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Is This Dividend Aristocrat’s Payout in Jeopardy?
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Is This Dividend Aristocrat’s Payout in Jeopardy?
Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club
Target (NYSE: TGT) shares are near their lowest price in about six years. That’s resulted in an attractive 5% dividend yield.
But can investors rely on the hefty yield while they wait for the stock price to recover?
In fiscal 2024, which ended in February, free cash flow actually increased due to a sharp reduction in capital expenditures (or “capex”) despite declining revenue and profits.
Cash flow from operations fell from $8.6 billion to $7.4 billion in fiscal 2024, but a 40% cut in capex boosted free cash flow by 17% from $3.8 billion to $4.5 billion.
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In fiscal 2025, which ends this coming February, capex is forecast to rise by more than $1 billion, which will reduce free cash flow to $2.5 billion.
In fiscal 2024, Target paid $2 billion in dividends for a very comfortable payout ratio of 46%. This year, the retail giant is forecast to pay a little over $2.1 billion. With drastically falling free cash flow, the payout ratio jumps to an uncomfortable 87%.View larger image
However, Target has an incredible dividend-paying history. It has raised its dividend every year since 1972. I was still watching Sesame Street back then.
Since the company is a member of the S&P 500 and has raised its dividend for more than 25 years in a row, it is considered a Dividend Aristocrat, which is a prestigious label that attracts income investors.
Target’s numbers are all going in the wrong direction… but a more than 50-year streak of raising the dividend is nothing to scoff at.
Can it keep the streak alive?Safety Net Says…
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