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When you hear the name “Paul Skenes” and the word “underrated” thrown together, your natural reaction is probably to scoff, roll your eyes or both. We get it.
But when our Mike Petriello makes that case in his Skenes breakdown today, it’s best to hear him out, because you know he is bringing the evidence to back up that logical leap. And the evidence boils down to this: As hyped and accomplished as Skenes has been since back in his college days — and remember, he’s started the All-Star Game in both of his big league seasons — that still doesn’t match his actual results thus far. Because those results are historically, almost impossibly, great.
When Skenes takes the ball tonight against the Reds at PNC Park (6:40 p.m. ET, FREE on MLB.TV), he will do so with a 1.99 career ERA. As Petriello puts it:
If you’re wondering if that’s a notable mark over the last century-plus of baseball, it’s merely the best anyone’s done in their first 46 starts since the start of the Live Ball Era in 1920. He’s the only starter in the last 105 years to kick off a career like this with an ERA under 2.00.
Closest to Skenes on that list is Vida Blue (2.03), with names such as Dwight Gooden (2.27), Orel Hershiser (2.31) and José Fernández (2.39) also making an appearance.
Petriello goes deeper, too, and even more advanced tools than raw ERA tell basically the same story. Just about zero pitchers in modern baseball history have been this good, this early in their careers.
One thing helping to obscure that fact, especially in 2025? It’s a 49-66 Pittsburgh team that isn’t providing Skenes with much support. Skenes carries a 6-8 record into tonight’s start, the same as the Cardinals’ Andre Pallante (4.57), the Angels’ Kyle Hendricks (4.59 ERA) and the Red Sox’s Dustin May (4.93). Just look at how Skenes’ season breaks down, in terms of opponent slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) by pitcher decision:
Wins (6): .153/.189/.226
Losses (8): .196/.254/.341
No-decisions (9): .204/.284/.293
Only two qualified Major League hitters have a lower OPS this season than the .595 mark Skenes has posted in games in which he has been charged with a loss. It’s mind-boggling stuff, but it shouldn’t obscure the fact that every time the NL Cy Young Award favorite steps on the mound, he’s making history.
— Andrew Simon
DON’T OVERLOOK SCHWARBER
You’ve probably noticed by now that Kyle Schwarber is on a serious heater. The 32-year-old slugger has unleashed 18 Schwarbombs in his past 40 games, helping to vault the Phillies past the Mets into first place in the division. He was MVP of the All-Star Game after winning the first swing-off a few weeks back. And most recently, Schwarber has taken over the top spot in the illustrious MLB.com Hitter Power Rankings for the first time this season, cementing himself as the most fearsome batter in the sport right now.
Might Schwarber’s next achievement be winning his first MVP Award? Perhaps we shouldn’t be hasty – he’s never finished higher than 15th in the voting despite posting 38 homers or more four times prior. The Phillies thumper doesn’t pitch like 3-time MVP Shohei Ohtani – who is also posting his usual tremendous season at the plate. Nor does he offer the game-changing defense or baserunning dynamism of Cubs supernova Pete Crow-Armstrong.
But Schwarber is, by far, having his best season, with his highest OPS (.965), OPS+ (160) and WAR (3.9 per Baseball-Reference). With 40 homers already, he’s almost certainly going to surpass his career high of 47 and finish somewhere north of 50. And it’s not like a mostly straight-up DH can’t win MVP; Ohtani showed that last season.
Given the inherent advantages for Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong, Schwarber would probably have to keep up his blistering pace over the past five weeks and push his squad to the NL East title – and that still might not be enough. Regardless of how it works out, with the Phillies all-in on a deep October run, it’s safe to say Schwarber’s eyes are on a much bigger prize.
— Bryan Horowitz
1,076 DAYS LATER …
When Cade Cavalli took the hill at Nationals Park on Wednesday, the right-hander received a standing ovation from the home crowd — and not just because they were happy to see the team’s No. 6 prospect make his season debut.
Many in attendance were well aware of the long road Cavalli had taken to get back to that mound — the numerous injuries, the rehab programs and the Minor League outings he’d endured since making his Major League debut there 1,076 days before.
The 26-year-old right-hander responded with 4 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out six with an impressive arsenal that included a fastball that topped out at 100.1 mph.
“It’s been a long almost-three years now,” Cavalli said after the Nationals’ 2-1 walk-off win. “It was just great being on that mound again. There’s been a lot of leadup to it. I pictured that day a lot, and I’m just glad it was finally here and that we were able to get a win.”
For a much deeper dive into Cavalli’s inspiring comeback, check out Jessica Camerato’s excellent feature here.
— Ed Eagle
SORRY, MOON MAMMOTHS IS TAKEN
This Minor League team renaming won’t involve any late-night television hosts, but it is giving you a chance to see if you’re as clever as a late-night television host.
And that’s where you come in. Fans can submit their ideas on the team’s website, and the submissions will be narrowed down to a final list before the official unveiling in the fall of 2026.
This same process previously resulted in the Double-A Binghamton Mets becoming the Binghamton Rumble Ponies, an objectively awesome name and visible proof of the connection to community and the creativity of baseball fans. So put your thinking caps on and get to work!
If you’re not a subscriber, how else can you watch the Max Scherzer-Clayton Kershaw matchup at Dodger Stadium tomorrow night? The Mets-Brewers series this weekend in Milwaukee will have ramifications in the NL East and Central. Plus, sitting second in their respective divisions, the Red Sox and Padres face off in a big set, and the series opener on Friday is the MLB.TV Free Game of the Day.
Don’t be left out and sign up to take advantage of all the savings before the clock strikes midnight.