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More Reading from MarketBeat

After +50% Return in 2025, GM Gets Off to a Strong Start in 2026

Written by Leo Miller. Publication Date: 1/29/2026. 

Quick Look

• General Motors’ shares jumped after a strong adjusted EPS beat and upbeat 2026 guidance.
• A large Q4 special-charge package weighed on GAAP results but appeared largely priced in.
• The stock’s outlook hinges on free cash flow durability and how EV adoption evolves in the United States.

U.S. automotive giant General Motors (NYSE: GM) just saw its historic rally get another boost. In 2025, shares of GM delivered a total return of more than 54%, marking the stock’s best calendar-year performance since its 2010 relisting on the NYSE.

The stock jumped again on Jan. 27, rising 8.8% as markets reacted to the company’s Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings report and as Wall Street analysts turned more bullish on the name.

GM Posts Strong EPS Beat, Eyes Double-Digit Earnings Growth in 2026

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In Q4, GM reported revenues of about $45.3 billion, a decline of 5.1%. That was slightly below analysts’ forecast of $45.8 billion (a 4% decline). Despite missing on revenue, the company posted a solid beat on adjusted earnings per share (EPS): $2.51 versus expectations of $2.26. Adjusted EPS rose nearly 31% year-over-year, versus estimates near 18%.

For the full year 2026, GM expects adjusted EPS in a range of $11 to $13. The midpoint of that guidance modestly exceeds the analyst consensus of $11.95. Against full-year adjusted EPS of $10.60 in 2025, the midpoint implies roughly 13% earnings growth in 2026.

Wall Street reacted positively to the results, with several firms raising price targets in the days that followed. The consensus price target on GM is near $85 — essentially the same as the stock’s Jan. 28 closing price. However, targets published between Jan. 27 and Jan. 28 were considerably more optimistic, averaging just over $100 and implying further upside of roughly 18% from that close.

GM Takes $7+ Billion Charge Amid EV Slowdown, China Restructuring

A notable blemish in the report was full-year net income attributable to shareholders of $2.7 billion, well below the company’s midpoint guidance of $8 billion. GM said this shortfall was largely driven by about $7.2 billion of special charges recorded in Q4.

Faced with a weakening environment for electric vehicles (EVs), GM cut production capacity and took impairment charges on EV-related assets. It also reached settlements with suppliers that had expected a certain level of orders, and it recorded charges related to restructuring its joint venture in China with SAIC Motor.

Those items flowed through the income statement as one-time expenses (or losses), reducing pre-tax profit and, ultimately, net income.

The company had first disclosed it would take these charges earlier in January, a revelation that pushed GM shares down about 2.7% on Jan. 9. Because the market had already priced in much of this news, the charges did not materially change the market’s reaction to the earnings release.

GM’s Rally May Still Have Considerable Tread on the Tires

Even after a very strong 2025, General Motors does not look excessively expensive. The company generated $10.6 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow in 2025 despite industry headwinds.

For 2026, GM’s midpoint guidance for adjusted automotive free cash flow is $10 billion, with U.S. industry-wide auto sales expected to decline moderately. Sustaining free cash flow near these levels will be key to GM’s long-term financial health.

If GM can maintain free cash flow around these amounts, its valuation—roughly 7x forward earnings based on 2026 guidance—looks reasonable and leaves room for upside.

EV Adoption Slows, But Long-Term Growth Still Shapes GM’s Strategy

U.S. EV sales declined in 2025 and lost market share relative to other vehicle types. Kelley Blue Book estimates that EVs accounted for 7.8% of new-car sales in the U.S. in 2025, down from 8.1% in 2024. Still, analysts expect EVs to capture much larger share over the long term. Big Four accounting firm Ernst & Young (EY) projects EVs could represent 32% of U.S. light-vehicle sales by 2035.

That makes GM’s decision to scale back some EV capacity notable, though the company is not abandoning EVs. EY also warns of “policy roadblocks” that could keep EV market share nearer 11% by 2029, reflecting potential regulatory and incentive uncertainties. A slower adoption pace would give GM additional time to refine its EV strategy while continuing to generate profits from internal-combustion vehicles.

GM’s leading position in full-size pickups and SUVs should also provide some insulation from EV-related headwinds. Those vehicles carry some of the industry’s highest margins and have been slower to electrify. Overall, GM appears well-positioned over the next few years, supporting an optimistic outlook for the stock — though competition and shifts in the EV landscape merit continued scrutiny.

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