RJ Hamster
How Long-Term Investors Should Handle the Headlines
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
Trump: Iran had better ‘get serious’… How long-term investors should handle the headlines… Mortgage rates are back on the rise… More private-credit funds halt redemptions… What to avoid in the ‘Year of the Bear’…
The week’s ‘good news’ just reversed…
In a post on Truth Social today, President Donald Trump said Iran needs to “get serious soon, before it is too late.” He also warned that the future “won’t be pretty” if Iran doesn’t make a deal.
All of this comes after the five-day “pause” on energy assets that Trump announced before markets opened on Monday. That was the good news that powered a 1.3% rebound in the S&P 500 Index through yesterday’s close.
We haven’t heard anything further on extending that deadline.
Trump said Iran let 10 ships through the Strait of Hormuz as a “present” to the U.S. But the uncertainty over what may come after the short “ceasefire” expires was too much to outweigh the unknown.
Stocks headed lower again today, with all three major indexes down more than 1% – and the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way with a 2.3% loss. On the other side of the Iran war trade, West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped back above $94 per barrel.
In a cabinet meeting today, Trump shrugged off the fears. Stocks are approaching the six-month low they set last week, and oil is up 60% this year. Trump said the market moves weren’t as bad as he expected.
As we’ve noted a couple times this week, the S&P 500 remains below its 200-day moving average and is in a short-term downtrend. So the short-term stock market losses may not be finished yet – and may meet Trump’s lower expectations.
Long-term investors should keep ignoring the noise…
Headlines from the conflict in Iran are changing multiple times a day. And that’s a big reason for the volatility we’ve seen in stocks recently. But it doesn’t mean you should sell your stocks and wait for clearer waters.
As our colleague and Stansberry’s Investment Advisory editor Whitney Tilson wrote in his free daily e-letter yesterday, he has no reaction to the latest Iran headlines. The recent pullback – with the S&P 500 about 7% off its all-time highs – is nothing new.
From Whitney…
This is the 32nd time the market has experienced a 5% or greater correction since the generational bottom in March 2009 during the global financial crisis. And five of these declines were more than 20%.
And even in the past few years, stock market corrections have been short-lived. More from Whitney…
Do you remember the 10.3% drop in 2023? The S&P 500 was up 26.3% for the year.
The 8.5% decline in 2024? The S&P 500 was up 25% for the year.
The 18.9% crash in April 2025? The S&P 500 was up 17.9% for the year.
Elsewhere, mortgage rates have the housing market back on ice…
Last month, we wrote that mortgage rates had dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022. As our colleague and True Wealth editor Brett Eversole has said, that’s the level we need to see to thaw the housing market.
But we warned that mortgage rates would have to fall even further to really unlock the housing market. From that February 25 Digest…
Still, more than two-thirds of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5%, and more than half have a mortgage rate below 4%. So mortgage rates will have to continue heading lower to unlock more prospective buyers.
Since hitting that low, mortgage rates have jumped higher in a straight line…
At about 6.5%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now at a six-month high. And costlier mortgages have pushed more buyers out of the market.
That’s what we saw in the weekly mortgage applications report from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The Purchases Index, which measures mortgage applications for folks looking to buy a home, fell about 5% from last week to this week.
As long as mortgage rates are above 6%, we’re going to see housing activity take a breather. And that could take away any of the momentum that we mentioned last month.
Folks still want their money out of private-credit funds…
Regular Digest readers know this is another trend we’ve been following.
Private credit means direct loans to businesses. And some lenders have let investors own a piece of this debt in private-credit funds.
The trend took off – for a while. Lately, sentiment has reversed.
In the past six months, redemption requests to private-credit funds have tripled. This week alone, private-equity firms Ares and Apollo Global have limited redemptions from some of their private-credit funds. In both cases, investors tried to withdraw 11% of the shares outstanding, and the companies limited the redemptions to 5%.
That means for each investor who requested a redemption, they’ll get less than half of the money they asked for.
