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Featured Article from MarketBeat
Is Nutanix the Best Comeback Trade Left in 2025? The Setup Says Yes
Written by Sam Quirke. Article Published: 12/15/2025.
Quick Look
- Nutanix is back at early-2024 price levels after a brutal 40% drop since September.
- However, technical pressure is easing as momentum stabilizes from deeply oversold conditions.
- Analysts remain broadly bullish, arguing the sell-off reflects timing issues more than anything else.
Shares of Nutanix (NASDAQ: NTNX)closed just under $48 last week, extending what’s become a frustrating end to the year for investors. The software companyis down about 40% from its September highs and more than 20% over the past three weeks alone.
While it could be argued that Nutanix never fully found its footing in 2025, the most recent drop followed an earnings report that spooked rather than calmed the market and accelerated selling pressure. Although the pullback had some justification, the setup for the final weeks of the year now offers a potentially favorable risk/reward balance.
Dodgy Earnings and an Excessive Reaction
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The latest sell-off was triggered by Nutanix’s late-November earnings report, which delivered a combination no investor likes: a revenue miss and reduced forward guidance. At first glance, that combination almost always results in fresh selling pressure.
But the details matter. Management said many deals closed late in the quarter with future start dates, pushing revenue recognition out of the period. That timing reduced reported revenue and contributed to the miss, but it did not affect free cash flow. In short, the business was done; the timing hurt the optics.
The stock gapped down the following day and ultimately fell about 20% below its pre-earnings level, back to where it began last year. Considering it was still the company’s best quarter on a revenue-booked basis, the magnitude of the sell-off feels excessive.
Improving Technical Setup
The technical setup is interesting for the right reasons, starting with what hasn’t happened since early December. After setting a low in the first few days of the month, the bears have been unable to push Nutanix lower. Each day they fail to do so suggests bulls are regaining control.
Several indicators also point to selling exhaustion: the stock’s Relative Strength Index is moving up from extremely oversold levels, and its MACD recently posted a bullish crossover.
When indicators like these flash green together, they support the idea that the stock is in pre-rally consolidation. For investors hunting for a holiday-season bargain, this is the kind of setup that stands out.
Analysts Remain Bullish
Despite the headline miss and weaker forward guidance, analyst support has stayed largely bullish. Needham, for example, reiterated its Buy rating after the report, trimming its price target to $65while maintaining that revenue timing — not demand — drove the miss.
Morgan Stanley took a similar stance, keeping its Overweight rating and assigning a new $82 price target, implying roughly 70% upside from current levels — not bad for a stock that just posted an underwhelming earnings print.
The common thread among bullish analysts is that Nutanix’s demand trends haven’t cracked. Deferred start dates, revenue-recognition timing and customer migration schedules are being viewed as short-term accounting headwinds rather than structural problems that would justify abandoning the stock.
What to Expect for the Rest of the Month
If Nutanix can continue to consolidate while momentum shifts toward the bulls, don’t be surprised to see a late-stage rally into the holidays.
Given that the company’s revenue engines are still running and analysts remain supportive, if the bears were going to push the stock materially lower they likely would have done so already. That leaves open the possibility that Nutanix could be one of the better comeback trade opportunities left in 2025.
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