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This Week’s Featured Article

ALHC Stock Surges 400%—Here’s Why the Bulls Aren’t Done

Written by Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 1/26/2026. 

Key Points

• Alignment Healthcare stock is up more than 400% since April 2024, as improving Medicare Advantage cost trends and disciplined growth have driven a fundamental re-rating.
• ALHC’s value-based care model positions the company to benefit from a Medicare rebound as hospital economics stabilize and utilization normalizes into 2026.
• While ALHC stock remains technically overextended, the bullish trend is intact, with pullbacks toward key support levels offering favorable risk-reward entries.

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC) is an example of why even buy-and-hold investors need to leave room for nimble movement. ALHC stock is up more than 58% in the last 12 months and more than 415% since April 2024.

In April the stock traded around $4.50 per share — effectively a penny stock at the time.

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Many investors may have anticipated the move because Alignment Healthcare operates in Medicare Advantage and focuses on value-based care. The company’s integrated model combines in-home clinical services, telehealth, and digital health tools.

Over the past two years, health insurance stocks — particularly those tied to Medicare Advantage — have posted strong gains, benefiting from scale, pricing power, and a growing senior population.

The Broader Healthcare Trend Is Turning

According to The Wall Street Journal, hospital stocks that were beaten down are expected to rally: cost inflation is easing, staffing conditions are improving, and reimbursement rates are beginning to stabilize. As these headwinds ease, investor sentiment toward the broader healthcare services ecosystem is likely to improve, including companies tied to Medicare utilization and senior care.

That’s one reason investors can still be bullish on ALHC. The company’s 18-month rally marks a fundamental reset in how the market views its business model.

Medicare Advantage insurers faced a difficult stretch in 2023 and early 2024, driven by higher medical costs and reimbursement uncertainty. Alignment began showing tangible progress in controlling expenses: medical cost trends improved, risk-adjustment capture strengthened, and management shifted toward more disciplined growth.

Those efficiency gains appear to have convinced investors that Alignment’s value-based care strategy can scale profitably. Importantly, the period of pain left the stock leveraged to a potential Medicare rebound once much of the bad news was priced in.

As fears around margin compression have faded, the stock has benefited from both a fundamental re-rating and technical tailwinds, including short covering and renewed interest in mid-cap healthcare names. If hospital economics and Medicare utilization continue to normalize as expected in 2026, Alignment’s integrated care model and its mid-cap positioning could make the company a clear beneficiary of improving industry conditions.

ALHC Stock Looks Overbought, But the Uptrend Is Intact

Despite the positives, now might not be the ideal entry. ALHC is technically extended: the stock is pushing to new 52-week highs and trading well above key moving averages, signaling a strong but stretched uptrend.

The daily RSI in the low 70s and a strongly positive MACD reflect overbought momentum rather than a low-risk entry, so chasing current levels offers poor risk-reward even though the trend remains bullish.

A better approach for investors on the sidelines is to stay constructive on the name but wait for a pullback into support. The first buy zone is around $21.50 to $22 — an area of recent consolidation just below the highs where an initial bounce would favor more aggressive entries.

A more conservative, higher-probability zone is $20.25–$20.75, near the rising 50-day moving average and a prior base. If the stock can hold these levels it would confirm trend integrity. Traders could scale in around the upper zone and add closer to the 50-day, using a stop just below the 20-day SMA to define risk, and target a retest (and modest extension) of the highs in the $24–$25 region, provided pullbacks remain orderly and support holds.

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