By limiting redemptions, private-equity and private-credit firms are preventing a “run” on their funds where everyone asks for their money all at once. That would lead to a “fire sale” of the assets – sending prices plummeting.
But the moves won’t do much to attract new investors to these private-credit funds.
Shareholders in private-credit companies are fleeing, too…
We can see that in the shares of private-equity companies. There are no “redemption limits” on the companies’ stocks, so we can get an idea of just how bearish folks are on private equity…
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is down 40% this year, Apollo Global (APO) is down nearly 25%, and Ares Management (ARES) is down nearly 35%.
There will likely be some “babies thrown out with the bath water” in the private-equity space. Brett recommended one last week in True Wealth (subscribers and Alliance members can see that issue here). And as we wrote in the March 10 Digest, at least one hedge-fund owner has begun to see a buying opportunity in private-credit funds.
But in general, we wouldn’t recommend trying to time the bottom in these stocks. Instead, we’ll leave you with Whitney’s conclusion from yesterday’s e-letter…
If you hold high-quality stocks, well-managed funds, and/or low-fee index funds, sit tight and ignore the headlines.
If you have some extra cash, you can look to take advantage of the mini sell-off by doing some buying.
Most importantly, don’t get sucked into whatever stocks or sectors Wall Street is promoting.
That’s good advice for any market environment – not just today’s with Iran headlines and private-credit worries.
In case you missed it…
Last night, Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin went live with his brand-new presentation. For months, Marc has been calling 2026 the “Year of the Bear.”
And now, Marc told viewers exactly when the “bear market window” would open. As Marc said last night…
On March 31, the U.S. stock market enters its very own “hurricane season.”
A window of time where – based on 75 years of market history – conditions are unusually favorable for bear markets.
He also told viewers how they can position themselves in the next few days to protect their wealth. Plus, he named Chaikin Analytics’ No. 1 stock and ETF to avoid in the Year of the Bear.
(Here’s a hint… They’re not the sorts of investments that Whitney says you can buy and hold.)
If you missed last night’s event, we urge you to view the replay right here.
Recommended Links:
Here’s What You Missed Last Night
Volatility is spiking… Fear is rising… Hedge funds are on a selling spree… And tech is crumbling. But is this the start of the worst stock losses we’ve seen in years? Marc Chaikin has called almost every market twist and turn of the past few years, including the 2020 and 2022 crashes. Today, he explains what’s happening… and the ONE move you must make to prepare by March 31. Learn more here.
Guess Which Tech Stock Is About to Crash Next?
No one believed Whitney Tilson when he predicted the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers… or when he went on 60 Minutesexposing a company for poisoning its own customers. (The stock fell nearly 80%.) Now he has a new warning about what’s REALLY around the corner for America’s most beloved tech companies. Watch for free here.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/25/26): Antero Resources (AR), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BWX Technologies (BWXT), Chord Energy (CHRD), Ciena (CIEN), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Diversified Energy (DEC), EOG Resources (EOG), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), EQT (EQT), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), GE Vernova (GEV), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Matador Resources (MTDR), New York Times (NYT), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), and Valaris (VAL).
In today’s mailbag, more feedback on Stansberry Research analyst Josh Baylin’s new research advisory, Mosaic Trader, exclusively available right now for Stansberry Alliance members… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
“I had been wondering what happened to Josh, as I enjoyed reading his occasional contributions to DailyWealth… I’m very happy to see that he now has his own platform…” – Subscriber Sherwin R.
All the best,
Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
March 26, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,292.2%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,196.9%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08787.0%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09768.7%Retirement MillionaireCIEN
Ciena10/20/22730.2%Stansberry Innovations ReportSII
Sprott01/11/18649.2%Extreme ValueGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16617.6%Retirement MillionaireWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12599.0%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09592.1%Extreme ValueHSY
Hershey12/07/07560.1%Stansberry’s Investment Advisory
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc3Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter1Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/181,797.4%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,782.9%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,008.8%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21642.8%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21472.3%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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