies — notably growing government deficits and rising national debt — which they say will erode the dollar’s purchasing power and push investors toward hard assets. While a hawkish Federal Reserve poses a risk, BofA views fiscal pressure as the more persistent force supporting gold.

A Growing Consensus for Gold

Several major banks, including Bank of America and UBS (NYSE: UBS), now forecast a continued bull market for gold, lending weight to the thesis. UBS recently raised its upside forecast to $4,900 per ounce by Q2 2026, citing ongoing political and financial risks that are driving demand for safe havens. Together, these forecasts create a ladder of potential outcomes tied to the severity of economic debasement.

• 2026 Average Projection (BofA): $4,538 per ounce
• Upside Case Q2 2026 (UBS): $4,900 per ounce
• Peak Target 2026 (BofA): $5,000 per ounce
• Long-Term Debasement Model (BofA):$6,000 per ounce

Those targets suggest $5,000 is not viewed as an unattainable ceiling but as the next logical milestone in a multi-year trend.

Why Gold Has a Safety Net

Despite lofty targets, several factors help mitigate downside risk. Central bank demand and supply constraints create a substantial floor under prices. Société Générale reports that China’s actual gold purchases may be more than ten times official figures, potentially exceeding 5,000 tons. That unreported demand removes physical metal from the market and supports prices.

Bank of America also highlights a broad scarcity across precious metals, forecasting silver to average $60 per ounce in 2026 due to supply deficits. The bull market, therefore, appears driven by physical scarcity across the complex as much as by financial speculation.

How to Invest in the Rally

For investors looking to position for a potential move toward $5,000, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD) remains a primary vehicle for efficient exposure.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is the largest physically backed gold exchange-traded fund in the world, with over $138 billion in assets under management.

Its scale provides high liquidity — an average daily volume of more than 12 million shares — making it easy for investors to enter and exit positions in a volatile market.

The fund has delivered strong performance: year-to-date, GLD is up roughly 57%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. Over five years, the fund has returned around 124%, demonstrating its value as a long-term compounding asset. With a net expense ratio of 0.40%, GLD offers a cost-effective way to track the metal’s price without the premiums and storage fees of physical bullion.

Recent market signals may also offer a contrarian buy case. Short interest in GLD has risen to 14.13 million shares. In a rising market, elevated short interest can add fuel to a rally: if prices move sharply higher, short sellers may be forced to cover, potentially accelerating gains via a short squeeze.

Despite consolidation, institutional investors remain committed. Institutional ownership in GLDsits above 42%, and over the past 12 months the fund has seen net institutional inflows of $24.84 billion, indicating large managers are using pullbacks to accumulate rather than exit.

With GLD trading near $380, the current consolidation may represent a strategic entry point. If gold approaches Bank of America’s $5,000 target, GLD would broadly track that performance, providing a simplified way to capture upside without holding physical bars.

Positioning for the Next Leg Up

The gold market has paused, but the story is far from over. The macro drivers that pushed the metal to record highs in 2025 — notably the fiscal dynamics highlighted by Bank of America — remain structural.

With major banks laying out a credible path to $5,000 and strong institutional support providing a floor, the current consolidation presents a compelling risk-to-reward profile. For investors who can look past short-term noise, 2026 may offer another opportunity for significant gains in the yellow metal.

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