Wall Street hit the brakes after a powerful rally pushed stocks just shy of all-time highs, as concerns over a market running too hot began to set in.
Treasuries, which had been on a tear, also lost momentum following a weak 30-year bond auction that revealed some fatigue among buyers.
The S&P 500, after soaring nearly 30% since April, barely budged by the close. Chipmakers caught a bid, but Intel dropped 3% after Donald Trump publicly urged its CEO to resign over alleged conflicts of interest.
Thursday’s $25 billion Treasury sale capped a rough week for bond auctions, with earlier sales of three- and ten-year notes also underwhelming. Long-dated yields gave back gains, leaving the 30-year stuck around 4.83%, while 10-year yields ticked up to 4.25%. The dollar was flat.
Why is it such a big deal?
If the demand for the Treasuries is weak, it will force the yields to rise in order to entice demand. Higher yields generally drag down asset prices.
Now with equities flirting with record highs, some big players are sounding the alarm.
Valuations are stretched, and historically weak months like August and September are right around the corner. According to Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, markets are entering a phase where “headline risk” could trigger sudden pullbacks.
Is the labor market cracking? Wall Street didn’t get relief for its anxiety about the labor market. Continuing jobless claims hit their highest level since November 2021, pointing to growing cracks in the labor market.
Not only that, the Fed’s New York branch reported rising inflation expectations, but views on job prospects improved.
Despite the recent data on the job market, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic still sees one rate cut this year, but flagged concerns that inflation from tariffs might stick around longer than hoped.
Regardless. UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi sees the effective US tariff rate settling near 15%, which may be enough to slow growth and heat up inflation, but not enough to derail the rally.
UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi (Photo: DLD)
Her advice? Expect bumps, but stay the course.
Her sentiment reflects Wall Street’s general sentiment where investors are not ready to panic. Dip buying has proven to be a profitable strategy. Time will tell if it will continue to do so.
A Book Value Play For a Tough Market Like Nowadays
Today’s Stock Pick: The Marcus Corporation (MCS)
The Marcus Corporation owns movie theaters and operates hotel properties.
Wait a minute… movie theaters?!
Well, the movie business is not the same as its glory years, of course. However, the company owns 62% of real estate that its movie theatres are built on.
So, it provides a strong credit support and can be monetized if opportunities arise.
(Source: The Marcus Corporation)
For example, it generated $36 million of asset sales proceeds in fiscal 2001-2024.
Right now, they have 78 movie theatre locations and 7 company-owned properties and 9 managed properties for other owners for the Marcus Hotels & Resorts segment.
(Source: The Marcus Corporation)
Now, the movie theatre attendance will never go back to its peak. 2024 saw a box office recovery of 76.4% versus 2019. The first quarter had about 66% of the 2019 level. However, the company had delivered solid results, despite the decline.
(Source: The Marcus Corporation)
Now, let’s turn to its hotels and resorts division. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. Clearly, things are turning up for both divisions of The Marcus Corporation.
Here’s the main investment thesis for The Marcus Corporation: It used to be an incredible dividend stock. Its annual cash dividends grew 12.8% CAGR from 2014 through 2019.
The company had to cut dividends during the pandemic, and it has been raising dividends steadily.
Right now, it is yielding 2.12%.
(Source: The Marcus Corporation)
Bottom line: The Marcus Corporation looks like a good dividend play for long-term holders. Its book value per share is $14.32 while the current stock price is $15.10. So, the risk could be the “floor” which is its book value per share. The stock may have a good risk/reward ratio for investors who are looking for a safe place to invest in.