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Today’s Exclusive Article
Atlassian Has Been Crushed—But the Setup Into Earnings Is Shifting
By Sam Quirke. Article Published: 1/24/2026.

Summary
- Atlassian has been aggressively sold to multi-year lows, despite generating its most revenue ever.
- The extreme pessimism has pushed momentum into oversold territory, but there are already signs of a reversal.
- With some analysts calling for as much as 75% upside from here, Atlassian looks like a diamond in the rough.
Shares of tech stock Atlassian Corp. (NASDAQ: TEAM) are trading around $130 after starting the year above $160. Considering the S&P 500 is up more than 1% over the same period, it has been a pretty brutal start to the year for investors in the stock.
That may not surprise investors: the stock is down more than 60% year-over-year and has hit fresh multi-year lows. Atlassian lagged throughout 2025, and the weakness this month has already made it the worst-performing large-cap stock of 2026 to date.
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On the surface, that kind of move looks like a clear vote of no confidence and will be enough for many investors to steer clear. For contrarians, though, this setup deserves a closer look. With Atlassian’s next earnings report due in less than two weeks, there are several reasons to think this could be a buying opportunity—here are the top three.
Reason #1: Wall Street Sees Upside in Atlassian Stock
One clear sign that sentiment may have diverged from fundamentals is the sell-side stance. Over the past three weeks, multiple firms have reiterated Buy or equivalent ratings on Atlassian. Mizuho, which named the stock one of its favorite picks heading into 2026, recently gave it an Outperform rating and a $225 price target. Citigroup issued a Buy with a $210 target, while Piper Sandler and BTIG Research also struck a bullish tone.
The common thread across these updates is that the market has become overly negative about the impact of AI agents and automation on Atlassian’s growth prospects. Analysts generally agree these concerns are being misinterpreted and exaggerated; AI is more likely to enhance Atlassian’s platform than to undermine its core value proposition. When analysts see as much as 75% upside, it’s hard not to respect the potential—even if the chart looks rough.
Reason #2: Oversold Readings Suggest Atlassian Is Stabilizing
From a technical standpoint, Atlassian’s chart has looked ugly, but it is starting to show signs of stabilization. Earlier this month, the stock’s relative strength index (RSI) fell as low as 19, putting it firmly in extremely oversold territory. Since then, RSI has moved back above the sub-30 danger zone and is trending higher—a classic sign that selling pressure is easing.
This week’s price action supports that view. Atlassian has rallied roughly 10% over the past three sessions, a notable shift after weeks of relentless selling. The stock is also trading near long-term support levels and roughly in the same zone where sellers retreated three years ago. It may be too soon to call a full trend reversal, but these signals often mark the transition from selling to consolidation.
Reason #3: Atlassian’s Fundamentals Still Look Solid
Perhaps the most persuasive argument against the market’s reaction is that Atlassian’s fundamentals remain intact. The company has routinely topped analyst expectations, and its most recent earnings report delivered record revenue. That’s not the result you’d expect from a business in terminal decline.
There are also signs Atlassian’s own AI initiatives are beginning to gain traction, which helps counter fears it will be left behind as software becomes more automated. Meanwhile, the stock’s valuation has become more attractive after a year of heavy selling, leaving the risk/reward profile improved versus recent memory.
None of this removes risk. Atlassian has been a difficult stock to own, and confidence won’t return overnight. But with the risk/reward looking this favorable, the market may already have priced in the worst-case scenario. If the company can once again top analyst expectations in two weeks, that may be enough to spark a meaningful recovery rally.
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