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This Month’s Bonus Content

With New CEOs, Is Walmart or Target the Better Buy Going Forward?

Submitted by Jordan Chussler. Published: 2/5/2026. 

Article Highlights

• Consumer staples have been the third-best performing sector so far in 2026. 
• After 12 years at the helm, Doug McMillon has retired, with John Furner taking over as CEO of Walmart in the wake of the company’s stock gaining more than 28%.
• Michael Fiddelke takes over as CEO of embattled Target, whose social issues fallout has contributed to the company’s stock losing more than 17% over the past year.

After gaining less than 4% in 2025 and finishing second-worst among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, consumer staples stocks are staging a comeback this year.

Just over a month into 2026, the consumer staples sector has posted a gain of nearly 9%, trailing only the energy and materials sectors’ gains of nearly 12% and 10%, respectively.

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While the rotation out of tech has benefited these defensive sectors, two of America’s largest retailers have also helped drive the early-year strength.

Target (NYSE: TGT) and Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT)have posted YTD gains of nearly 11% and more than 13%, respectively. With both companies now under new leadership, investors are weighing arguments for each as they hope consumer staples’ early success continues.

Walmart Picks a Familiar Face to Succeed McMillon

On the back of a more than 24% gain in 2025, Walmart joined the $1 trillion market-cap club on Tuesday, Feb. 3—just three days into the tenure of newly appointed president and CEO John Furner.

Furner, who took the reins on Feb. 1, is following in the footsteps of Doug McMillon, Walmart’s fifth CEO, who led the company for 12 years. McMillon began with Walmart as a 17-year-old summer stock associate in 1984.

McMillon notably steered Walmart through a digital transformation, turning the membership-based Walmart+ into a meaningful competitor to Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) while keeping Sam’s Club competitive with Costco (NASDAQ: COST).

When the company reports its Q4 fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) earnings on Feb. 19, it will reflect the final quarter of McMillon’s tenure—a legacy Furner will look to build on, following 14 earnings and revenue beats in the past 16 quarters.

Furner, who also began his Walmart career as an hourly associate in 1993, aims to continue his predecessor’s track record of EPS growth, which was 44.08% and 26.18% over the past two years.

One of Furner’s biggest challenges will be maintaining Walmart’s recent momentum while successfully integrating AI across the business. Meanwhile, income-focused investors can rely on the retailer’s steady dividend. The Dividend King has increased its payout for 53 consecutive years, maintains a payout ratio under 33%, and has an annualized five-year dividend growth rate of 3.17%.

Target’s New CEO Faces an Uphill Battle

By contrast, new Target CEO Michael Fiddelke—who previously served as the company’s COO—steps into a more challenging situation after taking over on Feb. 1.

Brian Cornell, Target’s previous CEO, stepped down after 14 years. The end of his tenure was marked by soft financial results driven by weakening consumer sentiment, a struggling grocery business that has ceded shoppers to rivals like Walmart and Costco, and a prolonged slump in higher-margin discretionary categories amid persistent inflation.

The stock has suffered, losing more than 57% from its five-year high in August 2021, a decline compounded by revenue shortfalls in 2023 and 2024 and negative EPS in 2024.

Target has missed earnings expectations in three of the past seven quarters and missed revenue in five of those quarters.

For patient investors who view Target’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.80 as a sign of recovery potential, the stock—also a Dividend King—yields 4.10% versus its peers’ 0.74%, and has an annualized five-year dividend growth rate of 11.30%.

What Analysts Think of Walmart and Target

Given Walmart’s recent run and consumer staples’ steady demand, analysts are largely bullish on WMT: 32 of the 34 covering the stock assign it a Buy rating. Still, Walmart’s average 12-month price target of $123.93 implies roughly 3% downside from current levels.

By comparison, most of the 34 analysts covering Target assign it a Hold rating, with an average 12-month price target of $103.21—more than 7% below current prices.

Short interest also tells a different story: Target’s current short interest is 3.79% of the float, while Walmart’s short interest is just 0.50%, suggesting more bearish sentiment around Target.

Institutional activity patterns differ as well. Target has nearly 80% institutional ownership and has seen more than $12 billion in inflows over the past 12 months versus just shy of $7 billion in outflows. Walmart’s institutional ownership is lower in this dataset at under 27%, but reported inflows of over $52 billion in the past 12 months—more than double outflows of nearly $24 billion.

On MarketBeat’s scoring, Target ranks higher than 87% of companies evaluated, placing 43rd out of 201 stocks in the retail/wholesale sector; Walmart ranks 86th out of 201 and scores higher than 72%.

Walmart’s notable advantage is its TradeSmith financial health score: the company has been in the Green Zone for more than nine months, while Target has spent the majority of the past year in the Red Zone.

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