If You Can’t Beat ’Em, Buy ’Em: Celsius’ Instagram Moment

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BY ANDY SWAN, FOUNDER, LIKEFOLIO

In 2012, Facebook (META) was losing its grip on the cool crowd – until it made one of the boldest moves in tech history…

Stop competing – but keep winning. A playbook that’s still very much in effect, in all industries.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg realized his blue app worked on desktops, but the future was mobile. And the app winning on mobile was Instagram.

Instagram’s 2011 App Icon (Source: Internet Archive)

The photo sharing app was barely two years old. It had just 13 employees running the show for 50 million users. It wasn’t even available on Androids yet. And it was bringing in zero revenue.

What it did have was cultural gravity: Filters that made everyday photos feel special. A simple, mobile-first design that felt natural to younger users.

On college campuses, in coffee shops, and among influential celebrities like Kim Kardashian, Instagram was where the energy was shifting.

Source: X

Zuckerberg saw the threat. He also saw the opportunity, laying it out internally for his team prior to the acquisition in a series of emails that came to light in 2020:

“How much we should be willing to pay to acquire mobile app companies like Instagram… These companies have the properties where they have millions of users (up to about 20m at the moment for Instagram), fast growth, a small team (10-25 employees) and no revenue.

The businesses are nascent but the networks are established, the brands are already meaningful and if they grow to a large scale they could be very disruptive to us.

These entrepreneurs don’t want to sell (largely inspired our success), but at a high enough price – like $500m or $1b – they’d have to consider it… we’re vulnerable in mobile…”

Rather than compete, he made a billion-dollar offer – for a company that had never sold a single ad.

People called it reckless. “The price was stunning for an apps-maker without any significant revenue, even when measured by the lofty standards of Silicon Valley…” Reutersreporters wrote at the time.

Source: Reuters

But the bet paid off.

Instagram became the growth engine inside Meta, set to account for more than half of the company’s advertising revenue this year – and generating more money per user than any other social media platform (TikTok included).

Source: eMarketer

Advertisers flocked to Instagram because that’s where young consumers were spending their time, scrolling Reels and Stories on their phones for an average 33.9 minutes per day.

Instagram gave Facebook a lifeline in the mobile era and transformed META into one of the most powerful advertising companies in the world.

For Zuckerberg, the decision was simple: If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. It paid off.

Today, that same decision is on display in the energy drink aisle – where you’ll now find not one, but two, powerhouse brands from Celsius Holdings (CELH)…

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What Instagram Did for Meta, This Brand Could Do for Celsius

The universe of investable opportunities we cover here at LikeFolio is enormous: At any given time, we’re tracking consumer sentiment for nearly 500 companies – mostly public, some private, and even a few cryptocurrencies – and within those companies, thousands of brands.

That coverage is constantly expanding, too. Because the more data our system analyzes, the stronger its predictive power becomes – and the better it gets at spotting stocks ready for liftoff.

Yet even after a decade of honing this social media-driven investing edge, we still find the sweetest victories often come from placing bets on proven winners.

I’m talking about stocks our data engine flagged when they were just starting to show signs of explosive growth yet were still flying under the radar for most investors.

Just like Celsius was when we first initiated coverage on the up-and-coming energy drink contender in 2020 – back when it was still a sub-$7 stock.

Over the last five years, the energy drink touted as “good-for-you” and embraced by fitness enthusiasts rose from underdog to true segment disruptor. A 2022 distribution pact with PepsiCo (PEP) put its cans in gas stations, supermarkets, and gyms across the country. By 2023, Celsius muscled out Rockstar Energy to claim the energy drink market’s No. 3 spot behind Red Bull and Monster Energy (MNST).

Celsius scaled rapidly with zero-sugar, fitness-focused energy drinks that attracted gym-goers, health-conscious shoppers, and young professionals looking for clean energy without the crash.

For several years, revenue growth was nothing short of explosive, triple-digit gains quarter after quarter – and all along the way, LikeFolio members reaped the profits. Four buy alerts between 2021 and 2024 netted our followers +15.8%, +68.41%, +93.85%, and a stunning +389.69%.

But Celsius’s high-octane growth streak began to slow in 2024. Sales were still climbing, yet the pace of expansion was easing, and investors started asking what the next chapter would be.

“At Its Lowest Level Since July 2022, Has Celsius Stock Finally Fallen Enough?”

– Nasdaq.com, Jan. 28, 2025

Meanwhile, across the aisle, a challenger was heating up.

Alani Nu.

Source: Celsius Holdings

Launched in Louisville in 2018, the brand took a different approach to energy. Pastel cans, influencer clout, and a loyal female fan base that Monster and Red Bull had never cracked. It turned energy drinks into a lifestyle, something consumers were proud to post on Instagram.

Source: Instagram

In less than seven years, Alani Nu surged past a billion dollars in retail sales, becoming a fixture in gyms, supplement shops, and college towns.

Celsius could have tried to fight it. Instead, it made the Instagram move.

Zuckerberg’s Playbook Is Paying Off Once Again

In February 2025, Celsius announced it would acquire Alani Nu for $1.8 billion. The deal closed April 1. In its first quarter under the Celsius umbrella, Alani Nu generated $301 million in sales, helping fuel CELH’s quarterly revenue 84% higher year over year to a record $739 million.

Based on LikeFolio’s consumer demand data, Celsius’s Alani Nu growth engine is only just kicking into high gear. Alani Nu web visits are currently rocketing +144% higher year over year – and Celsius’s namesake brand is gaining momentum, too:

Translation: The same predictive LikeFolio metrics that identified the opportunity in CELH four times over already now point to a new era of profits for the company and its investors.

Alani Nu grew fast without the benefit of a global distribution engine. Celsius already has that through Pepsi. The same trucks that made Celsius ubiquitous can now carry Alani Nu into supermarkets, convenience stores, and college campuses nationwide.

What our hometown Louisville has known for years is about to go global.

For Celsius, Alani Nu adds more than shelf space. It brings cultural relevance in a demographic it had struggled to reach. For Alani Nu, Celsius unlocks scale that would have taken years to build alone.

When Facebook bought Instagram, it wasn’t buying revenue. It was buying the future. Celsius may have just done the same.

Through our team-up with TradeSmith, we’re putting the same LikeFolio consumer insights that delivered CELH profits four times over in the hands of everyday investors like you.

Join MegaTrends today, and I’ll make sure you get the next Celsius-level winner straight to your inbox so the next time we’re having this conversation, those 389% gains are already in YOUR bank.

Here’s how.

Until next time,

Andy Swan
Founder, LikeFolio