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Additional Reading from MarketBeat
A Christmas Stress Test: Why Diesel Pricing Stress Means Profits
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 12/30/2025.
Summary
- The structural shortage of diesel fuel has created a supply shock that keeps profit margins historically high for companies that manufacture the product.
- Valero Energy utilizes its highly efficient refining network to capture maximum value from the current disconnect between fuel prices and freight volume.
- Phillips 66 is actively reshaping the market and unlocking shareholder value by streamlining its portfolio and closing high-cost assets to tighten supply.
Every December, the global supply chain undergoes a massive pressure test commonly called the Christmas Stress Test.
In a normal year, millions of holiday packages flood the logistics network. That surge typically drives up both freight volumes (the amount of goods moving) and fuel demand. The 2025 holiday season, however, produced a rare anomaly that has left many investors puzzled.
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Freight volumes remained relatively soft, suggesting consumers and businesses were spending cautiously, yet diesel prices surged. That contradicts the usual relationship between supply and demand: weak demand typically pushes fuel prices lower. Instead, the cost of moving goods rose even as the volume of goods moving slowed.
For general industrial stocks such as FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and retailers like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), this is a clear warning sign. Higher transportation costs paired with softer volumes point to margin pressure heading into the first quarter of 2026. If it costs more to move fewer products, earnings will likely suffer.
By contrast, companies that manufacture fuel stand to benefit. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) are well positioned to profit from the diesel disconnect. While the broader economy worries about sticky inflation and logistics costs, these refiners are capitalizing on a market that is structurally short on supply.
The December Crack Back and the Diesel Margin Surge
To understand why these stocks are rising, investors should know about the crack spread. This metric represents the difference between the price refiners pay for crude oil and the selling price of refined products like diesel — effectively the refiner’s gross profit margin.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, markets saw what traders are calling the December Crack Back. Margins for Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) in the New York Harbor market surged to roughly $49 per barrel in late December — more than double the low $20s seen in October.
This spike was driven not by booming demand but by a supply shock. Three main factors combined to keep prices elevated:
- Geopolitics: Tightened sanctions on Russian oil companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil in late 2025 effectively removed a significant volume of diesel from the global export market.
- Winter Weather: Diesel and home heating oil are chemically similar. A cold snap in late 2025 boosted heating oil demand, drawing down the same inventories used for trucking.
- Capacity Cuts: Domestic refiners have permanently shuttered facilities to reduce costs, leaving fewer barrels available.
For the broader economy, high fuel prices amid a freight slowdown increase the risk of a harder landing in 2026. For the refining sector, however, the shortage establishes a high profit floor: even with fewer trucks on the road, the margin on each gallon sold remains historically large.
Valero Energy: The Operational Powerhouse
In a market short on diesel, the refiner with the most functioning capacity gains the most.
Valero Energy has emerged as the operational frontrunner. The stock has outperformed the broader energy sector, rising roughly 35% year-to-date.
Valero’s strategy centers on operational excellence. While some competitors have been distracted by restructurings, Valero has prioritized running its plants efficiently. In the third quarter of 2025, the company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $3.66, beating analyst expectations.
The company’s refineries have been operating at near 97% utilization. In a market where margins reach $49 per barrel, high utilization directly translates into substantial free cash flow.
Valero is also investing in lower-carbon fuels. Through Diamond Green Diesel (DGD), its joint venture with Darling Ingredients, Valero expanded capacity at its Port Arthur facility in 2025 to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). That diversification gives investors exposure to both the immediate diesel upside and the longer-term transition in energy.
Phillips 66: The Architect of the Squeeze
While Valero benefits from running hard, Phillips 66 has actively reshaped the market — and in doing so has helped lift industry-wide margins.
In October 2025, Phillips 66 stopped crude processing at its Los Angeles refinery (Wilmington/Carson), removing about 139,000 barrels per day of supply from the West Coast market. Taking that capacity offline tightened the local market and pushed up prices for fuel produced by remaining assets.
That decision followed pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which urged the company to improve performance. Phillips 66 responded with its Streamline 66 initiative, aimed at cutting costs and boosting shareholder returns.
The company has made progress, surpassing its $3 billion asset divestiture target by late 2025 with sales that included a Swiss retail stake and various pipeline assets.
Investment firm Raymond James maintained an Outperform rating on Phillips 66 in late December, pointing to the effectiveness of these self-help measures. For investors, Phillips 66 represents a strategic play: value creation through portfolio optimization, buybacks, and cost reduction rather than purely through higher production volumes.
2026 Outlook: How to Position Your Portfolio
The 2025 Christmas Stress Test clarified the investment landscape for the coming year: the global market faces a structural shortage of diesel refining capacity. That shortage insulates refiners from some of the economic pressures that may hurt other industrial sectors.
Investors seeking exposure to this disconnect have two clear approaches:
- The Offensive Play: Valero Energy offers direct exposure to elevated profit margins. High utilization and established renewable diesel operations make it a primary beneficiary of the current price environment.
- The Strategic Play: Phillips 66 provides a restructuring narrative. By closing higher-cost assets and executing on divestitures and buybacks, it aims to unlock balance-sheet value beyond cyclically higher margins.
As we move into 2026, the data suggest that while higher shipping costs could weigh on the broader economy, refiners are likely to remain a relative bright spot for portfolios.
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