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Just For You

Johnson & Johnson Quietly Triggers a Trend Following Buy Signal

Written by Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 1/23/2026. 

Article Highlights

• Johnson & Johnson pulled back into a trend-following entry after its Q4 2025 release and guidance update.
• Analysts and institutional trends support the stock’s price action and point to new highs in 2026.
• Capital return and capital return growth are factors, with both reliable for the foreseeable future.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), amid the chatter around Trump’s Greenland agenda and renewed trade-war concerns, is quietly executing its healthcare strategy: growing revenue and widening margins. A recent earnings release and 2026 guidance update, though fundamentally strong, prompted a price pullback that created a trend-following opportunity.

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What is a trend-following signal? Assuming the trend is up, as it is with JNJ stock, a trend-following signal occurs when the price action retreats to an established trend indicator—such as a moving average or trend line—and then confirms support at that level. That confirmation indicates buyer interest and a high potential for rebound, while lowering the risk of the entry. The likely result is that the stock resumes its steady advance and sets fresh highs in the near term.

Johnson & Johnson’s Healthy Business and Pipeline Underpin Stock Price Action

Johnson & Johnson’s Q4 results highlight the strength of its portfolio and pipeline. Revenue rose 9.1% year-over-year, roughly 200 basis points ahead of expectations. The gains were driven by core strength in Innovative Medicine and MedTech, helped by recent acquisitions. Organic growth was 7.1% while adjusted growth was 6.1%, and management expects to sustain a mid-single-digit pace in 2026.

Margins were a clear area of strength and came in roughly in line with consensus. Adjusted earnings showed meaningful improvement over the prior year and generally met expectations.

With adjusted earnings up more than 20%, the report strengthened an already solid balance sheet and bolstered the capital-return outlook.

Management’s guidance was constructive—and likely conservative. The company targets 6.7% revenue growth and margin expansion, both of which sit above consensus estimates.

Momentum in core franchises (notably blockbusters like Darzalex) and continued pipeline advancement could enable the firm to beat its own guidance in the next quarterly report.

Finally, J&J reported positive trial results and submitted its OTTAVA robotic surgical system for De Novo classification. If approved, OTTAVA could open a new revenue stream with potential for high double-digit growth over several years.

Johnson & Johnson Results Align With Bullish Analyst Trends

Given the Q4 strength and the outlook, Johnson & Johnson’s bullish analyst trends look set to continue. The 29 analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate the stock a Moderate Buy, and price targets have been rising.

The consensus price target implies the stock is near fair value relative to the pre-release close, but the prevailing trend points toward the high end of the range—enough for roughly 10% upside and a fresh all-time high.

Institutions also accumulated shares in 2025 and early 2026, which helps limit downside should the stock pull back.

Johnson & Johnson’s dividend is another reason analysts and institutions favor the stock. The yield is nearly 2.5% even with shares near record highs, and it is expected to grow over time.

The company is a Dividend King, with more than 60 consecutive years of annual increases. A relatively low payout ratio of about 50% suggests modest, single-digit increases are sustainable for the foreseeable future.

Key risks for JNJ shareholders in 2026 include ongoing talc litigation, competition from biosimilars to Stelara, and execution risk around the OTTAVA launch. A court recently allowed the plaintiff’s expert testimony in the talc cases to proceed—a challenge for the company, though J&J will have the opportunity to rebut that testimony. Meanwhile, Stelara lost patent protection in 2025 and is facing increasing biosimilar competition; Stelara sales, which represented roughly 11.5% of 2024 revenue, fell more than 40% in 2025.

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