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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media

Nebius’ Q4 Earnings Miss Doesn’t Change Its Growth Narrative

Authored by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 2/13/2026. 

Article Highlights

• Nebius missed fiscal Q4 estimates, but revenue growth of nearly 547% and accelerating AI cloud demand were the big stories.
• Heavy spending tied to capacity expansion weighed on earnings while improving operational metrics.
• Analysts see long-term upside, balanced against execution, financing, and short-interest risks.

Following its Q4 2025 earnings release, shares of Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) pulled back as investors digested the results. The decline may be justified: the company missed both top- and bottom-line forecasts. But the miss should be put in context—the bar was set very high and growth remains robust.

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Nebius reported massive revenue growth driven by its shift to AI cloud services and contracts with major hyperscalers, including Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META).

The key takeaway isn’t the missed estimates but that the business is booming. The earnings shortfalls are tied to increased spending, which supports expansion and future growth.

Nebius Accelerates in Q4: Guides for Acceleration in 2026

Nebius reported a robust quarter with revenue up 55% sequentially and nearly 550% year-over-year (YOY). The top line missed consensus, but the miss was modest—about 280 basis points—and was offset by guidance for sustained growth. Internal metrics, including operational capacity and annual recurring revenue, came in above the company’s most recently issued guidance.

Margin news is mixed. Reported losses widened as the company invested heavily in capacity expansion, product development and GPUs. Those losses are largely due to CapEx and expansion, however, while operating metrics showed improvement.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) came in at $15 million, indicating Nebius’ ability to generate profits. The main hurdles are execution and scale, which currently appear manageable.

If Nebius’ 2026 guidance proves credible, it could sustain an elevated growth pace through year-end. Capacity is currently sold out as the company and its clients await new data-center buildouts. Nebius is on track to more than double its footprint, with many projects in the United States and Europe slated to come online this year. Expansion plans include a new data center in France that, when completed, will be among the largest in the region and strengthen the long-term outlook.

Analysts Cautiously Optimistic on Nebius Expansion

Analysts’ reaction to Nebius’ Q4 results and updated outlook has been generally optimistic: some price targets were raised, at least one rating was upgraded, and several bullish initiations were issued. They point to strong results and aggressive expansion while flagging risks such as project delays and financing needs. Rapid expansion is capital-intensive and could require additional capital that increases debt or dilution.

The Q4 balance sheet highlights those risks, including a notable increase in debt. Still, the company appears sufficiently capitalized to execute its near-term plans without seeking immediate additional funding.

With revenue ramping and operating profitability improving, Nebius may be in a favorable position. MarketBeat tracks 10 analysts with current ratings; they peg the stock at Moderate Buy. Price targets are rising and the consensus implies more than 60% upside from February support levels.

Institutions and Short-Sellers Set up NBIS for a Robust Rebound

Short sellers represent a risk for NBIS investors. At nearly 15% of the float, current short interestis relatively high and could limit near- to mid-term gains. The upside is that institutions are accumulating, analysts are optimistic, and the outlook is constructive—so short covering could begin in early 2026. Short covering would support a rally, and positive news could trigger a short squeeze, potentially lifting the stock 25%–50% in a short period. The key resistance level is the recent highs near $135; a sustained move above that mark would be a meaningful pivot.

Post-release trading was mixed. The stock fell in early trading but recovered from the lows, suggesting a blend of caution and optimism. In the near term, NBIS may linger near February lows until a stronger catalyst emerges.

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