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CrowdStrike’s Floor Test After Fortinet’s Upgrade: What Comes Next?
Written by Chris Markoch. Posted: 2/2/2026.
In Brief
- Fortinet’s bullish analyst upgrade lifted the cybersecurity sector and may signal a valuation floor for CRWD stock.
- Despite AI-related concerns such as “vibe coding,” CrowdStrike’s strong ARR growth suggests that demand for cybersecurity remains durable.
- With shares near key support ahead of earnings, CRWD stock could be approaching an inflection point for investors.
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) stock has declined nearly 8% year-to-date amid broader market pressures. The general slump in technology stocks has hit software names particularly hard, including several of the top cybersecurity companies.
Analyst sentiment, however, suggests CRWD may be finding a floor ahead of its March earnings report. That view got traction on Jan. 23 when Fortinet Inc. (NASDAQ: FTNT)received a bullish upgrade from TD Cowen. The firm raised its rating on FTNT to Buy from Hold and set a $100 target.
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FTNT shares rallied after the upgrade, lifting the sector — including CrowdStrike. That sector momentum heading into earnings season could provide support for CRWD and suggests the broader cybersecurity group may be undervalued. If so, CRWD could offer an attractive entry point for investors.
Is AI Really a Threat to Cybersecurity?
Beyond valuation concerns, cybersecurity stocks like CRWD have been pressured by worries about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on software businesses.
One specific worry is so-called “vibe coding,” where developers use tools such as Cursor or GitHub Copilot for rapid prototyping. The fear is that AI could automate routine coding, reducing the number of billable seats and, in turn, demand for some endpoint solutions.
Not all software categories are equally exposed. Cybersecurity products must meet strict industry requirements. Standards such as NIST 800-53, SOC 2 and zero-trust frameworks require audited, deterministic controls — not probabilistic AI outputs that can hallucinate.
It’s also premature to conclude AI will necessarily shrink the addressable market for security vendors. Historically, major technology shifts have eliminated some roles while creating new ones.
For example, Y2K compliance helped spawn a large services industry, and subsequent cloud migrations expanded endpoint security layers. A similar dynamic is expected with AI. In its most recent quarter, CrowdStrike reported $265 million in net new annual recurring revenue (ARR), a 73% year-over-year increase — initial evidence that AI may be amplifying, not eroding, CrowdStrike’s revenue base.
What Analysts Are Thinking, But Not Saying
Analysts are aware of these dynamics, but cybersecurity stocks trade at lofty multiples. At roughly 29x forward sales, CrowdStrike’s valuation appears rich. Still, the Falcon platform’s strong retention and stickiness can justify a premium when threats evolve quickly.
Right now, much of the recent CRWD weakness looks like a shakeout of loose hands more than a structural warning about the business.
That doesn’t mean investors should buy indiscriminately. CRWD doesn’t report earningsuntil March 3, and a lot can change between now and then.
If CrowdStrike’s upcoming results demonstrate that broader software concerns don’t materially affect its growth, the stock could be set up for a sizeable rally.
CRWD Stock at an Inflection Point
Before the recent sell-off, CRWD appeared to be breaking out of a bearish pattern that had been in place since November 2025. The stock has since slipped below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), a level that acted as resistance on two occasions in 2025.
Key support aligns with prior lows around $413; a break below that could put the psychologically important $400 level in play.
The stock is showing oversold signs, but a cautious approach before earnings still seems prudent. By then, investors should have clearer visibility on how AI will affect CrowdStrike’s future revenue and margins.
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